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Chris Martenson

Image | The Emperor Has No Clothes
The Emperor Has No Clothes

[Note: This is a recent Martenson Insider post that I am making public. A couple of members thought this topic deserved wider attention and conversation, and I agreed.  Thanks go to MikeP for the title change idea.] 

The NYT had an editorial this past weekend (Feb 6, 2010) that trotted out some dangerous mistruths about the deficit and framed the issue as a left vs. right political game.

I hardly know where to start, but I will note that we’ve had massive accumulations of new debts under every single administration since the early 1980s, and that it hasn’t seemed to matter which party has controlled which branches of government.  One could be forgiven for suspecting that, when it comes to deficit spending, there aren’t two parties, but only one.

The real truth is that we have a culture of reckless spending in DC that transcends either or both parties, and I always lose a bit of trust in those who attempt to paint it otherwise.  This is simply not a partisan issue.

The Emperor Has No Clothes

[Note: This is a recent Martenson Insider post that I am making public. A couple of members thought this topic deserved wider attention and conversation, and I agreed.  Thanks go to MikeP for the title change idea.] 

The NYT had an editorial this past weekend (Feb 6, 2010) that trotted out some dangerous mistruths about the deficit and framed the issue as a left vs. right political game.

I hardly know where to start, but I will note that we’ve had massive accumulations of new debts under every single administration since the early 1980s, and that it hasn’t seemed to matter which party has controlled which branches of government.  One could be forgiven for suspecting that, when it comes to deficit spending, there aren’t two parties, but only one.

The real truth is that we have a culture of reckless spending in DC that transcends either or both parties, and I always lose a bit of trust in those who attempt to paint it otherwise.  This is simply not a partisan issue.

Image | The (Real) Truth About the Deficit
The (Real) Truth About the Deficit
 PREVIEW

The NYT had an editorial this weekend that trotted out some dangerous mistruths about the deficit and framed the issue as a left vs. right political game.

I hardly know where to start, but I will note that we’ve had massive accumulations of new debts under every single administration since the early 1980s, and that it hasn’t seemed to matter which party has controlled which branches of government.  One could be forgiven for suspecting that, when it comes to deficit spending, there aren’t two parties, but only one.

The real truth is that we have a culture of reckless spending in DC that transcends either or both parties, and I always lose a bit of trust in those who attempt to paint it otherwise.  This is simply not a partisan issue.
The (Real) Truth About the Deficit
 PREVIEW

The NYT had an editorial this weekend that trotted out some dangerous mistruths about the deficit and framed the issue as a left vs. right political game.

I hardly know where to start, but I will note that we’ve had massive accumulations of new debts under every single administration since the early 1980s, and that it hasn’t seemed to matter which party has controlled which branches of government.  One could be forgiven for suspecting that, when it comes to deficit spending, there aren’t two parties, but only one.

The real truth is that we have a culture of reckless spending in DC that transcends either or both parties, and I always lose a bit of trust in those who attempt to paint it otherwise.  This is simply not a partisan issue.
Image | The Mystery of Falling Unemployment
The Mystery of Falling Unemployment
 PREVIEW

In January, the rate of unemployment was said to have reduced from 10.0% to 9.7%.  I cannot resist wading into this story, although I tried.  Here goes.

One of the (many) quirks in the US methodology for measuring employment and unemployment is that two entirely different methods are used and reported.  One, called the ‘establishment survey,’ gives us the headline job gains or losses that are reported.  For January 2010, that number was -20,000, indicating that more people were out of work in January than December.

The other, the ‘household survey,’ delivers us the rate of unemployment, which fell from -10.0% to -9.7%, indicating that fewer people were out of work in January than December.

These are entirely separate surveys, and they are nearly impossible to directly compare.  Still, over time, they should at least be directionally aligned, and this departure between the two will resolve itself sooner or later.

I believe that the household number is overstating the gains, and here’s why.

The Mystery of Falling Unemployment
 PREVIEW

In January, the rate of unemployment was said to have reduced from 10.0% to 9.7%.  I cannot resist wading into this story, although I tried.  Here goes.

One of the (many) quirks in the US methodology for measuring employment and unemployment is that two entirely different methods are used and reported.  One, called the ‘establishment survey,’ gives us the headline job gains or losses that are reported.  For January 2010, that number was -20,000, indicating that more people were out of work in January than December.

The other, the ‘household survey,’ delivers us the rate of unemployment, which fell from -10.0% to -9.7%, indicating that fewer people were out of work in January than December.

These are entirely separate surveys, and they are nearly impossible to directly compare.  Still, over time, they should at least be directionally aligned, and this departure between the two will resolve itself sooner or later.

I believe that the household number is overstating the gains, and here’s why.

Image | On The Other Hand…
On The Other Hand…
A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.
Link On The Other Hand…

Executive Summary

  • Recent economic news comes in three flavors: good, bad, and ugly.
  • GDP, retail sales, and manufacturing surveys point up.
  • Petroleum use has dropped to the same level it was at in the late 1990s, pointing down.
  • State sales tax receipts, unemployment, and the federal budget deficit are ugly.
  • The current expansionary track of monetary printing and deficit spending will continue until something external forces a contraction.

Today we are experiencing many confusing and conflicting signals in the economy.  Perhaps conflicting signals are normal at a major turning point, and therefore we might be tempted to believe that we are about to embark on another vigorous leg of economic expansion.

Here we’ll explore these conflicting signals and see what we can make of them.

On The Other Hand…
A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.
Link On The Other Hand…

Executive Summary

  • Recent economic news comes in three flavors: good, bad, and ugly.
  • GDP, retail sales, and manufacturing surveys point up.
  • Petroleum use has dropped to the same level it was at in the late 1990s, pointing down.
  • State sales tax receipts, unemployment, and the federal budget deficit are ugly.
  • The current expansionary track of monetary printing and deficit spending will continue until something external forces a contraction.

Today we are experiencing many confusing and conflicting signals in the economy.  Perhaps conflicting signals are normal at a major turning point, and therefore we might be tempted to believe that we are about to embark on another vigorous leg of economic expansion.

Here we’ll explore these conflicting signals and see what we can make of them.

Image | On The Other Hand…
On The Other Hand…
 PREVIEW
Friday, February 5, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Recent economic news comes in three flavors: good, bad, and ugly.
  • GDP, retail sales, and manufacturing surveys point up.
  • Petroleum use has dropped to the same level it was at in the late 1990s, pointing down.
  • State sales tax receipts, unemployment, and the federal budget deficit are ugly.
  • The current expansionary track of monetary printing and deficit spending will continue until something external forces a contraction.

Today we are experiencing many confusing and conflicting signals in the economy.  Perhaps conflicting signals are normal at a major turning point, and therefore we might be tempted to believe that we are about to embark on another vigorous leg of economic expansion.

Here we’ll explore these conflicting signals and see what we can make of them.

Before we do, I want you to recall that I am of the opinion that the trillions of dollars (and yen, and euros, and rubles, and yuan, and so forth) will someday come racing out of their big-bank holding pens and ignite something that will look and feel just like an economic rally.  For a little while.  Then, raging inflation and an energy crisis will ensue.  Given this outlook, I view any economic respite from the decline, no matter how falsely derived, to be a gift of time, allowing us the opportunity to continue to build the economic, physical, and emotional resilience in our lives and the lives of those around us.

You should be using this time to get ready for the next period of adjustment, which I expect to be both longer-lasting and more profound than the previous one.

However, in terms of parsing our existing situation so that we can maintain an appropriate outlook on where we are and where we are headed, there is much to be gained by keeping a close eye on current economic statistics.
On The Other Hand…
 PREVIEW
Friday, February 5, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Recent economic news comes in three flavors: good, bad, and ugly.
  • GDP, retail sales, and manufacturing surveys point up.
  • Petroleum use has dropped to the same level it was at in the late 1990s, pointing down.
  • State sales tax receipts, unemployment, and the federal budget deficit are ugly.
  • The current expansionary track of monetary printing and deficit spending will continue until something external forces a contraction.

Today we are experiencing many confusing and conflicting signals in the economy.  Perhaps conflicting signals are normal at a major turning point, and therefore we might be tempted to believe that we are about to embark on another vigorous leg of economic expansion.

Here we’ll explore these conflicting signals and see what we can make of them.

Before we do, I want you to recall that I am of the opinion that the trillions of dollars (and yen, and euros, and rubles, and yuan, and so forth) will someday come racing out of their big-bank holding pens and ignite something that will look and feel just like an economic rally.  For a little while.  Then, raging inflation and an energy crisis will ensue.  Given this outlook, I view any economic respite from the decline, no matter how falsely derived, to be a gift of time, allowing us the opportunity to continue to build the economic, physical, and emotional resilience in our lives and the lives of those around us.

You should be using this time to get ready for the next period of adjustment, which I expect to be both longer-lasting and more profound than the previous one.

However, in terms of parsing our existing situation so that we can maintain an appropriate outlook on where we are and where we are headed, there is much to be gained by keeping a close eye on current economic statistics.
Image | GDP: A Tsunami of Bad Information
GDP: A Tsunami of Bad Information
 PREVIEW

One of the things that I constantly harp on is that we need to change the stories that we tell ourselves.  GDP is one of those stories.

We tell ourselves a simple tale, and it goes like this:  A rising GDP is a good thing.

But with a slight bit of inquiry, we could discover the many ways that this story is more myth than fact.  First, we might discover that we routinely pad the tale with so many statistical distortions (“Fuzzy Numbers”) that the narrative not only loses its way, but becomes hopelessly misleading.
GDP: A Tsunami of Bad Information
 PREVIEW

One of the things that I constantly harp on is that we need to change the stories that we tell ourselves.  GDP is one of those stories.

We tell ourselves a simple tale, and it goes like this:  A rising GDP is a good thing.

But with a slight bit of inquiry, we could discover the many ways that this story is more myth than fact.  First, we might discover that we routinely pad the tale with so many statistical distortions (“Fuzzy Numbers”) that the narrative not only loses its way, but becomes hopelessly misleading.
Image | Reflections on Commonwealth
Reflections on Commonwealth
 PREVIEW

Here is a link to the streaming audio file of the Commonwealth Talk.  It’s also available for free by subscribing to their iTunes stream here.  A special thanks to Commonwealth Club, Climate One, and their excellent production team for hosting me and creating this podcast.  I encourage you to check out the Climate One blog and their Facebook page to view a brief video clip of the talk.

I want to share a few inside observations and experiences from the talk yesterday.

First, the Commonwealth Club was completely caught off guard by the response to my talk.  Their phone rang off the hook, they told me that some long-time members who couldn’t get in were very disappointed, and they even explored moving the other speaker to an off-site venue to free up their main room for me.

They couldn’t quite get that arranged, and so it didn’t happen, but the idea that I almost bumped Eliot Spitzer is both amusing and humbling.

Even knowing it was sold out, roughly 30 people showed up and waited to see if any stand-by slots opened up.  I went into their holding room, introduced myself, and spent some time there right before the talk, because I really wanted to meet everyone and it seemed such a shame to not be able to speak to everyone who wanted to hear me.

Reflections on Commonwealth
 PREVIEW

Here is a link to the streaming audio file of the Commonwealth Talk.  It’s also available for free by subscribing to their iTunes stream here.  A special thanks to Commonwealth Club, Climate One, and their excellent production team for hosting me and creating this podcast.  I encourage you to check out the Climate One blog and their Facebook page to view a brief video clip of the talk.

I want to share a few inside observations and experiences from the talk yesterday.

First, the Commonwealth Club was completely caught off guard by the response to my talk.  Their phone rang off the hook, they told me that some long-time members who couldn’t get in were very disappointed, and they even explored moving the other speaker to an off-site venue to free up their main room for me.

They couldn’t quite get that arranged, and so it didn’t happen, but the idea that I almost bumped Eliot Spitzer is both amusing and humbling.

Even knowing it was sold out, roughly 30 people showed up and waited to see if any stand-by slots opened up.  I went into their holding room, introduced myself, and spent some time there right before the talk, because I really wanted to meet everyone and it seemed such a shame to not be able to speak to everyone who wanted to hear me.

Image | Big Ideas at the Commonwealth Club (Transcript)
Big Ideas at the Commonwealth Club (Transcript)

Last night (Tuesday, January 26th, 2010) I gave a talk to a sold-out audience at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. The crowd was excellent, and I was thrilled to have the chance to deliver our message at this venue.

I say ‘our message’ because so many of you helped to shape the talk, and, most importantly, practically forbade me from doing anything but delivering a no-holds-barred message.  So that’s what I did.

Here are a couple of observations.  Five years ago I was delivering a version of this message in the basement community room in a local bank in Brattleboro, VT to very small audiences.  Yesterday, a half hour before the talk began, there were ~30 people waiting in a side room for a small chance at one standby ticket.

Five years ago, the audiences were all ‘of an age.’  Now they include many more younger people and represent a much broader cross section of society, beliefs, professions, and income levels.

My impression is that the tide is shifting, powerfully, and yesterday’s response proved to me that ideas matter, that people care, and that getting our collective act together is a rapidly-ascending priority for a growing group of people.  Whoever says that there’s no interest anymore in big ideas is flat-out wrong. 

So thank you to everyone that came, and, if you couldn’t make it in, I’m sorry, and I hope that we get a chance to meet soon elsewhere.  If you can make it to the Sonora event, tomorrow night (Thursday, 6-9:30), I’d love to see you there.

Below is the speech I gave (not an exact transcript, but very close).
Big Ideas at the Commonwealth Club (Transcript)

Last night (Tuesday, January 26th, 2010) I gave a talk to a sold-out audience at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. The crowd was excellent, and I was thrilled to have the chance to deliver our message at this venue.

I say ‘our message’ because so many of you helped to shape the talk, and, most importantly, practically forbade me from doing anything but delivering a no-holds-barred message.  So that’s what I did.

Here are a couple of observations.  Five years ago I was delivering a version of this message in the basement community room in a local bank in Brattleboro, VT to very small audiences.  Yesterday, a half hour before the talk began, there were ~30 people waiting in a side room for a small chance at one standby ticket.

Five years ago, the audiences were all ‘of an age.’  Now they include many more younger people and represent a much broader cross section of society, beliefs, professions, and income levels.

My impression is that the tide is shifting, powerfully, and yesterday’s response proved to me that ideas matter, that people care, and that getting our collective act together is a rapidly-ascending priority for a growing group of people.  Whoever says that there’s no interest anymore in big ideas is flat-out wrong. 

So thank you to everyone that came, and, if you couldn’t make it in, I’m sorry, and I hope that we get a chance to meet soon elsewhere.  If you can make it to the Sonora event, tomorrow night (Thursday, 6-9:30), I’d love to see you there.

Below is the speech I gave (not an exact transcript, but very close).
Image | A Step in the Right Direction
A Step in the Right Direction
 PREVIEW

The Obama administration, responding, we assume, to the putative message sent by the Massachusetts election result, has proposed that federal budgets be completely frozen for three years, and then only grow at the rate of inflation thereafter.

This is a step in the right direction.
A Step in the Right Direction
 PREVIEW

The Obama administration, responding, we assume, to the putative message sent by the Massachusetts election result, has proposed that federal budgets be completely frozen for three years, and then only grow at the rate of inflation thereafter.

This is a step in the right direction.
Image | Commonwealth Club Talk v.278
Commonwealth Club Talk v.278
 PREVIEW

All:

Here is the talk I plan to give…  After I received the strongest possible message from you that I should not hold back the message in any way, what you see below is the result.  At the same time, I wanted to keep the messaging on the positive/hopeful side, even if the core ideas are not.  It’s a fine line, so I am interested in your perspectives on that balance.

I am still wide open to revisions, and it will change between here and then. 
Commonwealth Club Talk v.278
 PREVIEW

All:

Here is the talk I plan to give…  After I received the strongest possible message from you that I should not hold back the message in any way, what you see below is the result.  At the same time, I wanted to keep the messaging on the positive/hopeful side, even if the core ideas are not.  It’s a fine line, so I am interested in your perspectives on that balance.

I am still wide open to revisions, and it will change between here and then. 
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