Well, the Fed held its meeting and dutifully released a very measured statement, as expected by those who are familiar with the way the Fed adopts a ‘steady as she goes’ policy this close to an election.
Truthfully, I don’t see anything exceptional in the Fed statement, but the markets responded quite strongly to the release.
They started with the usual ‘not so hot, but not too terrible’ outlook that has dominated their views for quite some time:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months.
The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term.
(Source)
There is nothing unusual there, except perhaps a less-bullish-than-hoped-for-by-some admission that the economy is not roaring out of the gates even at the tail end of several trillions of dollars of stimulus. Still, it’s not a serious departure from past statements and is only notable for not having changed very much. Also, who sits around waiting for the Fed to pronounce this? The data is widely available and routinely dissected by leading economists and analysts.
Where the Fed seems a bit out to lunch is in this statement:
With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate.