Chris Martenson
Preparing for a Future Defined by Peak Oil
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Executive Summary
- How the math shows that the Bakken will not make us “energy independent”
- Why the harsh constraints of Peak Oil are a near certainty for the US and its economic growth
- What a world impacted by Peak Oil will likely be like
- Why 2013 looks like the year Peak Oil will become globally acknowledged
- What you should be doing (with your investments and lifestyle) in advance of the full force of Peak Oil’s arrival
Part I: Dangerous Ideas
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Preparing for a Future Defined by Peak Oil
In Part I of this report , we discussed the odd push by some media outlets and Citibank to declare Peak Oil ‘over’ based on the exciting results coming from the Bakken shale oil play. While I, too, think the shale oil plays are exciting, and they certainly will help to mitigate the impact of Peak Oil to some extent, the idea that we can now relegate Peak Oil to the dustbin is a dangerous idea.
Since I have been asked by many of you to analyze the Bakken results, I will do so here with enough context and data to estimate its impact on future oil prices. Then we’ll cover the implications of all this on our responses and actions.
Preparing for a Future Defined by Peak Oil
PREVIEWPreparing for a Future Defined by Peak Oil
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Executive Summary
- How the math shows that the Bakken will not make us “energy independent”
- Why the harsh constraints of Peak Oil are a near certainty for the US and its economic growth
- What a world impacted by Peak Oil will likely be like
- Why 2013 looks like the year Peak Oil will become globally acknowledged
- What you should be doing (with your investments and lifestyle) in advance of the full force of Peak Oil’s arrival
Part I: Dangerous Ideas
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Preparing for a Future Defined by Peak Oil
In Part I of this report , we discussed the odd push by some media outlets and Citibank to declare Peak Oil ‘over’ based on the exciting results coming from the Bakken shale oil play. While I, too, think the shale oil plays are exciting, and they certainly will help to mitigate the impact of Peak Oil to some extent, the idea that we can now relegate Peak Oil to the dustbin is a dangerous idea.
Since I have been asked by many of you to analyze the Bakken results, I will do so here with enough context and data to estimate its impact on future oil prices. Then we’ll cover the implications of all this on our responses and actions.
One of our core operating principles around here is that when pressed by circumstances, the authorities will simply change the rules. And by “circumstances” we mean anything that could destroy the markets, or perhaps be just politically convenient, or anything in between.
Examples include the NYSE unilaterally and without precedent breaking trades following the flash crash of 2010, the mysterious inability to enforce the rules in the case of the “missing” MF Global client funds, and the avoidance of any and all criminal action against banks and mortgage companies caught red-handed in falsifying documents.
To this list, we need to add the recent actions of the European Central Bank (ECB):
The Rules Continue to Be Changed
PREVIEWOne of our core operating principles around here is that when pressed by circumstances, the authorities will simply change the rules. And by “circumstances” we mean anything that could destroy the markets, or perhaps be just politically convenient, or anything in between.
Examples include the NYSE unilaterally and without precedent breaking trades following the flash crash of 2010, the mysterious inability to enforce the rules in the case of the “missing” MF Global client funds, and the avoidance of any and all criminal action against banks and mortgage companies caught red-handed in falsifying documents.
To this list, we need to add the recent actions of the European Central Bank (ECB):
History is replete with the carcasses of failed currencies destroyed through misguided intentional debasement by governments looking for an easy escape from piling up too much debt. James Rickards, author of the recent bestseller Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, sees history repeating itself today – and warns that we are in the escalating stage of a global currency war of the grandest scale.
Whether it ends in hyperinflation, in the return to some form of gold standard, or in chaos, history is telling us we can have confidence that it will end painfully.
James Rickards: Paper, Gold, or Chaos?
History is replete with the carcasses of failed currencies destroyed through misguided intentional debasement by governments looking for an easy escape from piling up too much debt. James Rickards, author of the recent bestseller Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, sees history repeating itself today – and warns that we are in the escalating stage of a global currency war of the grandest scale.
Whether it ends in hyperinflation, in the return to some form of gold standard, or in chaos, history is telling us we can have confidence that it will end painfully.
Greece
It's the big man's turn in the hot seat today.
A few weeks ago, we asked you, the CM.com community, what questions you would most like to hear Chris address in an interview. You weren't shy!
I sat down with a stack of your questions – ranging from precious metals investing to global warming to what Chris does to blow off steam – and grilled Dr. M as best I could.
Chris Answers Your Questions (Part 1)
It's the big man's turn in the hot seat today.
A few weeks ago, we asked you, the CM.com community, what questions you would most like to hear Chris address in an interview. You weren't shy!
I sat down with a stack of your questions – ranging from precious metals investing to global warming to what Chris does to blow off steam – and grilled Dr. M as best I could.
Fuzzy Math
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