Chris Martenson
Note: This is the final article in our series on personal preparation to help you answer the question, “What should I do?” Our goal is to provide a safe, rational, relatively comfortable experience for those who are just coming to the realization that it would be prudent to take precautionary steps against an uncertain future. Those who have already taken these basic steps (and more) are invited to help us improve what is offered here by contributing comments, as this content is meant to be dynamic and improve over time.
Those who’ve read this full series know that six years ago my family lived in a big house by the sea, where we were completely dependent on outside systems to deliver to us our daily food, water, warmth, and electricity. Perhaps even more worryingly, we engaged with a relatively limited community, defined by the people with whom we worked or knew through our children’s lives and activities.
Today, in addition to running this website and working towards creating a tipping point of awareness around the three Es, we have a garden, chickens, food preservation skills, solar hot water and electricity, local food connections, and a steadily deepening network of relationships around each of these elements. We did not do this all at once, but over a period of years.
What Should I Do? The Basics of Resilience (Part 9 – Your Next Steps)
Note: This is the final article in our series on personal preparation to help you answer the question, “What should I do?” Our goal is to provide a safe, rational, relatively comfortable experience for those who are just coming to the realization that it would be prudent to take precautionary steps against an uncertain future. Those who have already taken these basic steps (and more) are invited to help us improve what is offered here by contributing comments, as this content is meant to be dynamic and improve over time.
Those who’ve read this full series know that six years ago my family lived in a big house by the sea, where we were completely dependent on outside systems to deliver to us our daily food, water, warmth, and electricity. Perhaps even more worryingly, we engaged with a relatively limited community, defined by the people with whom we worked or knew through our children’s lives and activities.
Today, in addition to running this website and working towards creating a tipping point of awareness around the three Es, we have a garden, chickens, food preservation skills, solar hot water and electricity, local food connections, and a steadily deepening network of relationships around each of these elements. We did not do this all at once, but over a period of years.
The most anticipated announcement of the year – perhaps too anticipated (sell the news?) – will answer the question, “How much new money will the Fed decide dump into the situation at their next meeting?”
Estimates range from a low of $500 billion to as high as $4 trillion. In the middle of the range is Bill Gross of PIMCO, who thinks the Fed needs to buy around $100 billion a month of US Treasuries (effectively monetizing the entire US deficit next year), while the high end is claimed by Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, who makes the case that the Fed’s own “Taylor Rule” requires them to buy $4 trillion if they wish to close the apparent gap that exists between that rule and economic reality.
What began as a temporary rescue operation by the Fed and the feds to try and perform a normal Keynesian jump-start operation on the economy is now a permanent fixture without which the markets cannot operate.
More Liquidity on the Way
PREVIEWThe most anticipated announcement of the year – perhaps too anticipated (sell the news?) – will answer the question, “How much new money will the Fed decide dump into the situation at their next meeting?”
Estimates range from a low of $500 billion to as high as $4 trillion. In the middle of the range is Bill Gross of PIMCO, who thinks the Fed needs to buy around $100 billion a month of US Treasuries (effectively monetizing the entire US deficit next year), while the high end is claimed by Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, who makes the case that the Fed’s own “Taylor Rule” requires them to buy $4 trillion if they wish to close the apparent gap that exists between that rule and economic reality.
What began as a temporary rescue operation by the Fed and the feds to try and perform a normal Keynesian jump-start operation on the economy is now a permanent fixture without which the markets cannot operate.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Executive Summary
- Perception will drive the market shift.
- Awareness of Peak Oil is still low but spreading rapidly.
- The military is mobilizing, but civilian government is AWOL.
- The Post-Peak transition will be more chaotic than it need be.
- We have time to prepare (but not much).
- Taking informed action now is critical.
Part I
If you have not yet read Part I of this report, please click here to read it first.
Part II
It’s All About Perception
On my plane ride back from DC, I happened to sit next to an insurance professional who was chatty. After hearing about his washed-out business trip to the Cayman Islands, I told him about my work and the ASPO conference I’d just been to. He’d never heard of Peak Oil before.
When I encounter someone who has not heard of Peak Oil, I experience the same sense of disorientation as if they said they had never heard of 9-11. The only difference between the two is that Peak Oil might have much larger and even more devastating effects.
The good news is that this reminds me that we are further away from the tipping point of awareness than I sometimes think, (hopefully) providing us with an extra year or two or preparation time. The bad news is that when the tipping point arrives, it will do so all at once, and probably with more disruption than if people had been allowed to more slowly internalize the implications and reality of vastly higher oil prices.
As we explored in the previous report, it’s not the fundamentals that will finally lead to the shift, it’s perception. Right now, on a fundamental basis, there is every indication that a liquid fuel crisis is imminent. Perhaps the data is wrong and will be corrected, or perhaps a massive discovery will change the game, but right now our best information is that depletion and demand are going to swamp supply in the near future.
Future Chaos: There Is No “Plan B”
PREVIEWWednesday, October 13, 2010
Executive Summary
- Perception will drive the market shift.
- Awareness of Peak Oil is still low but spreading rapidly.
- The military is mobilizing, but civilian government is AWOL.
- The Post-Peak transition will be more chaotic than it need be.
- We have time to prepare (but not much).
- Taking informed action now is critical.
Part I
If you have not yet read Part I of this report, please click here to read it first.
Part II
It’s All About Perception
On my plane ride back from DC, I happened to sit next to an insurance professional who was chatty. After hearing about his washed-out business trip to the Cayman Islands, I told him about my work and the ASPO conference I’d just been to. He’d never heard of Peak Oil before.
When I encounter someone who has not heard of Peak Oil, I experience the same sense of disorientation as if they said they had never heard of 9-11. The only difference between the two is that Peak Oil might have much larger and even more devastating effects.
The good news is that this reminds me that we are further away from the tipping point of awareness than I sometimes think, (hopefully) providing us with an extra year or two or preparation time. The bad news is that when the tipping point arrives, it will do so all at once, and probably with more disruption than if people had been allowed to more slowly internalize the implications and reality of vastly higher oil prices.
As we explored in the previous report, it’s not the fundamentals that will finally lead to the shift, it’s perception. Right now, on a fundamental basis, there is every indication that a liquid fuel crisis is imminent. Perhaps the data is wrong and will be corrected, or perhaps a massive discovery will change the game, but right now our best information is that depletion and demand are going to swamp supply in the near future.
This post is a contribution to Honda’s “Racing Against Time” thought leadership series. Chris Martenson was selected to provide a unique perspective on how we should approach the discussion of oil as a finite energy source. During the first week of October 2010, five individuals provide their own thoughts on the subject. These independent contributors were not compensated for their participation and as such their views are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Honda. Details and links to what others are saying about “Racing Against Time” can be found at www.facebook.com/Honda.
Peak Oil will result in ‘peak economy.’ Once it arrives, nothing will work quite the same way again.
Let me explain.
The concept of “Peak Oil” is simple enough: Oil is a finite resource. Someday, no matter how hard we try, we will hit a maximum rate of production. From that time on, we will see less and less oil coming up out of the ground. What Peak Oil refers to, then, is not “running out” of oil, but the fact that we are going to hit peak production sooner or later. All of the data suggests that “sooner” is a better candidate than “later.”
By itself, the concept of having to get by on just a little bit less oil each year seems to be manageable enough. Perhaps we can develop more hybrid/electric cars, wind/solar farms, and other technologies that can help us use energy more efficiently. I will applaud these technologies as they become more widely available, but basic math indicates that they cannot possibly bridge the energy gap being left by retreating oil supplies fast enough. So then what?
My particular concern, and the focus of my writing and speaking, is the role of energy in creating and supporting the economy upon which we all depend. The short version of the story is this: Our economy utterly depends on oil to function. And for the first time ever, oil production is declining. We are now racing against time.
Racing Against Time: Peak Oil = Peak Economy
This post is a contribution to Honda’s “Racing Against Time” thought leadership series. Chris Martenson was selected to provide a unique perspective on how we should approach the discussion of oil as a finite energy source. During the first week of October 2010, five individuals provide their own thoughts on the subject. These independent contributors were not compensated for their participation and as such their views are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Honda. Details and links to what others are saying about “Racing Against Time” can be found at www.facebook.com/Honda.
Peak Oil will result in ‘peak economy.’ Once it arrives, nothing will work quite the same way again.
Let me explain.
The concept of “Peak Oil” is simple enough: Oil is a finite resource. Someday, no matter how hard we try, we will hit a maximum rate of production. From that time on, we will see less and less oil coming up out of the ground. What Peak Oil refers to, then, is not “running out” of oil, but the fact that we are going to hit peak production sooner or later. All of the data suggests that “sooner” is a better candidate than “later.”
By itself, the concept of having to get by on just a little bit less oil each year seems to be manageable enough. Perhaps we can develop more hybrid/electric cars, wind/solar farms, and other technologies that can help us use energy more efficiently. I will applaud these technologies as they become more widely available, but basic math indicates that they cannot possibly bridge the energy gap being left by retreating oil supplies fast enough. So then what?
My particular concern, and the focus of my writing and speaking, is the role of energy in creating and supporting the economy upon which we all depend. The short version of the story is this: Our economy utterly depends on oil to function. And for the first time ever, oil production is declining. We are now racing against time.
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