Peak Insiders
Executive Summary
- The importance of understanding the difference between depleting vs declining
- Why the shale "miracle" can't rescue us from this predicament
- Why 2019 will be a seminal year
- How high will oil prices go when the shock arrives?
- Why the next oil shock will force the economy — and EVERYTHING we depend on — to diminish
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Looming Energy Shock available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
There are two words that are related but important to understand the distinction between. One is depletion, which refers to the amount of oil that is removed from a reservoir. The other is decline, which refers to the amount of oil flowing from a given well or field.
Depletion is a relatively straightforward process. If there are 100 units of removable oil in a field and you pump out 3 of them, the field has depleted by 3%.
But you might be able to hold the rate of pumping constant for a long time by injecting water or performing other stunts to force more oil out of a given well. If in our example we kept removing those same 3 units year after year, our decline rate would be zero. But the depletion rate would be increasing, because 3/100 = 3% but 3/97 = 3.1%. And after ten years the rate would be 3/70 = 4.3%.
That is, all efforts to keep oil flowing out of the wells at a maximum rate results in increasing rates of depletion. But we should also point out here that fighting decline rates is an expensive proposition. And that funding, too, has dried up of late.
The bottom line is that depletion is what really matters. Because once the oil gone, baby, it’s gone. All of the MSM headlines will keep you focused firmly on rates of extraction but only rarely on the rates of depletion.
So where is the world in the story of depletion? This is where our various sphincters should be involuntarily tightening. Rates of depletion are increasing, and they are substantial as seen here in…
Preparing For The Coming Shock
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- The importance of understanding the difference between depleting vs declining
- Why the shale "miracle" can't rescue us from this predicament
- Why 2019 will be a seminal year
- How high will oil prices go when the shock arrives?
- Why the next oil shock will force the economy — and EVERYTHING we depend on — to diminish
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Looming Energy Shock available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
There are two words that are related but important to understand the distinction between. One is depletion, which refers to the amount of oil that is removed from a reservoir. The other is decline, which refers to the amount of oil flowing from a given well or field.
Depletion is a relatively straightforward process. If there are 100 units of removable oil in a field and you pump out 3 of them, the field has depleted by 3%.
But you might be able to hold the rate of pumping constant for a long time by injecting water or performing other stunts to force more oil out of a given well. If in our example we kept removing those same 3 units year after year, our decline rate would be zero. But the depletion rate would be increasing, because 3/100 = 3% but 3/97 = 3.1%. And after ten years the rate would be 3/70 = 4.3%.
That is, all efforts to keep oil flowing out of the wells at a maximum rate results in increasing rates of depletion. But we should also point out here that fighting decline rates is an expensive proposition. And that funding, too, has dried up of late.
The bottom line is that depletion is what really matters. Because once the oil gone, baby, it’s gone. All of the MSM headlines will keep you focused firmly on rates of extraction but only rarely on the rates of depletion.
So where is the world in the story of depletion? This is where our various sphincters should be involuntarily tightening. Rates of depletion are increasing, and they are substantial as seen here in…
Executive Summary
- The critical value of scarcity
- Understanding the utility of the blockchain
- Will (can?) governments ban cryptocurrencies?
- A coming geometric explosion in the price of cryptocurrency?
If you have not yet read Part 1: Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part 1, we surveyed the exciting but confusing speculative boom phase of cryptocurrencies. Here in Part 2, we will contextualize this mad swirl by running it through two filters: scarcity and utility.
What’s Scarce? Scarcity Creates Value
Regardless of one’s economic ideology or system, scarcity creates value and abundance destroys value. When we say supply and demand, we’re really talking about scarcity and abundance and the rise or fall of demand for the commodity, good or service.
In classical economic theory, scarcity is met with substitution: ground beef too expensive due to relative scarcity? Buy ground turkey instead.
But this model has weaknesses. There aren’t always substitutes, or the substitutes are more expensive or problematic than what is now scarce.
As a general rule, profits flow to any scarcity of goods and services with high utility value. We value what’s scarce and useful, and place little value on what’s abundant and of limited utility.
Currency has three basic functions: a store of value (it will retain its purchasing power over time), means of exchange (we can use it to trade goods and services, pay debts, etc.) and as an accounting mechanism to track assets, debts, income, expenses and exchanges/trades.
We assume all currency has this function, but only currency that is easily divisible and easily tradable enables easy accounting. If a notched stick is a unit of currency, and one stick buys a pig, what do I use for purchases smaller than a pig?
In today’s world, a currency must be….
The Value Drivers Of Cryptocurrency
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- The critical value of scarcity
- Understanding the utility of the blockchain
- Will (can?) governments ban cryptocurrencies?
- A coming geometric explosion in the price of cryptocurrency?
If you have not yet read Part 1: Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part 1, we surveyed the exciting but confusing speculative boom phase of cryptocurrencies. Here in Part 2, we will contextualize this mad swirl by running it through two filters: scarcity and utility.
What’s Scarce? Scarcity Creates Value
Regardless of one’s economic ideology or system, scarcity creates value and abundance destroys value. When we say supply and demand, we’re really talking about scarcity and abundance and the rise or fall of demand for the commodity, good or service.
In classical economic theory, scarcity is met with substitution: ground beef too expensive due to relative scarcity? Buy ground turkey instead.
But this model has weaknesses. There aren’t always substitutes, or the substitutes are more expensive or problematic than what is now scarce.
As a general rule, profits flow to any scarcity of goods and services with high utility value. We value what’s scarce and useful, and place little value on what’s abundant and of limited utility.
Currency has three basic functions: a store of value (it will retain its purchasing power over time), means of exchange (we can use it to trade goods and services, pay debts, etc.) and as an accounting mechanism to track assets, debts, income, expenses and exchanges/trades.
We assume all currency has this function, but only currency that is easily divisible and easily tradable enables easy accounting. If a notched stick is a unit of currency, and one stick buys a pig, what do I use for purchases smaller than a pig?
In today’s world, a currency must be….
Executive Summary
- The case of the missing credit impulse
- The credit impulse is the worst its been in recent history
- How the situation is deteriorating fast
- Why a credit impulse-driven recession is nigh
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The Case Of The Missing Credit Impulse
An enormous oversight of nearly every major economist is the role of debt in both fostering current growth but also stealing from future growth.
It seems like such a simple concept, and it’s one I covered in great detail back in 2008 in the original Crash Course, but it remains a mysterious oversight of most here in 2017. The concept is easy enough; if I borrow money to increase my spending here today, it probably makes sense to take note of that if you're an economist responsible for tracking spending.
My debt-funded spending today is my lack of spending in the future when I pay down the debt.
Professor Steve Keen has this topic nailed beautifully. In it, he explains how even simply keeping a massive pile of previously accumulated debt at the same level as last year is a net negative on economic growth. A very simple and a very profound concept that still is not a part of conventional thinking.
Now here where things get interesting. And frightening. If we look at…
Everything You Need To Know About The Credit Impulse
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- The case of the missing credit impulse
- The credit impulse is the worst its been in recent history
- How the situation is deteriorating fast
- Why a credit impulse-driven recession is nigh
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The Case Of The Missing Credit Impulse
An enormous oversight of nearly every major economist is the role of debt in both fostering current growth but also stealing from future growth.
It seems like such a simple concept, and it’s one I covered in great detail back in 2008 in the original Crash Course, but it remains a mysterious oversight of most here in 2017. The concept is easy enough; if I borrow money to increase my spending here today, it probably makes sense to take note of that if you're an economist responsible for tracking spending.
My debt-funded spending today is my lack of spending in the future when I pay down the debt.
Professor Steve Keen has this topic nailed beautifully. In it, he explains how even simply keeping a massive pile of previously accumulated debt at the same level as last year is a net negative on economic growth. A very simple and a very profound concept that still is not a part of conventional thinking.
Now here where things get interesting. And frightening. If we look at…
Executive Summary
- The economic data is getting darker fast
- The over-indebtedness of the economy is the worst it's ever been
- Predicting the timing of the next major market correction
- As the risks mount, what should the concerned investor do?
If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The Data Says…Another Downturn Is Upon Us
Our view is that a massive market correction is coming, one that may well rip the financial markets apart, and cause very long-term and long lasting damage, possibly to the point of taking generations to repair in any meaningful sense.
In fact things may never actually recover to the current heights because recovery requires energy and there simply isn’t the net energy per capita that existed in the past.
For now, we see plenty of signs of fundamental economic weakness, and this is not surprising at this stage of the so-called economic expansion. The truth is this expansion has been phony to a large degree, and quite probably should have broken down many times in the past, most recently in early 2016.
But the central banks prevented that and we can all feel thankful at the extra time that has provided us to become more resilient under reasonably calm circumstances.
And yet, the one thing that central banks have never been able to do is…
Get Ready For The Coming Massive Correction
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- The economic data is getting darker fast
- The over-indebtedness of the economy is the worst it's ever been
- Predicting the timing of the next major market correction
- As the risks mount, what should the concerned investor do?
If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The Data Says…Another Downturn Is Upon Us
Our view is that a massive market correction is coming, one that may well rip the financial markets apart, and cause very long-term and long lasting damage, possibly to the point of taking generations to repair in any meaningful sense.
In fact things may never actually recover to the current heights because recovery requires energy and there simply isn’t the net energy per capita that existed in the past.
For now, we see plenty of signs of fundamental economic weakness, and this is not surprising at this stage of the so-called economic expansion. The truth is this expansion has been phony to a large degree, and quite probably should have broken down many times in the past, most recently in early 2016.
But the central banks prevented that and we can all feel thankful at the extra time that has provided us to become more resilient under reasonably calm circumstances.
And yet, the one thing that central banks have never been able to do is…
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