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Image | Fed Meeting This Week
Fed Meeting This Week
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

We have a Fed meeting Wednesday; this week, there was no material change in rate increase projection from the futures markets: a roughly 81% chance of a 75 basis point rate increase, with more rate increases projected to come after that. (Source) The European Central Bank actually did raise rates 50 bp this week, for…
Fed Meeting This Week
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

We have a Fed meeting Wednesday; this week, there was no material change in rate increase projection from the futures markets: a roughly 81% chance of a 75 basis point rate increase, with more rate increases projected to come after that. (Source) The European Central Bank actually did raise rates 50 bp this week, for…
Image | Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills
Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

I’ll lead again with my new focus: rate increases.  Where are we? Last week: July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase This week: July 27: 71%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2: 44%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase Source Not much change.  The prospects for a rate increase are similar to last week,…
Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

I’ll lead again with my new focus: rate increases.  Where are we? Last week: July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase This week: July 27: 71%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2: 44%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase Source Not much change.  The prospects for a rate increase are similar to last week,…
Image | Fed Rate Increase Still on Track; Fighting to The Last Ukrainian
Fed Rate Increase Still on Track; Fighting to The Last Ukrainian
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

My focus this week: what are market expectations are for Fed rate increases, and prospects for a recession? Futures markets predictions for Fed rate increases located here. Last week: • July 27, 71%: 2.25% – 2.50% +0.75% vs. now • Nov 2, 61%: 3.00% – 3.25% +1.5% vs. now This week: • July 27, 92%:…
Fed Rate Increase Still on Track; Fighting to The Last Ukrainian
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

My focus this week: what are market expectations are for Fed rate increases, and prospects for a recession? Futures markets predictions for Fed rate increases located here. Last week: • July 27, 71%: 2.25% – 2.50% +0.75% vs. now • Nov 2, 61%: 3.00% – 3.25% +1.5% vs. now This week: • July 27, 92%:…
Image | Credit Contraction; Recession Indicators Grow
Credit Contraction; Recession Indicators Grow
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

First, I have some bad news. My data provider decided to stop shipping futures data to me (it was a free service which I’ve used for over five years) – the last updated value was Thursday at end of day. So, my charts for all futures contracts in this report end on Thursday. Now, I…
Credit Contraction; Recession Indicators Grow
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

First, I have some bad news. My data provider decided to stop shipping futures data to me (it was a free service which I’ve used for over five years) – the last updated value was Thursday at end of day. So, my charts for all futures contracts in this report end on Thursday. Now, I…
Image | Dead Cat Bounce; A New Reserve Currency
Dead Cat Bounce; A New Reserve Currency
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The markets were mixed for most of the week. However on Friday, there was a bit of a surprise rally in equities. Financial Entertainment News thought the pop on Friday was due to this: The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said consumers expect inflation to rise at a 5.3% annualized rate as of the…
Dead Cat Bounce; A New Reserve Currency
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The markets were mixed for most of the week. However on Friday, there was a bit of a surprise rally in equities. Financial Entertainment News thought the pop on Friday was due to this: The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said consumers expect inflation to rise at a 5.3% annualized rate as of the…
Image | Fed Raises Rates 75 Basis Points; Europeans Back Immediate Peace
Fed Raises Rates 75 Basis Points; Europeans Back Immediate Peace
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The big news of the week: on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a rate increase of +0.75% (75 bp) to 1.75%.  This was hinted at on Monday, and as per the Fed press conference at 14:30 Eastern on Wednesday, the rate increase was blamed on last week’s surprisingly hot CPI print (0.97%…
Fed Raises Rates 75 Basis Points; Europeans Back Immediate Peace
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The big news of the week: on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a rate increase of +0.75% (75 bp) to 1.75%.  This was hinted at on Monday, and as per the Fed press conference at 14:30 Eastern on Wednesday, the rate increase was blamed on last week’s surprisingly hot CPI print (0.97%…
Image | Hot CPI print; Unconditional Surrender
Hot CPI print; Unconditional Surrender
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The big news: on Friday at 8:30 am EST, CPI came in hot: +1.0% m/m, or an incredible +12% if you annualize the number versus last month’s +0.3% m/m. This really moved the markets, some charged higher, others plunged. For the most part, it was a risk-off move. The buck had a huge rally –…
Hot CPI print; Unconditional Surrender
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The big news: on Friday at 8:30 am EST, CPI came in hot: +1.0% m/m, or an incredible +12% if you annualize the number versus last month’s +0.3% m/m. This really moved the markets, some charged higher, others plunged. For the most part, it was a risk-off move. The buck had a huge rally –…
Image | Oil in Storage Drops Again; Rising Disability as a Signal
Oil in Storage Drops Again; Rising Disability as a Signal
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Oil hit a new multi-decade (since 2008) weekly closing high this week, up +4.64 to 118.85. There was talk about OPEC+ pumping more oil to make up for Russia sanctions (now that Russia’s oil is now headed off to China and India), but I guess it wasn’t enough. Prices moved steadily higher. Interestingly, the open…
Oil in Storage Drops Again; Rising Disability as a Signal
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Oil hit a new multi-decade (since 2008) weekly closing high this week, up +4.64 to 118.85. There was talk about OPEC+ pumping more oil to make up for Russia sanctions (now that Russia’s oil is now headed off to China and India), but I guess it wasn’t enough. Prices moved steadily higher. Interestingly, the open…
Image | Technocrat Kissinger Suggests Peace; Ed Dowd’s Church Picnic
Technocrat Kissinger Suggests Peace; Ed Dowd’s Church Picnic
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

So, the reasonably big market move this week: SPX reversed its 7-week decline, and printed a strong-looking bullish reversal candle, but it was not enough to pull the skeptical forecaster back into an uptrend. The SPX move (+6.58%) came mostly on Thursday and Friday, alongside a bullish sector map (discretionary, energy, financials, and tech led)….
Technocrat Kissinger Suggests Peace; Ed Dowd’s Church Picnic
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

So, the reasonably big market move this week: SPX reversed its 7-week decline, and printed a strong-looking bullish reversal candle, but it was not enough to pull the skeptical forecaster back into an uptrend. The SPX move (+6.58%) came mostly on Thursday and Friday, alongside a bullish sector map (discretionary, energy, financials, and tech led)….
Image | Peak Insider Live, April 21, Replay Now Available
Peak Insider Live, April 21, Replay Now Available
 PREVIEW
by Ivor

Special Format Change! Because of the LiveCast popularity, tonight Peak Insiders and VIPs got a 2-for-1 deal: LiveCast, you can watch it here. Peak Insider Live…replay is below. Peak Insiders have submitted a lot of questions! There was no shortage of major, civilization-altering topics to discuss directly with Chris. This was a rousing conversation.  …
Peak Insider Live, April 21, Replay Now Available
 PREVIEW by Ivor

Special Format Change! Because of the LiveCast popularity, tonight Peak Insiders and VIPs got a 2-for-1 deal: LiveCast, you can watch it here. Peak Insider Live…replay is below. Peak Insiders have submitted a lot of questions! There was no shortage of major, civilization-altering topics to discuss directly with Chris. This was a rousing conversation.  …
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Once again I am so grateful and appreciative to Chris (@cmartenson) for sorting through this horrendous Covid deception early on.
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