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Image | Protecting Yourself Against Crime and Violence
Protecting Yourself Against Crime and Violence
by thc0655
Note: This post deals with personal security, one of the most asked-for topics by this community. However, we realize it is a sensitive if not scary topic for some. The intent here is have an open and mature exploration of an important subject. Please respect the author's efforts to do just that.
 
My wife and I live in Philadelphia on the “green line” between mostly-prosperous Center City and mostly-wasteland North Philadelphia. People are very aware of crime around here, as you might imagine, and many people have taken numerous steps to avoid becoming victims. That being said, I am still surprised on a nearly daily basis how unprepared and unaware some people are. (I’m a Police Sergeant, so I see many people who have been caught off guard by criminals. And that’s a very important first tip: If the criminal cannot catch you off guard and unprepared, he’s most likely going to pick a different victim. But that doesn’t account for intoxicated/drugged criminals, very inexperienced criminals, and professional criminals.)  

 

Protecting Yourself Against Crime and Violence
 by thc0655
Note: This post deals with personal security, one of the most asked-for topics by this community. However, we realize it is a sensitive if not scary topic for some. The intent here is have an open and mature exploration of an important subject. Please respect the author's efforts to do just that.
 
My wife and I live in Philadelphia on the “green line” between mostly-prosperous Center City and mostly-wasteland North Philadelphia. People are very aware of crime around here, as you might imagine, and many people have taken numerous steps to avoid becoming victims. That being said, I am still surprised on a nearly daily basis how unprepared and unaware some people are. (I’m a Police Sergeant, so I see many people who have been caught off guard by criminals. And that’s a very important first tip: If the criminal cannot catch you off guard and unprepared, he’s most likely going to pick a different victim. But that doesn’t account for intoxicated/drugged criminals, very inexperienced criminals, and professional criminals.)  

 

Image | Robert McFarlane: Open Fuel Standards Are Critical to Fighting the Peak Oil Catastrophe
Robert McFarlane: Open Fuel Standards Are Critical to Fighting the Peak Oil Catastrophe
by Chris Martenson

"Well, I wish I had a more hopeful answer for you. You've nailed it. We really are very likely to face either a disruption violently [by terrorism] or a political decision by OPEC to change the price of oil to $200 to $300 per barrel and literally destroy the global economy."

So predicts Robert McFarlane in today's interview, which focuses on current U.S. energy policy and the risks it faces. Mr. McFarlane's many decades of public and private service in both the Middle East and global energy markets make him uniquely qualified to opine on the merits (or lack thereof) of the energy strategy that the U.S. is pursuing.

He sees the U.S. as committed to a foolish "monopoly-fuel" system that leaves it dependent upon and dangerously vulnerable to the actions of external players, including those hostile to U.S. interests. And as the impacts of Peak Oil begin to be felt, he believes it is a near certainty that our country – along with the global economy – will experience great shocks which we have no plans currently in place to address sufficiently. The solution lies in creating a viable market for alternative fuels, which is in our power to do, provided we can muster the political and civic will. And do so quickly.
Robert McFarlane: Open Fuel Standards Are Critical to Fighting the Peak Oil Catastrophe
 by Chris Martenson

"Well, I wish I had a more hopeful answer for you. You've nailed it. We really are very likely to face either a disruption violently [by terrorism] or a political decision by OPEC to change the price of oil to $200 to $300 per barrel and literally destroy the global economy."

So predicts Robert McFarlane in today's interview, which focuses on current U.S. energy policy and the risks it faces. Mr. McFarlane's many decades of public and private service in both the Middle East and global energy markets make him uniquely qualified to opine on the merits (or lack thereof) of the energy strategy that the U.S. is pursuing.

He sees the U.S. as committed to a foolish "monopoly-fuel" system that leaves it dependent upon and dangerously vulnerable to the actions of external players, including those hostile to U.S. interests. And as the impacts of Peak Oil begin to be felt, he believes it is a near certainty that our country – along with the global economy – will experience great shocks which we have no plans currently in place to address sufficiently. The solution lies in creating a viable market for alternative fuels, which is in our power to do, provided we can muster the political and civic will. And do so quickly.
Image | Cultivating Inner Resilience in the Face of Crisis
Cultivating Inner Resilience in the Face of Crisis
by suziegruber

Abraham Maslow detailed a hierarchy of human needs as drivers of human motivation, postulating that we first attend to our physiological needs for air, food, and water, followed by our need for safety. Only when those needs are met do we then attend to higher level needs, such as creativity and achievement. Recognizing that energy descent will require significant changes in standard of living for most of us, we immediately want to secure the basics and find ways to make supplies of those basics resilient. 

 

 

Like many people, when I first learned about Peak Oil about six years ago, I began with physical preparation for a lower energy future. It makes total sense that many of us do this when recognizing danger ahead. The What Should I Do? guide here really supports us in learning about physical preparation. Chris says, “We are more resilient when we have multiple sources and systems to supply a needed item, rather than being dependent on a single source.” However, as Chris and many others have pointed out, all of our physical preparations are “necessary but insufficient,” because we simply don’t know what exactly will happen and we are totally dependent on natural resources for everything we consume every day.

So what else can we do? I believe we need to focus a significant part of our crisis preparation on developing inner resilience in addition to cultivating external, physical resilience. 

Cultivating Inner Resilience in the Face of Crisis
 by suziegruber

Abraham Maslow detailed a hierarchy of human needs as drivers of human motivation, postulating that we first attend to our physiological needs for air, food, and water, followed by our need for safety. Only when those needs are met do we then attend to higher level needs, such as creativity and achievement. Recognizing that energy descent will require significant changes in standard of living for most of us, we immediately want to secure the basics and find ways to make supplies of those basics resilient. 

 

 

Like many people, when I first learned about Peak Oil about six years ago, I began with physical preparation for a lower energy future. It makes total sense that many of us do this when recognizing danger ahead. The What Should I Do? guide here really supports us in learning about physical preparation. Chris says, “We are more resilient when we have multiple sources and systems to supply a needed item, rather than being dependent on a single source.” However, as Chris and many others have pointed out, all of our physical preparations are “necessary but insufficient,” because we simply don’t know what exactly will happen and we are totally dependent on natural resources for everything we consume every day.

So what else can we do? I believe we need to focus a significant part of our crisis preparation on developing inner resilience in addition to cultivating external, physical resilience. 

Image | Mapping The Fugly Future with David Collum
Mapping The Fugly Future with David Collum
by David Collum

In the course of his info-scouting, Chris has conversations with many different thinkers. Some are well-known to you; others perhaps less so. An important objective of our podcast interview series is to expose our listeners to the variety of voices and points of view that Chris considers when developing the perspective that he brings to his reporting.

David Collum may be a new voice to many of you. Like Chris, David came to the field of macroeconomic study from a scientific background. Again like Chris, his published observations and predictions have begun to amass a readership built on respect for his emprical approach to projecting the future. For those of you unfamilar with David's work, we think you'll enjoy having this insider's ear to his recent recorded discussion with Chris, which covers a wide range of topics.

In short, David sees a world where market risk has been removed (through misguided government intervention), leading to perverse behavior. In many ways, we are repeating the sins of past empires – and he warns us that history has a much higher incident rate of soverign insolvency than we may want to believe.
Mapping The Fugly Future with David Collum
 by David Collum

In the course of his info-scouting, Chris has conversations with many different thinkers. Some are well-known to you; others perhaps less so. An important objective of our podcast interview series is to expose our listeners to the variety of voices and points of view that Chris considers when developing the perspective that he brings to his reporting.

David Collum may be a new voice to many of you. Like Chris, David came to the field of macroeconomic study from a scientific background. Again like Chris, his published observations and predictions have begun to amass a readership built on respect for his emprical approach to projecting the future. For those of you unfamilar with David's work, we think you'll enjoy having this insider's ear to his recent recorded discussion with Chris, which covers a wide range of topics.

In short, David sees a world where market risk has been removed (through misguided government intervention), leading to perverse behavior. In many ways, we are repeating the sins of past empires – and he warns us that history has a much higher incident rate of soverign insolvency than we may want to believe.
Image | Obama’s Budget is a Fantastic Comedy
Obama’s Budget is a Fantastic Comedy
by Chris Martenson

Fantasy or comedy?  I couldn’t decide which way to label the Obama budget, so I went with both.

The bottom line is that the Obama administration has brought forth the most unbelievable revenue increase that I have ever seen proposed in a budget, a whopping 65% increase in revenues in just four years, which will – miracle of miracles – drop the deficit as a percent of GDP from nearly 11% to just 3.2% over those same four years.

The only problem with this scenario is that it stands virtually no chance of actually happening. Revenue will be far lower than projected and the deficit correspondingly higher.

Obama’s Budget is a Fantastic Comedy
 by Chris Martenson

Fantasy or comedy?  I couldn’t decide which way to label the Obama budget, so I went with both.

The bottom line is that the Obama administration has brought forth the most unbelievable revenue increase that I have ever seen proposed in a budget, a whopping 65% increase in revenues in just four years, which will – miracle of miracles – drop the deficit as a percent of GDP from nearly 11% to just 3.2% over those same four years.

The only problem with this scenario is that it stands virtually no chance of actually happening. Revenue will be far lower than projected and the deficit correspondingly higher.

Image | Egypt’s Warning: Are You Listening?
Egypt’s Warning: Are You Listening?
by Chris Martenson

One day, a fruit and vegetable seller was arrested in Tunisia, sparking social unrest, and a few weeks later the government of Egypt was set to topple. 

Such is the nature of complex, chaotic, and unpredictable systems. The stresses build for years and years, and nothing really seems to be happening, but then everything suddenly changes. Egypt is therefore emblematic of what we might expect in any complex system in which pressures are building, such as the US Treasury market.  

Can events in complex systems ever be predicted? No…and yes. No, because the precise timing and details can never be predicted. Yes, because we can be certain that anything that is unsustainable will someday cease to continue and things that are horribly imbalanced will someday topple. We can also be certain that the change, when it comes, will be rather sudden and abrupt, rather than gentle and linear.

That is, we can easily predict that a complex system will shift, and that it will probably do so rapidly, but not exactly when or by how much.

Egypt’s Warning: Are You Listening?
 by Chris Martenson

One day, a fruit and vegetable seller was arrested in Tunisia, sparking social unrest, and a few weeks later the government of Egypt was set to topple. 

Such is the nature of complex, chaotic, and unpredictable systems. The stresses build for years and years, and nothing really seems to be happening, but then everything suddenly changes. Egypt is therefore emblematic of what we might expect in any complex system in which pressures are building, such as the US Treasury market.  

Can events in complex systems ever be predicted? No…and yes. No, because the precise timing and details can never be predicted. Yes, because we can be certain that anything that is unsustainable will someday cease to continue and things that are horribly imbalanced will someday topple. We can also be certain that the change, when it comes, will be rather sudden and abrupt, rather than gentle and linear.

That is, we can easily predict that a complex system will shift, and that it will probably do so rapidly, but not exactly when or by how much.

Image | Joe Saluzzi on High-Frequency Trading: The Equity Market Is Now Controlled by the Machines
Joe Saluzzi on High-Frequency Trading: The Equity Market Is Now Controlled by the Machines
by Chris Martenson

Joe Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading LLC and outspoken exchange expert, is concerned with how high-frequency trading has brought the capital markets into uncharted – and dangerous – territory.

"Things have changed," he cautions. With 50-70% of all trades being conducted by algorithms at micro-second time intervals, real human traders are increasingly challenged to understand how our markets actually work. "No longer do the technical patterns – that have lasted for years and years, and are written about all over – work anymore."

In the following interview, Joe and Chris plunge into "dark pools" and other poorly-understood elements of our now-machine-dominated financial exchanges. The current system is fraught with risks of further "flash crash"-like disruptions, and at a fundmental level, feels a lot like sanctioned theft by the deep-pocketed institutions who can outspend on technology and speed. This is an important interview for anyone involved in trading (professionally or personally), as well as investors who want to know how today's markets truly operate.
Joe Saluzzi on High-Frequency Trading: The Equity Market Is Now Controlled by the Machines
 by Chris Martenson

Joe Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading LLC and outspoken exchange expert, is concerned with how high-frequency trading has brought the capital markets into uncharted – and dangerous – territory.

"Things have changed," he cautions. With 50-70% of all trades being conducted by algorithms at micro-second time intervals, real human traders are increasingly challenged to understand how our markets actually work. "No longer do the technical patterns – that have lasted for years and years, and are written about all over – work anymore."

In the following interview, Joe and Chris plunge into "dark pools" and other poorly-understood elements of our now-machine-dominated financial exchanges. The current system is fraught with risks of further "flash crash"-like disruptions, and at a fundmental level, feels a lot like sanctioned theft by the deep-pocketed institutions who can outspend on technology and speed. This is an important interview for anyone involved in trading (professionally or personally), as well as investors who want to know how today's markets truly operate.
Image | How long can the party in stocks last?
How long can the party in stocks last?
by Chris Martenson

The headlines are screaming at the top of every financial media outlet tonight:  The Dow Closes Above 12,000 For the First Time in Two Years!

What’s going on here?  Is the recovery well and truly underway?   And, if it is, why is the Fed dropping hints again that “QE3 may get discussed” at future Fed meetings, as Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said on Feb 1st?

Given the raft of good economic news lately, one might be forgiven for wondering what the Fed has in mind here.  If everything is so economically rosy, why are they already dropping trial balloons about more Quantitative Easing?  What are they seeing that we are not seeing, that justifies more than $100 billion in thin air money each month, and why won’t they just tell us what it is? 

Here’s how PeakProsperity.com member dbworld put it earlier today:

How long can the party in stocks last?
 by Chris Martenson

The headlines are screaming at the top of every financial media outlet tonight:  The Dow Closes Above 12,000 For the First Time in Two Years!

What’s going on here?  Is the recovery well and truly underway?   And, if it is, why is the Fed dropping hints again that “QE3 may get discussed” at future Fed meetings, as Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said on Feb 1st?

Given the raft of good economic news lately, one might be forgiven for wondering what the Fed has in mind here.  If everything is so economically rosy, why are they already dropping trial balloons about more Quantitative Easing?  What are they seeing that we are not seeing, that justifies more than $100 billion in thin air money each month, and why won’t they just tell us what it is? 

Here’s how PeakProsperity.com member dbworld put it earlier today:

Image | Problem Solving: Improvise, Adapt, Overcome
Problem Solving: Improvise, Adapt, Overcome
by mooselick7

“Improvise, Adapt, Overcome” is an unofficial slogan among Marines made popular by Clint Eastwood’s movie, Heartbreak Ridge. Whether you plan to bug in or bug out should tough times occur, the ability to improvise, adapt, and overcome problems will be necessary regardless of how well-stocked, tooled, provisioned, or conditioned you are.

Honing this ability will serve you well. These skills can be cultivated easily in any setting and without a lot of money. Moreover, to build your skills quickly, I recommend that you strive to develop them WITHOUT money. Get creative. No one can take a skill away from you. It boils down to changing your perspective, engaging your creative mind, learning to learn, and improving your physical, mental, and spiritual capacity. 

Problem Solving: Improvise, Adapt, Overcome
 by mooselick7

“Improvise, Adapt, Overcome” is an unofficial slogan among Marines made popular by Clint Eastwood’s movie, Heartbreak Ridge. Whether you plan to bug in or bug out should tough times occur, the ability to improvise, adapt, and overcome problems will be necessary regardless of how well-stocked, tooled, provisioned, or conditioned you are.

Honing this ability will serve you well. These skills can be cultivated easily in any setting and without a lot of money. Moreover, to build your skills quickly, I recommend that you strive to develop them WITHOUT money. Get creative. No one can take a skill away from you. It boils down to changing your perspective, engaging your creative mind, learning to learn, and improving your physical, mental, and spiritual capacity. 

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