Weak Payrolls and a Big Dollar Rally: Long Rates Rise as Short Rates, Metals, and the Dow Fall

Consumer Economy

• Q2 GDP (GDP) 32.56T +656.8B (+2.06% q/q)
• Personal Income (PI) 27.63T +66.6B (+0.24% m/m)
• Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES) 16.0M -585.0K (-3.53% m/m)
• Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) 159.0M +29.0K (+0.02% m/m)

Q2 GDP (not adjusted for inflation) was revised higher (from 1.5% q/q to 2.06% q/q).  That’s 8.24% annualized. BOOMING!

What’s the current little-people share of that? Personal Income grew 0.24% m/m, which is 2.88% annualized.

Auto/light truck sales fell 585k units; moving lower, but still close to the highs, so not recessionary. Heavy truck sales fell 4.04% m/m (1391 units) – this is a recession indicator, and it isn’t looking great – but not a new low.

Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 29k m/m, while 85k m/m was expected. July was revised lower (+21k to -10k), as was August (+162k to +133k). Will this month be revised lower too?  Part-time work and Slack Work did not change much; no signal there.

Private Payrolls (USPRIV) rose +46k m/m.

In contrast, ADP private payrolls rose by +90k m/m. What areas rose in ADP?

Sickcare saw the largest gains, of course – Education & Health Services. +55k jobs.

BOOMING.  Is that connected to With a Disability?

Respiratory virus season has arrived. Flu, COVID-19 and RSV vaccines are available [Oct 2]

(source – KSL)

Get Boosted! Do what you can to help depopulation!

Change in U.S. private employment (ADP):

• Total Private +90,000
• Education and Health Services +55,000
• Leisure/Hospitality +22,000
• Construction +15,000
• Manufacturing +15,000
• Information +3000
• Mining -1000
• Financial -16,000
• Prof/Business Services -11,000

With a Disability

• CNP (LNU00074597) 36.7M +175k +0.48%
• CLF (LNU01074597) 9.06M +87k +0.97%
• EMP (LNU02074597) 8.38M +102k +1.23%
• NILF (LNU05074597) 27.6M +88k +0.32%

Disability increased in all sectors, but none of them made new all-time highs. That said, the MA12 (that eliminates the variation from summer/winter “Vitamin D” season impacts) did hit a new all-time high. I think this is a clearer marker of what Senile Joe et al did to the population of America.  Who was it again?  Zients/Klain, if memory serves. How many people died as a direct result?

And the MA12 for disability is not stopping – possibly because there is no “off switch” for that Safe & Effective mRNA spike protein production in some people.

• Native-Born (LNU02073413) 132.18M +298k +0.23%
• Foreign-Born