Consumer Economy
- Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES) 16.3M -234.0K (-1.41% m/m)
- Average Hourly Earnings (AHETPI) 37.62 +0.02 (+0.05% m/m)
- Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) 158.9M -23.0K (-0.01%
Auto/light truck sales inched lower – but remain near the highs. Recession-indicator Heavy Truck Sales ticked lower, but also remain near the recent highs.
Part of payrolls is Average Hourly Earnings, which hardly moved at all this month and is definitely not keeping up with inflation. Here’s a chart of AHETPI, divided by my usual GDP denominator. I had to multiply by a trillion to get numbers to show up. So 1T x 37.62 = 1, when that same math got you 3.73 back in 1964. Maybe that’s why Brady could support his whole family so easily back in 1968? And why do the “Boomers” think “just work hard and it’s no problem”? I did another AHETPI/Silver chart. It looked more sporadic, but in the end: AHETPI = 2 ounces back in 1964, while it’s half an ounce today.
The change in overall payrolls (black line) fell back into negative territory; what’s more, last month’s BOOMING gain (it’s a joke, son) was revised down by 37k to just +20k. Private payrolls (black line) remain slightly positive. You can see that overall net payrolls are bouncing around zero.
Largest changes per sector:
- Education/Health Services (USEHS) 27.962M +25k +0.09%
- Construction (USCONS) 8.343M +22k +0.26%
- Leisure/Hospitality (USLAH) 16.931M -40k -0.24%
- US Government (USGOVT) 23.270M -53k -0.23%
Leisure tanks, health services increase, as does construction. Sounds like recession (-USLAH) data centers (+USCONS) meets With a Disability (+USEHS).
BOOMING.
Payrolls Revisions
PAYEMS
- 2026-05 129k => 63k [-66k]
- 2026-06 57k => 20k [-37k]
USPRIV [total private]
- 2026-05 97k => 61k [-36k]
- 2026-06 49k => 30k [-19k]
These revisions (seemingly always in one direction) are confidence-destroying. I just assume there will be a downward revision next month. It reminds me of Kash Patel and Dan Bongino telling us that Epstein definitely killed himself.
With a Disability
- CNP (LNU00074597) 37.03 +124k +0.34%
- CLF (LNU01074597) 9.08M +263k +2.98%
- EMP (LNU02074597) 8.27M +217k +2.69%
- NILF (LNU05074597) 27.95M -139k -0.49%
This month saw yet another new all-time high in total population (CNP) With a Disability. Things aren’t getting better. But fortunately, we have a new Safe & Effective mRNA FluVax.
by davefairtex 
