Consumer Economy
- Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER) 315.5B -4.4B (-1.37% m/m)
- CPI All Urban (CPIAUCSL) +0.87% m/m
- GDP (GDPC1) 24.05T +289.2B (+0.12% q/q)
- Personal Income (PI) 26.66T -18.1B (-0.07% m/m)
Durable Goods Orders (next month’s production) inched lower, but are still higher than what happened back during Senile Joe et al. Not recessionary.
Grossly understated CPI shot higher, up 0.87% m/m. Energy was the culprit: the overall category was up a crazy +11.9% m/m vs February. Transportation also rose 1.1% (m/m); vaxxident repair +1.3% m/m, and airline fares rose +3.4% m/m. This was a YUGE increase in CPI – if it happens every month, its 10.44% annualized.
The biggest element increase in CPI: “Fuel Oil”, +29.4% m/m.
If you want to see the details, go to the CPI release, and look at the “Unadjusted percent change” column, Feb.2026-Mar.2026 sub-column.
Q1 GDP (adjusted for inflation) rose 0.12%. That’s recessionary.
Personal income actually fell – that’s not an index, it’s a dollar amount. That’s recessionary.
Sums to stagflation, with the little people seeing a double-whammy of declining income alongside higher energy prices.
Credit & Rates
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 19.42T +33.1B (+0.17% w/w)
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.69T +18.5B (+0.28% w/w)
- US 30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.37% -9 bp
- 3-Month Treasury (DGS3MO) 3.68% -3 bp
- 1-Year Treasury (DGS1) 3.68% -4 bp
- 10-Year Treasury (DGS10) 4.32% -3 bp
- 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT.N) -0.35% w/w
- Confidence (AAA10Y) 1.10% -3 bp
Bank credit moved higher; 8.8% annual rate. Not recessionary. Sectors include:
- Securities: -0.35% w/w
- Commercial/Industrial: +1.08% w/w
- Real Estate: -0.05% w/w
- Consumer: +0.32% w/w
- All Other Loans: +0.62% w/w
Recessionary for real estate.
The Fed continued printing money this week – roughly similar to what they did last week – an annual rate of 963 BILLION dollars. This, while the CPI is screaming higher due to the US fighting Bibi’s war in Iran. Now, why on earth would the Fed be printing all that money with all this war-energy-inflation?
Fed Seeks Details on US Banks’ Exposure to Private Credit Firms [Apr 11]
The Treasury Department is also questioning the insurance industry about exposures to private credit, said people with knowledge of those separate discussions.
(source – bloomberg)
We have a Senile-Joe-level for
by flyingdoc 
