Consumer Economy
- Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER) 323.8B +16.2B (+5.27% m/m) (prior -2.09% m/m)
- Producer Prices (PPIACO) 260.7 -0.67 (-0.26% m/m) (prior +0.24% m/m)
- University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT) 52.9 +1.90 (+3.73%)
PPI has been moving slowly lower for the past 4 months. Not inflationary.
Durable Goods (New Orders) rose fairly strongly; this suggests positive economic results ahead. AI data center buildout, perhaps?
Consumer Sentiment (at 52.9) rose, but is still just slightly above all-time lows. The little people think they’re in a bad recession already.
Credit & Rates
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 19.12T +73.5B (+0.39% w/w) (prior +0.29% w/w)
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.59T +3.0B (+0.05% w/w) (prior +0.04% w/w)
- US 30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.10% +1 bp
- 3-Month Treasury (DGS3MO) 3.66% -4 bp
- 1-Year Treasury (DGS1) 3.48% -5 bp
- 10-Year Treasury (DGS10) 4.26% +2 bp
- 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT.N) -0.91% w/w (prior +0.15% w/w)
Bank credit expanded strongly again this week (+0.39% = 20% annualized). No recession – that’s inflationary. Year over year, bank credit is now above 6%. Chris’s new Renaissance Report on banking and money creation helps explain why I watch bank credit every single week – it doesn’t pinpoint who is borrowing, it is a system-level diagnostic.
No material money printing by the Fed this week (+3B = 2.6% annualized).
Mostly, short-term rates fell [hints of a rate cut next month?], while longer-term rates increased. The 30-year took the biggest hit – it saw a 7 bp increase. That rate increase caused TLT to drop.
No rate increase at the Fed meeting. Powell had his press conference on Wednesday, in which he told everyone just how amazing the Fed staff were. Powell’s term expires in May. There were also lots of questions that he refused to answer. One, right at the end, talked about gold. I’ve never heard anyone [dare to] ask Powell about gold until this week.
Fed Press Conference [Jan 28]
@1h:41m:09s
Q: As I’m sure you’ve noticed, gold-n-silver prices have experienced historic gains of late. And I’m wondering how much attention if any you have paid to those moves, and what message you may take from these significant price increases we’ve seen for precious metals.
A: Don’t take much message macro-economically. Um, the argument can be made that its, you know, we’re losing credibility.
by scohodatt-net