Consumer Economy
Producer Prices (PPIACO) -0.05% m/m
CPI All Urban (CPIAUCSL) +0.38% m/m
PPI actually declined slightly, while CPI rose 0.38% m/m; if CPI keeps rising like this, it would be a 4.56% annual rate. This reading appears one week before “Too Late Powell” is due to maybe-kinda-sorta cut rates at next week’s meeting.
CPI Inflation Dishes Up Another Nasty Surprise, as it Tends to Do [Sep 11]
(source – wolfstreet)
Wolf has the tables, from which I cherry-pick mostly just the highest numbers. Note these are month-over-month changes; if they happened every month, they’d be horrific.
+ Airlines, etc: +3.6% m/m
+ Hotels/Motels: +2.3% m/m
+ Vaxxident (Vehicle) Repair: +2.4% m/m
+ Delivery: +1.4% m/m
+ Beef: +2.7% m/m
+ Vegetables: +3.0% m/m
+ Coffee/Tea: +3.6% m/m
+ Medical Care/Insurance: -0.1% m/m
My sense: all the deportations are making hotels/motels, delivery, vaxxident repair, beef, and vegetables a lot more expensive. Maybe the forced-vax-disability is making the airlines more expensive, too. Healthy pilots and aircrew may be hard to find, due to “with a disability” + altitude + mandated-spike-protein = I can’t work anymore, and/or all the unvaxxed crew being snatched up to fly the Oligarchy’s private jets.
Vax-Disability + Deportation = inflation.
And of course, “they” are lying about the pretend-decline in “Medical” Care (engineered sick-care) insurance.
Credit & Rates
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.61T +3.9B (+0.06% w/w)
Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 18.69T -39.3B (-0.21% w/w)
30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.35% -15 bp
3-Month Treasury (DGS3MO) 4.03 -4 bp
5-Year Treasury (DGS5) 3.65 +5 bp
30-Year Treasury (DGS30) 4.78 -8 bp
20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) 89.95 +1.39 +1.57% w/w
No QT this week.
Total Bank Credit fell BIGLY this week – about 12% annualized. Over the past 4 weeks, bank credit was +39B, then -16B, then +71B, now -39B; that’s +55B / 4 weeks = 13B/week, or 3.6% annualized. That’s deflationary.
The mortgage rate series lags bonds by a week. This week, mortgage rates dropped by 15 basis points.
Overall, money moved out of the 5-year and into both the 3-month (-4 bp) and the 30-year (-8 bp), which explains why TLT rose 1.57% on the week. Bonds are where Big Money goes to play, and a 30-year rally (30-year rate decline) is “bad news” from a risk standpoint.
by wotthecurtains 
