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220616_IC12_youtube-mp3.Reaction Adjustments

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:00:09] Hello, everyone. Dr. Chris Martenson here with you. I am traveling today, so I can’t do a live cast, but I’m going to do this prerecorded intro. We’re going to be going through a piece called The Adjustment Reactions. Really important now. Let me look at my phone here real quick. Yeah, the Dow is down another 700 points as I’m recording this here on Thursday about, I don’t know, 12:00 local time here down in Belize. I met this incredible investment conference right here. We got Danielle DiMartino Booth here. We got George Gammon. We’ve got some incredible people here.

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:00:39] And the consensus is among everybody looks at all the big data is that we’re coming into a pretty intense recession. So what does that mean? Well, you know, recessions that kind of painful. And a lot of people are going to have to make some new decisions. People could lose jobs. Things happen during recessions. This one is going to probably be ridiculously bad because the Federal Reserve, in their infinite lack of wisdom, managed to go out there and do things they shouldn’t have done, which was pour trillions of dollars in, create enormous bubbles, housing bubbles, bond bubbles, stock bubbles, very painful. And even one bubble burst ultra painful when several of them go at once. Inflation out of control right now, by their standards, by my standards, maybe by your standards, which means the Fed’s going to have to go farther and deeper than most people are prepared for. Just yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points. That’s three quarters of a percent, and that is historically an unusually large amount and an unusually large amount at a time when there’s a lot of leverage, a lot of debt in the system. Okay. What does all that mean? It means you have to be ready. We all have to be ready for a big drawdown. The consensus is that, well, maybe this is a time to have dry powder, make sure that you have cash saved up because there probably better prices for things coming in the future. Guess what? None of that matters. None of that’s useful unless you are prepared, mentally prepared to take advantage of those situations when they arise. So nothing harder in investing than selling when there’s greed in the air. Nothing harder than buying when there’s blood in the streets. Those are really hard things to do and those are psychological conditions. How do you get around that?

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:02:27] Here’s where we have to talk about adjustment reactions. I want to bring forward this piece of work that I did, just the central fragment of it that I did back in March of 2020. Because the adjustment reaction is a psychological process that determines how quickly somebody is or is not going to adjust to a change in circumstances. So during a crisis, this is very well studied. Some people respond very well, very rapidly. Some people react very poorly, very slowly. In either case, it doesn’t make people better or worse. It’s just part of the human experience. Some of us are fast adjusters. Some of us are slow adjusters. Nothing wrong with either. You need both. You need all types. However, in a time of crisis, if you understand the adjustment reaction, you’ll know yourself. Better be. You’ll know other people better. See, you’ll know if you’re a fast or slow adjuster, whether you’re going to be in a position to help other people during crises, or you’re going to need to ask for help from people during crises. Again, both sides are totally fine. It doesn’t matter. I’m not here to try and guide people into becoming fast adjusters. But if you are not a best adjuster, you should know that about yourself and find someone who is because they can help you navigate these times that are coming up a little bit better. Our community needs all different kinds of people. So today I’m bringing you back the adjustment reactions. I want to talk about this. We’re going to talk about this back at my website in more detail as well. That’s Peak Prosperity dot com if you are not a member there yet. Wow, you’re missing out on what I think is an incredible value proposition. We give away so much for the money we charge and it’s just a wonderful community of people. So I’m your information scout. I’m out here every day trying to find out the information that we all need to make the decisions that are required to be resilient in these coming times. So check this out. And if you haven’t, make sure that you’re a member at Peak Prosperity. If you want to follow this kind of information, you want to follow me. You want to follow the kinds of people who are attracted to this message, which, by the way, they’re are people just like you. We’re the curious. We’re the remnant. We’re the people who are actually going to be tasked with picking up the pieces when these things continue to evolve a little bit. So that’s the world we live in. Thanks so much for listening to this. Check out this presentation on adjustment reactions. I think you’re going to love it. I will see you next week. Back live in the studio. All right. Enjoy and see you next time.

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:04:59] All right. So I want to turn now to something that’s really important. And this is something I’ve been wanting to share for a while. And I. Jenny and Chris both got to the heart of this penny asking So thankful for your wisdom communications. Can you address the phenomenon of anger towards those of us who are trying to prepare? I have lost close friends over COVID 19, not from the virus, but because they are angry. Angry at the virus and angry at me for staying informed is sad. Totally get where you’re coming from, Penny. And lots of people have experienced that, especially people who are on here now listening to this, Chris says, I got grilled by my family weeks ago for buying N95 mask, water, toilet paper, rice, beans, etc.. They finally said, sorry for getting mad at me today. So what’s happening here? What’s happening is something called the adjustment reaction. And this is an incredible piece of writing here by Peter Sandeman. I got it from this link down here and of course these links again will be available below. This I’m going to read, I’m going to we’re going to go through this whole article. It’s just that good. And it relates very closely to something that I wrote back in 2008. But this is better. So I’m going to go through this because it’s just it’s just a better version of what I was trying to say.

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:06:14] Adjustment Reactions. The Teachable Moment in crisis communication. Hard to get a sense of it from there, but trust me, this is worth it. This is really good. When someone first learns about a new and potentially serious risk, the natural, healthy and youthful reaction is, in a sense, an overreaction. This is really important because what he’s talking about here is that the adjustment reaction is just a human thing. It’s expected, it’s ordinary, it’s usual. It shouldn’t be minimized. And everybody’s going to have it, including you. Including me. All right. But we have it to different degrees, so let’s go through this. So you learn about a new potentially serious risk. You pause while you wait to see what’s going to happen. You may stop doing things that suddenly feel dangerous. After 911, some people quit flying for a while or stayed away from skyscrapers. During the anthrax attacks, some people hesitated to open their mail when a U.S. cow was discovered with mad cow disease. Some people briefly avoided hamburgers afterwards. You know, people might laugh at you and say, Oh, ha ha ha, why did you quit flying? You know? Or, you know, you were afraid of hamburgers. But it actually this is a very normal reaction. If your ancestors didn’t do this, you wouldn’t be here today. What is wired into us around risks in every animal if you go outside, has lots of risks. If you watch birds at the bird feeder, they’re constantly on alert. We just have maybe gotten a little disconnected from all the things that could be risks. But trust me, having a healthy fear, avoidance and and a tuned sense of risk is a survival tool. And it’s built into us for good reason. Evolution had a plan. All right. You become hyper vigilant. You watch TV news more than you used to or check Google News every few hours. You may scrutinize suspicious looking people in nearby cars, restaurant booths, an airplane seats. Or if somebody’s coughing that, oh my God, it’s practically like they pulled a gun out and fired a round into the ground for me. I bet you’re feeling that way too, right? You wonder what that white powder might be and consider whether you should notify the authorities referring back to the anthrax attacks. You personalize the risk. You imagine what it would be like if it were you. If a risk that is already hurting others and may be coming your way. We’re actually here now. You might even imagine that it is actually here now. So you take extra precautions, precautions that are probably unnecessary or at least premature. You go up for Mexican food instead of Chinese food if you’re worried about SA or Chinese food instead of Mexican food, if you’re worried about hepatitis. Right. So these things often get laughed at and they’re called overreactions by people who who didn’t allow themselves to have the reactions in the first place. But in fact, this is the normal, natural way that we’re wired. And people who are denying themselves these reactions are actually truncating, suppressing their adjustment reactions. So what is this adjustment reaction?

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:09:10] Well, let’s start here. These responses are signs of what psychiatrists call an adjustment reaction. The part of the process of adjusting to new risk. A normal, healthy part. Here are the key characteristics of the adjustment reaction to crisis. First, it’s automatic. Okay. That is, it’s not entirely under your conscious control. Critics may seize on this characteristic, ridiculing the adjustment reaction as knee jerk. But notice, please, that knee jerk reactions are sometimes preferable to conscious ones in crisis situations because they’re quicker when your doctor checks your reflexes during a medical exam, the doctor is hoping they’re working, knee jerk and all. It is healthy to pull back automatically after touching a hot stove or almost falling into a hole. You don’t want to have to think about that first, so it’s just automatic. And there are people who do this more automatically. There are people who are faster at it. People have slower reflexes. Right. And that’s normal, too. Some people can jump higher. Some people can do a math faster in their head. But the adjustment reaction is a very ordinary, normal process. It’s automatic, too. It comes early. We may be in the early moments of a crisis that hasn’t gotten big or gotten here. We may be experiencing a precursor event, a potential crisis that either will or will not turn into an actual crisis this time. Obviously it may be a false alarm or the real thing, and that’s when it’s most useful to adjust a newspaper headline. That fear is spreading faster than SaaS. Missed the point. The last thing we want is a crisis that spreads faster than people’s concern about it. That’s happening right now. This virus is moving much faster than people’s concern about it. Almost an order of magnitude faster. It is a survival trait to take a risk seriously before it engulfs you. Right. All the water disappears from the beach. You don’t want to be that person wandering out, picking up all those clams and fish flopping around out there. Right. That there’s a tsunami coming. The last thing we want is a crisis that spreads faster than people’s concern about it. So a good, healthy adjustment reaction comes early. Number three, it’s temporary. The adjustment reaction is a temporary phenomenon that eases the transition to whatever is next. Very important. It eases the transition it because this is what’s really happening right now as we all have to transition from the world that we used to know, we’re having this huge disruption and there’s a new world in front of us, whatever that is. So we need to transition to that. And you don’t just do it automatically, you know, right away. There’s a process. So the adjustment reaction, it’s a phenomenon. It’s temporary and it eases that transition to whatever is next. Very few people get stuck in a long term overreaction. Those who do are said by psychiatrists to have an adjustment disorder and may need clinical help. The rest of us overreact, but only briefly. Then the threat passes and we stop taking precautions or we settle into the new normal. A longer term state of preparedness or the growing crisis makes our early reaction completely appropriate. Added the word completely there. All right. Number four, it is a small overreaction. A lot of you are going to resonate with this one. I’m sure the adjustment reaction is excessive, mostly because it’s technically premature, not because it’s disproportionate. So I’ll tell you about my technically premature thing was at Costco four or five weeks ago. Right, with my shopping cart loaded up with stuff. I got some stares. People like, oh, my God, you know this? What’s this guy doing? You know? And it looked premature and it looked like an overreaction, but it wasn’t. If I could have, you know, looking back, knowing what I know now, I would have filled up eight of those carts because I now know people who failed to do this. And I prepped for some of them, but I didn’t. I, I was totally I did not do it nearly as much as I would have. Knowing what I know now. All right. So it wasn’t disproportionate. It was just premature in that sense, right? If and when the actual crisis arrives, this level of reaction in more may well become standard and even mandatory. Bingo. That’s where we are right now. If the adjustment reaction is way out of proportion, not just to what is happening so far, but to also what could happen. It’s an adjustment disorder. So there’s a range of reactions in your how do you know how much is too much? That’s why you got to go with the data. That’s why we’ve been putting out this data clearly and consistently and just showing the exponential growth and explosion of this thing, because this thing says you can’t move too fast as fast as you can possibly move. If you’re lucky, you’re going to stay in front of this thing, but the people around you probably won’t. But it may be a little out of proportion. When you pull back from accidentally touching a hot stove. Your reflex moves briefly moves you farther from the stove than is actually needed to avoid getting burned. All right. But the adjustment reaction bar for this is a small overreaction. It may need guidance. Adjustment reactions shouldn’t be disproportionate, but that doesn’t mean that they are necessarily well-informed and well chosen. People who decide to wear a mask because of a SaaS outbreak or a chemical release not only tend to put it on sooner than they need it, they may also be wearing the wrong mask or wearing it incorrectly. These people, they may need guidance on how best to act on their fear, on which precautions are wisest. So of course, we all need guidance on this.

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:14:42] This is why I completely deplore the terrible misinformation, cross communication, differing pieces of advice out there that health authorities are putting out because it’s wildly inconsistent. Probably the worst of them would be masks are more harmful than helpful for the average person. Bunk, that is complete bullshit. All right. This is a really important one here, too. These are all important. But I keep saying it. This one is important, too. It serves as a rehearsal. The adjustment reaction is an emotional rehearsal, getting you psychologically ready to cope if you have to. It is also a logistical rehearsal. It’s show. It’s how you start figuring out what to do and how to do it. The value of rehearsing emotionally and logistically explains why premature isn’t such a devastating criticism. You can’t rehearse after the show starts. People who’ve gone through a successful adjustment reaction are better prepared to cope with the crisis when it comes. So if the military wants to go into, say, Fallujah, what they do is they go out and they mock up that town and it’s and its exact streets as best they can out in the desert in Arizona. And they take their people through and they train. And not one person in a thousand would say, Oh, that’s stupid because we get it. We’re like, Oh, yeah, you train pilots go into flight simulators, right? We expect, require and demand our professionals to have levels of training, particularly the more complex something is, the more we’d expect them to train. We want surgeons to go through residencies and training and we want them to practice on grapes before eyeballs and all that stuff. Right. But somehow when it comes to individuals needing to think about how I’m going to have this extraordinary disruption in my life, or I may be quarantined for 4 to 6 weeks inside my home, that’s an extraordinary disruption. How in any way, shape or form is it not completely healthy, normal and perfectly defensible for somebody to want to rehearse that? And it’s the emotional rehearsal that’s really going to be important. And this is where I think, you know, given the odds, given the number of people listening to this, some of us here, maybe myself, we’re going to experience direct loss based on this loss of loved ones, loss of people we know potentially an on a life basis, loss of jobs, loss of opportunities, loss of all kinds of things are going to happen. And those losses are emotional for us. They’re not just a technical thing. Right. So this adjustment reaction for people who’ve been listening to this, who gave themselves six weeks to begin preparing. There’s a train who gave themselves six weeks to prepare for this, have given themselves an important, important strip of runway to begin to get their plane off the ground that other people are going to have to try and adjust all at once. And that’s where their actual harm comes. And that’s what they call Ebola. We want to avoid panic.

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:17:30] But but really what authorities are doing when they say that is they’re denying people a lengthy adjustment process and they’re going to force them into a really panicked, harsh, nasty adjustment process. Probably no different than having the blanket ripped off from a deep sleep in cold water thrown on you. Right. It’s just there’s two ways to wake up. That’s not the right way. All right. Finally, number seven is it reduces the probability of later overreaction. Also important here, this is the most paradoxical payoff, because they have rehearsed because they are better prepared and feel better prepared. People have gone through a successful adjustment reaction are less likely to overreact to an actual crisis that follows. In this sense, an adjustment reaction functions a little like an inoculation. Just as important, people who’ve gone through a successful adjustment reaction tend to notice more quickly and recover more quickly when the crisis is over or when a threatened crisis has failed to materialize. So this whole thing is a really important process that people need to go through. All right. That’s an extra one. So I love how again, Peter Salmon, this link I’ve got it on the bottom of every one of these I please go. He’s got other really wonderful material there about this virus in particular, about crises in general. It’s just a very, very wonderful collection of material there. This is the teachable moment. Instead of criticizing or ridiculing people’s adjustment reactions to emerging crises, smart crisis communicators encourage the adjustment reactions, legitimize them, lie with them, and guide them. So every this is this informs why. And I brought this to my subscribers. These are the kinds of conversations. But what if you find this intriguing and you like knowing stuff like this? This is the kind of information I want up for the subscribers at Peak Prosperity. And these are the kinds of conversations we have because I think this is the this is the stuff that makes us more mature, a little bit smarter and a little bit more well prepared as having the mental framing as well as the appropriate body reactions, aligning those two pieces so that we can really move through life as best we can.

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:19:42] This is why I was criticizing so strongly a lot of what I saw as the official reactions out there, because they were absolutely working against this principle. And this is just a very easy to understand human sort of a principle. So if you think your government, your health authorities are acting in ways that feel anti-human, that feel sadistic, that feel against common sense, it’s because they’re operating in a way that’s trying to deny this, push it underground. And you know how it is when you try and deny a very human thing. It’s like squeezing jelly in your fist and it just comes out in all sorts of awkward ways, you know, squeezing between the fingers. So you can’t suppress normal human stuff. And trying to do it actually makes it worse, not better. And that should be crisis management one on one. I would expect all my crisis managers to get that all right. But they don’t. Okay. So in it’s okay to tell people they’re jumping the gun a little, that there’s still time and you advise them to hold off in particular preparations till the risk gets closer, bigger or clearer. It’s okay to recommend substitute precautions, precautions that are more useful or less burdensome or less likely to backfire than the ones they’re attracted to. And it’s okay to remind them that nobody knows yet whether the situation will worsen or blow over, that they should try to stay poised to ramp up or ramp down their level of concern. That’s all part of guiding the adjustment reaction. What is not okay is to suggest that people shouldn’t be worried yet, that they shouldn’t take any precautions or even think about what precautions they want to take. Until you give the word. It isn’t okay to tell people that they’re normal and useful. Impulse to rehearse is irrational or panicky. Healthy people are going to rehearse. They are going to imagine the worst before it happens and before we know for sure it’s coming. They are going to take premature precautions. An adjustment reaction is a big improvement over being caught unawares. Don’t try to tell people not to have one. Help them have a good one. Absolutely. Claps for that. All right. If you find yourself around people who are trying to prevent you from having an adjustment reaction, saying that their version of not having an adjustment reaction is the healthy one and mocking you for having a healthy one. You need to not be around those people because remember when you need to move fast, you don’t want that. You can’t have slow people on your team. Right. And it’s not that these are bad people. And I’m not at all saying that people who have slow adjustment processes are in any way defective or inferior or not worthy of our time, love, all of that. It’s just you got to recognize some people are fast adjusters and some aren’t. And when a fast adjustment process is called for, you need to have those people on your team. And if you haven’t got any of those people around you, well, then you’re a team of one, right? You know, as they say in the old African proverb, if you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together. So you’re there early. Adjust adjusters, adjust as quickly as you can. The other people will catch up, but they’re are somewhere else on that emotional process chain and they haven’t quite got there yet. So again, just to recap the adjustment reaction, seven steps. It’s automatic. It comes early. It’s temporary. It’s a small overreaction. Maybe some guidance serves as a dress rehearsal and it reduces the probability of a later overreaction. Super important. Back in 2008, in October, I wrote the six stages of awareness, wrapping this around Kubler-Ross Five Stages of Grief, which was I was talking about the economic crisis I saw coming at that time, and I only inserted one extra step in here. So denial, anger, bargaining, fear, depression, acceptance. It’s a very ordinary sort of a chain of emotional processes people come to. And it’s something you should expect because people coming to new information, especially belief, challenging information, is not a data driven process, it’s an emotional process. And so people’s belief systems are rooted in through the limbic system, into their bodies, and those are the need to be unhooked very carefully. And so just be aware of this. So denial, what would that look like? It’s just the flu, bro. These people are still in denial. They’re still out there. It’s amazing.

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:23:57] The data so overwhelming, you’re like, how can you be there still? It’s because they’re in very active denial because they’re defending a belief system that they’re not ready to let go of yet has nothing to do with the data. And then you might come out of denial and anger. You know, dude, I said, it’s the flu. Stop telling me about this. You know, they’re getting angry with you. We saw that in these early things where, yeah, back people were Penny and Chris were saying, you know, people are getting mad at them. They’re getting angry. Why are they getting angry? Because these people are probably at stage two and they’re at stage two out of the six stages of awareness. They’re at the anger stage because they’re there now. They’re there. They’ve just been woken up in an unpleasant way. They’re not happy with that. Next comes bargaining. Hey, I’m taking a little extra vitamin C. This is all going to be fine if I just, you know, you know, shop once a week instead of twice. What are those mental bargaining things are to help them feel better about it. Once they realize the bargaining isn’t working, fear or anxiety comes forward next. And then you might hear people worry about, Oh my God, everything’s going to collapse. I got to get toilet paper right now. This is where the panic start comes in. And of course, the officials who prevent us from having a normal, healthy adjustment reaction until it finally bursts fine that people skip right into fear usually. And they’re right. That’s not their right. Going straight to panic is a very bad way to do this. You shouldn’t do it that way. That’s a bad way to do it. Okay. Depression comes next. You know, my statements might be there’s no hope and there’s no point. We’re all going to get it anyway. I think the UK Prime Minister was basically at depression and hadn’t processed it appropriately. Well, let’s just let it move through. This is what he has to do. We can’t. There’s nothing we can do anyway. Let’s just let it burn through, right? Completely irresponsible thing to say. And finally, you get to acceptance and you say, well, it is what it is. You know, hey, this is the time I happen to be alive. This is what’s happening. So let’s do our best. Let’s help each other. This is what that would look like. It’s a very ordinary, normal process. As I wrote this all the way back in 2008, I would update it a little bit. I think this stands the test of time being it’s 12 years ago now. So what I wrote then was working through these stages. It’s not a one way trip, so you don’t just go what have been done in acceptance? We’re all good, right? I myself cycle through stages for. Four and six fear and acceptance pretty routinely, but spend less and less time with number four with every pass. And the model for that is, you know, if I go and I first time exposed to like the coronavirus, you know, a lot of fearful response and then I think I’ve got all myself all well prepared and then, oh, know what? What what’s happening in South Korea? Okay. All right. I prepared I feel pretty good. Oh, Italy doesn’t look so good, you know? And so I’m just past that. It’s getting smaller every time the amplitude is going down every time. And what I want, what I hope you take away from this, which is a big piece of writing around this, which you can find at this link right here, I invite you to read the whole article is that wherever you happen to be in these six stages will almost certainly shift over time. So it’s not again, it’s temporary, right? If you are uncomfortable with where you are in this process. No, that is temporary. My audacious, gigantic goal is to enable you to move through each of the six stages faster and more smoothly than I did. And that’s really my goal. And I should be your goal. Working with other people is to help them move through the stages. Lastly, please remember that everybody is somewhere along this curve. My experience is that the people who are further along tend to catch grief from the people who are not. All right. That’s that’s how this tends to work are advice that we’ve been handing out in seminars for years on communicating with reluctant partners, spouses, coworkers, friends, things like that. People who are not quite ready to be there yet is. You process your own adjustment reaction first and you get that out of the way because you need to approach people without an emotional agenda, meaning, oh, I’m so angry. Oh, I’m so fearful. I need you to join me in that anger or fear, people. I do this, everybody does this. We resist when somebody wants us to join their emotional state like no, thanks. Not not buying that today. Right. So the advice is to be as emotionally neutral as you can be, which is why you got to process your own stuff. First, watch out for signs that they aren’t ready yet and back off the second they say so. And this could be subtle, right? They might say things that are basically saying and I’m not ready for that. Right? Oh, yeah. Jeez, what do you think about the NBA canceling their stuff? Right. Just change the subject. Just move on. No matter what, no matter how well you present this, no matter how genius you are communicating, you might not be that person’s trusted source. And this could be your own sister or brother doesn’t listen to your own parents. This could be people that you otherwise love. It could be your husband or wife. You might not be that person’s trusted source. They may need to hear it from somebody in their friend circle, from somebody on TV you don’t know. But if you know they’re trusted sources, that’s a B. I’ll be curious. Be on the lookout for that, because if you can find their trusted source and then find their trusted source saying what you want them to hear, feed that to them instead of trying to be the person that conveys it. All right. And be patient. You know, you plant seeds, if that’s all you can do. You know, you might say, wow, I think this could be ten times worse in in two weeks. Plant it. Right. And then when it is ten times worse in two weeks, they will come back to you and say, you know, okay, what was that thing you said? That was kind of weird, how accurate that was. But be ready for when they come back. All right. And don’t gloat. Don’t fish for apologies. Don’t expect them. Don’t need them. That’s going to be that might be something you want or need, but that’s not going to help their adjustment process.

Dr. Chris Martenson [00:29:29] So just be be generous. All right. We also had a really great podcast recently with Peter Boghosian called How to Have Impossible Conversations, and that’s the title of his book on this. It’s a really great book. I invite you to listen to this podcast, get the book as well, because it goes really into more of the science behind how to have impossible conversations and why people how it is exactly that people formulate and shift beliefs. It’s not it’s not data, it’s not opinions, beliefs. This is from the transcript of that particular interview. Peter said People do not formulate their beliefs on the basis of evidence they think they do, but instead they cherry pick pieces of information or pieces of data to support the beliefs they already have. The key thing to understand is that people formulate their beliefs because of some moral impulse derived from a community to which they belong. They have a strong moral sense of why they ought to believe something. So arguing with the evidence doesn’t work trigger something called the backfire effect. It’s well-established in the literature where people just hunker down or double down on their beliefs. Great interview. I invite you to go check that out and.