Home Weekly Market Update: Russia War Heats Up; America’s Doctor MIA

Weekly Market Update: Russia War Heats Up; America’s Doctor MIA

user profile picture davefairtex Mar 07, 2022
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Well, last week I said to watch prices. This week, we saw prices explode higher, in virtually all of the commodities I track:

  • Gold: +84.30 [+4.27%]
  • Silver: +1.57 [+6.06%]
  • XAU: +12.11 [+7.81%]
  • Palladium: +626.27 [+26.97%]
  • Crude: +21.76 [+19.22%]
  • Copper: +0.43 [+8.76%]
  • Lumber: +100.84 [+7.76%]
  • USD: +2.15%
  • EUR: -2.99%
  • 10-year; -27 bp [to 1.70%]

Risk assets moved lower:

  • SPX: -55.78 [-1.29%]
  • JNK: -1.34%

Put simply, money fled Europe, to the buck, and into the 10-year, and – even more intensely – into commodities.

This week I’ll use gold/Euros. Given the very strong dollar rally this week, we need to add the big EUR/USD decline to the gold/USD rally to see what happened to gold/Euros. That adds up to a monster +7.67% weekly move for gold/Euros. You can see it below – gold/Euros broke out to a (checks notes) NEW ALL TIME HIGH this week. Wow. Big Money across-the-pond isn’t playing around.

Crude saw an even bigger move – up $21 to a new 11-year high. Another few pennies – we’d be looking at a 13-year high. This was an absurdly large move – the 4th largest weekly move on record. (The others: April 2020, Aug 1986, and Jan 2009). Anyone short got their clocks cleaned. I got an email from my broker talking about margin increases for crude oil futures. For me: now is the time for low stress trades. This is just too crazy. Even one single QM (500 bbl) crude future short would have resulted in a $10,500 loss this week. How many traders were blown up by this move? No idea.

And palladium – I already mentioned it was a monster move; the 5th largest weekly move on record. Notice the close right at the highs. That’s not a “peace is coming soon” indicator.

Copper broke out to a new all-time closing high on Friday also.

And here is the 10-year treasury. Look at the -27 bp drop, and that bearish reversal candle. What’s that about? Rumor has it, the Fed won’t need to raise rates, what with all the chaos from “war with Russia!” going on. That, or, the increase will be just a one-time 25 bp increase March 15. That’s the theory anyway – money racing back into bonds due to the Fed hinting at deciding not to raise rates much at all. Unlike their position from two weeks ago.

Isn’t war awesome? “Don’t raise rates in mid-stream.”

Finally, risk assets – equities. My model sees a moderate downtrend for equities. And I have to agree. The sector map was strongly bearish: financials [-5.02%] and tech [-3.07%] led the market lower, while energy [+8.44%], utilities [+4.67%] and REITs [+1.74%] moved higher. This is a picture-perfect bearish sector map. Minus the energy bit. It was a large sector rotation under the cover of a mild decline in SPX.

So, will the Grandpa-Handler release of oil from our one-time-use SPR rescue us from the massive oil shortage? This week the release was 2.4 m barrels, or about 337 kbbl/day. You can see the straight-line decline in the SPR. How and when will we ever refill it? Doesn’t matter! Must Save Ukraine! Because – Democracy!

So, in context, just what contribution does this make to US oil production? Well, the US produces 11.6 mbpd, and 337k bbl/day released from the SPR ends up being about 2.9% of US field production. So, while we’re spending our “emergency seed corn” from the SPR, it just barely moves the needle in terms of US oil production (and consumption). Let’s hope this isn’t a Very Long War.

I wanted to pile on a little bit about sovereign debt and the reason behind the debt default that Ed Dowd, and Martin Armstrong both believe is impending. This chart is a bit hard to sort through, but it’s worth it. Black line = effective per capita annual interest payment on TCMDO (total credit market debt obligations). That’s the 5-year treasury (1.6%) x TCMDO (85 trillion) / US population (334 million). That yields a per-capita debt burden of $254,898 x 1.6% 5-year rate = per-capita interest payment of $4088/year.

What would our per-capita payment be if the 5-year was around 6%? $255k x 6% = $15,293. Per year. Think we (in aggregate) can pay that? No way. A default is the only way out. Either via inflation, or – via actual default.

Note that the 5-year rate (in red) is near all-time lows. That’s (roughly speaking) why Ed Dowd and Martin Armstrong see some sort of default in the near future. Is that why COVID happened? Or was COVID adapted for this reason? Is a “debt default” at the core of “you’ll own nothing – and you’ll be happy!”

Right. So back at the “weekly price” level, what’s the net-net of all this week’s fuss? Price moves say: traders were very concerned going into the weekend. All the “Russia War trade” commodities closed at or near their highs for the week. That’s not a positive sign. I’d love for things to be different, but that’s not what the tea leaves are telling us. Especially crude, and palladium. The well-connected banksters are telling us that – best as they know – peace is not gonna break out this weekend.

Prices generally lead, and the headlines follow.

And Now, The News That Caught My Eye

My interpretation of seven key takeaways from Biden’s 2022 State of the Union speech:

  1. US = Democracy, Russia = Autocracy
  2. Fund the police! Secure the border! At the same time – convert all the illegals into citizens, because – the Oligarchy really needs cheap labor!
  3. We’re getting our oil from the SPR, and, if you love democracy, you Plebes will willingly pay more for gas. Democracy!
  4. Build Back Better => “Building a Better America” => “print-and-spend a ton of money to ‘lower inflation’.”
  5. COVID is behind us. Mask-free America. Yay!
  6. SOTU word count: jobs (12+), inflation (6), prices (10), pandemic (8), covid19 (12), UKRAINE (20), democrats-and-republicans (3), Putin (12). And – ever so briefly – China (2). For some reason, the Biden-Handlers just never seem to talk much about China. “10 held by H for the Big Guy”.
  7. Everyone wore a little Ukraine flag. Uni-party pivot attempt complete.

White House Says Biden Will Veto Bill Ending COVID-19 National Emergency If Passed


Even though COVID is over, don’t take away my Emergency! — kiss-kiss, The Biden-Handlers.

Texas congressman ends reelection bid over affair with former ‘ISIS bride’ 


First elected to Congress in 2018, Taylor has been criticized by some Republicans for rejecting former President Donald Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen and for voting to certify Joe Biden’s presidential win, The Dallas Morning News reported.

A Team Red member is leaving too. Note: Taylor voted for the “Jan. 6” committee. My guess: they had a control file on him due to his “ISIS Bride” affair. Much like VAERS and vaccine injury, I think this report is a “tip of the iceberg” story. What’s the URF for elected-official compromise? Factor of 300? More?

Republicans, Democrats slam Lindsey Graham after he calls for Putin’s assassination


Twitter did not immediately respond when asked if Graham’s tweets violated any company policies for attempting to incite violence.

I wonder how TWTR feels about talk of pies-in-the-face for evil Corporate Overlords? Something tells me that’s a violation of their ever-so-flexible “Terms of Service.”

The WEF-EU Army:

Emmanuel Macron steps up EU army plan to deter Russian threat


On Tuesday, Ursula von der Leyen, the [unelected] president of the European Commission, said EU defense policy had moved forward more in “the last six days than in the last six years.”

“If Putin was seeking to weaken the EU, to divide NATO,” she said, “he has achieved the exact opposite.”

Ms von der Leyen has called for European defense to “step up to the next level” after the fall of Afghanistan and now the war in Ukraine.


Germany Mulls Reviving Draft To Beef Up Military Amid War In Ukraine

Compulsory military service would help “promote public spirit,” he said, also calling for careers in the Bundeswehr to be made more attractive to young people.


Putin denies Russia bombing Ukrainian cities


Putin “confirmed that Russia is open to dialogue with the Ukrainian side, as well as with everyone who wants peace in Ukraine. But under the condition that all Russian demands are met,” the Kremlin said.

These include the neutral and non-nuclear status of Ukraine, its “denazification”, recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and of the “sovereignty” of separatist territories in eastern Ukraine.

The next meeting of delegations from Russia and Ukraine is expected during the weekend, according to one of Kyiv’s negotiators.

More meetings this weekend. I don’t think it’s time for peace just yet. Sorry Ukraine citizens, you’ll have to deal with being shot and killed for a little while longer. Leader Schwab (via WEF member von der Leyen) needs his EU Army. Just…two more weeks to slow the spread. Or flatten the curve. Or construct the Army. Or whatever. The Plebes are always the ones that pay.

German Plebe – meet Russian Plebe. The more things change…

Scott Ritter: Putin is looking for a “Great Reset” with NATO vis Ukraine and NATO expansion.

Putin: Crazy Like a Fox


Here’s the punchline — the likelihood that Europe balks at a resumption of the Cold War is high. And when it does, Russia will be able to exchange the withdrawal of its forces from Belarus and Ukraine in return for its demands regarding NATO’s return to the 1997 boundaries.

Some of you may remember Scott Ritter as the UN weapons inspector, who said – pre-invasion – that there were no WMD in Iraq. He paid – much later – for his honesty.

What do I mean by that? I did a duck-duck-go search, looking to fact-check my (above) comment. The first hit:

So, Scott Ritter: “He is puppet of Russian propoganda machine” [sic]. Of course, the last part of the sentence isn’t anywhere on the wiki page. But this was the very first hit on the DDG search. I checked on bing (normal), startpage (normal), google (hit #2 was: “Scott Ritter paroled in online sex case; Scott Ritter, the former United Nations weapons inspector who was arrested and imprisoned for unlawful contact with a minor…”).

Scott Ritter’s CV wiki entry has some more on-point material about his professional experience.

Google’s attempt to hose him, along with DDG, suggests he’s a threat to the narrative. It also suggests DDG is now on Team Oligarchy.

One set of “Going to Hot War” Indicators (h/t via Ilargi at automatic earth):

Echoes of 2003


When every news channel, newspaper, radio station, and mainstream blog is going full MOCKINGBIRD, I get worried, so here are some of my short-term predictions:

  • Expect some cyber-attack or major homeland event that will cover for the stock market’s inevitable crash while simultaneously providing a stand in for the Gulf of Tonkin incident.
  • A shift in messaging from “Ukraine is holding them back!” to “Ukraine is F’d unless we do something.”
  • A congressional or UN testimony from a vaguely eastern European female child about the horrors of war.

If the goal is to go to a hot war (“no fly zone”), then a switch of news focus to “Russian Success + Babies in Incubators” seems plausible, along with a “cyber false flag” attack on the US homeland. If we see the MSM transition to this narrative, then it’s probably time to really batten down the hatches. And maybe get a radiation detector.

Russia may be moving towards gold-backing the Ruble:

The Ministry of Finance supported the abolition of VAT on gold bullion for individuals


Russia’s debt/GDP ratio is about 17%, which is incredibly low.

So, the scenario:

  • Russia gold-backs the Ruble
  • Russia prices oil, and palladium, and natural gas – in gold. You want oil? You pay in gold.

This would certainly piss off the Banking Cartel. Nothing like adding more fuel to a burning fire. Gold (Euros) did extremely well this week – a new all-time high. Related? Maybe. Gold might very well go nuts if Russia actually declares this, vs quietly just eliminating the VAT for gold.

Epoch Times continuing COVID coverage – it is now deadly serious:

Florida to Allow Doctors to Use Off-Label Drugs for Early Treatment of COVID-19



How to Detox Spike Protein After COVID or Vaccine



The Truth Is Coming Out About COVID Deaths


Hospitals receive payments for testing every patient for COVID, every COVID diagnosis and every “COVID death” as well as any time they use Remdesivir and mechanical ventilation.

Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Goes Into Liver Cells and Is Converted to DNA: Study


This is the first time that researchers have shown in vitro or inside a petri dish how an mRNA vaccine is converted into DNA on a human liver cell line, and is what health experts and fact-checkers said for over a year couldn’t occur.

Dr. Peter McCullough, an internist, cardiologist, and epidemiologist, wrote on Twitter that the Swedish study’s findings have “enormous implications of permanent chromosomal change and long-term constitutive spike synthesis driving the pathogenesis of a whole new genre of chronic disease.”

New York City’s Vaccine Passports, School Mask Mandate Ending Monday: Mayor


So, what’s the reach of The Epoch Times?

Similar Web lays it out for us:

Newsom unveils plan to address mental health and homelessness via California courts


The governor unveiled a new framework on Thursday called CARE Court, which aims to connect a person struggling with mental illness with a court-ordered CARE plan. Each plan could be ordered for up to 12 months and extended an additional 12 months if needed. It would be managed by a care team in the community and include interventions and support services, including medication and a housing plan.

The framework specifically focuses on individuals on the schizophrenia spectrum or those with other psychotic disorders – who may also engage in substance use – and “lack medical decision-making capacity,” according to the governor’s office.

So, if Built-Back-Better California imagines that a citizen is crazy (let’s say the citizen is a doctor prescribing Ivermectin for COVID19), a judge can toss the “mentally ill” citizen into a rubber room (“a housing plan”) for 24-months. Medication included.

Dr. Malone, natural vs synthetic mRNA:

On the Vaccine Frontlines; More safety issues, fraud and lack of efficacy continues to haunt the Feds:


  • The mRNA in these genetic vaccines are not degrading rapidly once inside cells and that the Moderna vaccine continues to produce protein up until 12 days after transfection in this in-vitro model.
  • Natural mRNA degrades usually within 45 minutes and no longer than a few hours. That this synthetic mRNA is not degrading rapidly is extremely worrying. Particularly as we also know that the synthetic mRNA is immunosuppressive.
  • Having synthetic mRNA migrate to regions of the body and continue producing protein is not normal.
  • Synthetic mRNA, which is producing spike protein can be found for at least two months after inoculation in lymph node germinal centers.Takeaway: synthetic mRNA doesn’t degrade rapidly, we don’t really know what all the particles do, and they are immuno-suppressive.

Takeaway: synthetic mRNA doesn’t degrade rapidly, we don’t really know what all the particles do, and they are immuno-suppressive.

Some studies:

COVID Infects Penis, Testicles and Prostate – Causes Pain, Erectile Dysfunction, Reduced Sperm Count



New Data Shows Pfizer Vax Is Almost Useless in Preventing COVID Infection in Kids Age 5 to 11



CHD Says Pfizer and FDA Dropped Data Bombshell on COVID Vaccine Consumers


CDC director makes startling admissions about pandemic response


But she emphasized that that there are “so many other things we are counting that don’t make the headlines,” such as “opioid deaths, mental health challenges,” cancer screenings, deferred elective surgeries.

“We’re not telling that as much. I think we will be telling that in the future.”

How will CDC-Rachael explain all the fraud, I wonder? I really don’t think she’s up to it.

Exclusive: The federal government paid hundreds of media companies to advertise the COVID-19 vaccines while those same outlets provided positive coverage of the vaccines


Hundreds of news organizations were paid by the federal government to advertise for the vaccines as part of a “comprehensive media campaign,” according to documents TheBlaze obtained from the Department of Health and Human Services. The Biden administration purchased ads on TV, radio, in print, and on social media to build vaccine confidence, timing this effort with the increasing availability of the vaccines. The government also relied on earned media featuring “influencers” from “communities hit hard by COVID-19” and “experts” like White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci and other academics to be interviewed and promote vaccination in the news.

This explains why Fox = CNN = MSNBC = Newsmax regarding vaccines, and “vaccine hesitancy.” Appallingly, the near-complete compromise of our own media, which has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands, was paid for by You and Me.

An ask from Dr. Robert Malone


Please help us to crowdsource review of these Pfizer documents! As you read the various documents, please comment and include reference to the document in question. This is one of the most productive things that you could do to help at this point. On behalf of myself and many others, thank you in advance.

The Pfizer Documents


And now, a really sad story. Doctor Science has vanished from sight! This really is a meme now.

Note: he hasn’t actually vanished – but his TV appearances are way, way down.