Consumer Economy
- Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) 159.5M +50K (+0.03% m/m) (prior +0.04% m/m)
- Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER) 307.3B -6.88B (-2.19% m/m) (prior +0.64% m/m)
- Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES) 15.59M +30K (+1.96% m/m) (prior -6.07% m/m)
Durable Goods (Orders) had a slight decline, but remain relatively high, which predicts “decent outcomes” for next month.
While Auto/Light Truck sales did fine, those economy-predicting heavy truck sales inched lower – a new 5-year low, last seen two months after “15 days to Slow the Spread.” That’s recessionary.
Headline payrolls data is “just OK” at +50K – barely expansionary – but, given the likely substantial revisions, this is likely in negative territory. Here’s the “net change m/m” chart for PAYEMS. You can draw the trend line yourself. Even without revisions on those last two entries, this really doesn’t look great at all.
U6 unemployment retreated slightly (-0.30%), and so did the “Working Part Time (only part-time work is available)” series, which came in very recessionary last update. PTW still looks pretty ugly, but less ugly this month.
With a Disability
- CNP (LNU00074597) 36.199M -439K -1.20%
- CLF (LNU01074597) 9.168M -424K -4.42%
- EMP (LNU02074597) 8.460M -464K -5.20%
- NILF (LNU05074597) 27.030M -16K -0.06%
This month saw a large decline in the employed With a Disability – almost half a million working people were un-disabled this month, which reverses about half of the increase seen last month. That’s good news – as long as it was due to healing rather than disability turning to death.
Native/Foreign Born
The job gains this month were all about the “foreign-born”, while the native-born saw a large net loss.
- Native-Born Employed (LNU02073413) 132.6M -656K -0.49%
- Foreign-Born Employed (LNU02073395) 31.1M 310K +1.01%
Here’s another oddity. The large increase in December foreign-born employed is a very abnormal event for this particular month. Here are the December changes over the last 10 years.
by thc0655 
