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Energy
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- Why the US' antagonistic approach towards Russia is likely to backfire big time, in both the near and long term
- How, by definition, the West has already initiated economic warfare against Russia
- Why things will get very bad in a hurry for the West if Russia reacts by re-directing its energy exports
- And how things could get much worse indeed, for everyone, if this conflict erupts into a military confrontation
If you have not yet read Warning: The Ukraine Is At A Flashpoint, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Poking The Bear
And that finally brings us to Russia, which has a long and complicated history with Ukraine. There are many Russian speaking people in the Ukraine, for whom Russia feels somewhat protective, as perhaps US citizens in Canada or Mexico might expect from the US.
Further, Russia quite rightfully feels that it is being systematically surrounded and cornered by the NATO military structure and they might reasonably ask themselves why and for what purpose(s)? There are probably other ways to look at this, but it's certainly reasonable to think that Russia might feel just the tiniest bit provoked, if not threatened, at the West's obvious efforts to get Ukraine to join up with NATO.
Instead of sitting down with Russia to try and hammer things out, the US resorted almost immediately to a series of sanctions targeted at Russian individuals and companies, as well as the Russian stock and bond markets, with the intention of creating economic and financial hardship that would get Russia to leave Ukraine to the west.
Here are a few of the efforts so far…
How This Situation Can Quickly Get Much Worse
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- Why the US' antagonistic approach towards Russia is likely to backfire big time, in both the near and long term
- How, by definition, the West has already initiated economic warfare against Russia
- Why things will get very bad in a hurry for the West if Russia reacts by re-directing its energy exports
- And how things could get much worse indeed, for everyone, if this conflict erupts into a military confrontation
If you have not yet read Warning: The Ukraine Is At A Flashpoint, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Poking The Bear
And that finally brings us to Russia, which has a long and complicated history with Ukraine. There are many Russian speaking people in the Ukraine, for whom Russia feels somewhat protective, as perhaps US citizens in Canada or Mexico might expect from the US.
Further, Russia quite rightfully feels that it is being systematically surrounded and cornered by the NATO military structure and they might reasonably ask themselves why and for what purpose(s)? There are probably other ways to look at this, but it's certainly reasonable to think that Russia might feel just the tiniest bit provoked, if not threatened, at the West's obvious efforts to get Ukraine to join up with NATO.
Instead of sitting down with Russia to try and hammer things out, the US resorted almost immediately to a series of sanctions targeted at Russian individuals and companies, as well as the Russian stock and bond markets, with the intention of creating economic and financial hardship that would get Russia to leave Ukraine to the west.
Here are a few of the efforts so far…
by
Gregor Macdonald
Executive Summary
- Anemic employment & wages growth depresses the odds of near-term interest rate hikes
- Why energy costs increases are experiencing a lull, keeping inflation lower than many expected
- The demographic arguments for deflation
- Why the US is becoming more vulnerable to a repricing of natural gas — vs oil — in the coming decade
If you have not yet read Part I: When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The most recent US jobs report was once again a disappointment, despite the headline number of 192,000 jobs created. Over the past two years, the economy has reliably created about 150,000 jobs per month. This has been just enough to keep up with population growth, but alas, not enough to put the long-term unemployed back to work. The concerning data in the report came in the details of the jobs created: as usual–and this has been a trend for several years now–mostly in the lower wage sectors. A few wrap-up tweets from Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital summed up the facts rather nicely:
#BLS OK, here’s the result: 49.21% of all jobs created in March were in the low wage sectors – reverting to situation we saw last year (1/2)
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
#BLS …and, in March, hourly wages FELL…down one penny overall and down 2 cents for production and non-supervisory workers. NOT GOOD.
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
Other notable observations from recent trends in US jobs reports include the fact that job creation in 2013 was no higher than in 2012. Not exactly an encouraging trend for those who would be looking for inflation risk, or strong growth in 2014.
But perhaps worst of all has been the number of workers leaving the workforce. Part of this can be explained, of course, by demographic retirements. It’s no secret that the US has an aging population, and there’s a bulge of retiring workers that will admittedly create some gaps in the labor market over the next decade. But the large numbers of workers exiting the workforce is also explained by discouraged workers, and that unemployment benefits for many have started running out.
What many in the public do not understand, is that workers taking unemployment checks are counted as active seekers of employment. They are added to the composition of the workforce, and when they continue to take unemployment checks but do not find work, they serve to keep the unemployment rate elevated. But when unemployment benefits expire, and workers leave the workforce, the unemployment rate may…
Why Demand Will Become Even More Scarce
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldExecutive Summary
- Anemic employment & wages growth depresses the odds of near-term interest rate hikes
- Why energy costs increases are experiencing a lull, keeping inflation lower than many expected
- The demographic arguments for deflation
- Why the US is becoming more vulnerable to a repricing of natural gas — vs oil — in the coming decade
If you have not yet read Part I: When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The most recent US jobs report was once again a disappointment, despite the headline number of 192,000 jobs created. Over the past two years, the economy has reliably created about 150,000 jobs per month. This has been just enough to keep up with population growth, but alas, not enough to put the long-term unemployed back to work. The concerning data in the report came in the details of the jobs created: as usual–and this has been a trend for several years now–mostly in the lower wage sectors. A few wrap-up tweets from Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital summed up the facts rather nicely:
#BLS OK, here’s the result: 49.21% of all jobs created in March were in the low wage sectors – reverting to situation we saw last year (1/2)
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
#BLS …and, in March, hourly wages FELL…down one penny overall and down 2 cents for production and non-supervisory workers. NOT GOOD.
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
Other notable observations from recent trends in US jobs reports include the fact that job creation in 2013 was no higher than in 2012. Not exactly an encouraging trend for those who would be looking for inflation risk, or strong growth in 2014.
But perhaps worst of all has been the number of workers leaving the workforce. Part of this can be explained, of course, by demographic retirements. It’s no secret that the US has an aging population, and there’s a bulge of retiring workers that will admittedly create some gaps in the labor market over the next decade. But the large numbers of workers exiting the workforce is also explained by discouraged workers, and that unemployment benefits for many have started running out.
What many in the public do not understand, is that workers taking unemployment checks are counted as active seekers of employment. They are added to the composition of the workforce, and when they continue to take unemployment checks but do not find work, they serve to keep the unemployment rate elevated. But when unemployment benefits expire, and workers leave the workforce, the unemployment rate may…
by
Chris Martenson
Everybody, soon or late, sits down to a banquet of consequences.
~ Robert Louis Stevenson
"Growth is the problem; not the solution" says Ugo Bardi, Professor of Physical Chemistry at Italy's University of Florence and author of the recent book Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth is Plundering the Planet.
In this week's podcast, Professor Bardi and Chris discuss resource depletion and its growing impact on geopolitical events and the world economy.
Ugo Bardi: The Banquet of Consequences
by Chris MartensonEverybody, soon or late, sits down to a banquet of consequences.
~ Robert Louis Stevenson
"Growth is the problem; not the solution" says Ugo Bardi, Professor of Physical Chemistry at Italy's University of Florence and author of the recent book Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth is Plundering the Planet.
In this week's podcast, Professor Bardi and Chris discuss resource depletion and its growing impact on geopolitical events and the world economy.
by
Chris Martenson
Off the Cuff: Preparing To Ride Camels
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
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