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Why “Peak Oil” Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
by Chris Martenson

This guest post by Erik Townsend really elevates the discussion around the issue of investing in oil and energy given the realities involved in what Peak Oil truly implies politically and economically.  Few in the investing community have really fully internalized the magnitude of the predicament, but Erik has.

If we had a post rating system, this would receive the very highest mark.


By Erik Townsend ∙ May 3, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Although there’s more than 100 years’ supply of crude oil left in the ground, the resources that are “cheap and easy” to extract have for the most part already been discovered.
  • By 2012 the decline of production output from conventional sources coupled with much higher extraction cost of unconventional sources will lead to peak cheap oil, a phenomenon that will put extreme upward pressure on oil prices.
  • To a limited extent, a strong case exists for speculation on a moderate increase in petroleum prices.
  • Those who anticipate extraordinarily high prices (upwards of $300/bbl) have failed to consider what George Soros calls reflexivity. The global economy simply cannot afford such prices, and the rules will be changed before they are reached.
  • The future is likely to bring price controls, government intervention in the petroleum supply chain, and nationalization of oil resources.
  • The oil industry will face many unanticipated challenges during this period, capping the price appreciation potential of both commodity and equity plays in the oil industry.
  • Wise investors will focus on the initial price run-up expected to occur before large-scale government intervention ensues.

Why “Peak Oil” Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
by Chris Martenson

This guest post by Erik Townsend really elevates the discussion around the issue of investing in oil and energy given the realities involved in what Peak Oil truly implies politically and economically.  Few in the investing community have really fully internalized the magnitude of the predicament, but Erik has.

If we had a post rating system, this would receive the very highest mark.


By Erik Townsend ∙ May 3, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Although there’s more than 100 years’ supply of crude oil left in the ground, the resources that are “cheap and easy” to extract have for the most part already been discovered.
  • By 2012 the decline of production output from conventional sources coupled with much higher extraction cost of unconventional sources will lead to peak cheap oil, a phenomenon that will put extreme upward pressure on oil prices.
  • To a limited extent, a strong case exists for speculation on a moderate increase in petroleum prices.
  • Those who anticipate extraordinarily high prices (upwards of $300/bbl) have failed to consider what George Soros calls reflexivity. The global economy simply cannot afford such prices, and the rules will be changed before they are reached.
  • The future is likely to bring price controls, government intervention in the petroleum supply chain, and nationalization of oil resources.
  • The oil industry will face many unanticipated challenges during this period, capping the price appreciation potential of both commodity and equity plays in the oil industry.
  • Wise investors will focus on the initial price run-up expected to occur before large-scale government intervention ensues.

China Follow-Up, Energy, and the Future
by Chris Martenson

In the most recent Martenson Report, I laid the foundation for understanding that China may be on an aggressive policy of resource acquisition tuned to the reality of depletion.

Here are a couple of very interesting ideas and news items that have come out.  The first is that the US government is now publicly concerned that China may be trying to “lock up” oil reserves.  I find this somewhat humorous because this message is conveyed without the slightest trace of irony.  This, of course, has been the US’s own policy for a very long time.

China Follow-Up, Energy, and the Future
by Chris Martenson

In the most recent Martenson Report, I laid the foundation for understanding that China may be on an aggressive policy of resource acquisition tuned to the reality of depletion.

Here are a couple of very interesting ideas and news items that have come out.  The first is that the US government is now publicly concerned that China may be trying to “lock up” oil reserves.  I find this somewhat humorous because this message is conveyed without the slightest trace of irony.  This, of course, has been the US’s own policy for a very long time.

Chart of the Day – US Oil Imports
by Chris Martenson

This is your chart of the day.  If anything can explain exactly the sort of difficulties our economy is facing, this is it.

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<p>(<a href=Source)

All economic growth requires energy.  This decline in energy use is the first such decline in the entire history of our energy records.  Sure, there have been a couple of minor dips (back in the 1970’s), but nothing quite like this.

Chart of the Day – US Oil Imports
by Chris Martenson

This is your chart of the day.  If anything can explain exactly the sort of difficulties our economy is facing, this is it.

 /></p>
<p>(<a href=Source)

All economic growth requires energy.  This decline in energy use is the first such decline in the entire history of our energy records.  Sure, there have been a couple of minor dips (back in the 1970’s), but nothing quite like this.

Oil, More and Less
by Chris Martenson

Another post of interest from the In Session archives:

Oil is a tale of more and less.

Here’s the more:

Saudi Arabia has started production from its giant Khurais oilfield, the largest ever single addition to global oil supplies, Saudi Aramco’s top executive said in remarks broadcast on Wednesday. 

Oil, More and Less
by Chris Martenson

Another post of interest from the In Session archives:

Oil is a tale of more and less.

Here’s the more:

Saudi Arabia has started production from its giant Khurais oilfield, the largest ever single addition to global oil supplies, Saudi Aramco’s top executive said in remarks broadcast on Wednesday. 

Total 547 items