Energy
Executive Summary
- Why this Iraq crisis comes at a very vulnerable time for world oil markets
- The three mostly likely outcomes to the current crisis, and the resulting oil price of each
- ISIS remains contained from here
- ISIS takes Bagdad and points south
- A more widespread Middle East conflict erupts
- The growing risk to the global economy & financial markets
- What concerned individuals should do now
If you have not yet read Iraq Breaks Down, Oil Surges, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The biggest risk to the world economy from the developing Iraq situation is that the price of oil could spike higher, killing the sputtering economic 'recovery' and triggering both a new global Recession and financial crisis.
Now, here's the truly interesting part of where we are in this story.
The IEA (International Energy Agency) has recently called for OPEC to deliver more oil by year end, which I wrote about here, and especially called upon Saudi Arabia to do so because world oil supplies are incredibly tight right now. OPEC is the only entity in the world with any identifiable 'swing production', as all of the non-OPEC nations are alrady producing at maximum capacity. At least, the hope is that OPEC has additional production capacity.
In the prior piece mentioned, I wrote that of the 12 OPEC members, 8 are in a sustained decline trend for a variety of geological or political reasons. Only 4 are not. Only 1 actually has shown a significant increase in oil production over the past few years — and that was Iraq, which had added 1.5 mbd recently:
Here's what's at risk if the ISIS rebels push further south:
(Source)
The IEA is already calling on OPEC to deliver 1.2 mbd more by year end 2014. If Iraq's production is lost, then we can just add that amount to the 'needed total' that the IEA has requested be brought on line by Saudi Arabia, an amount that I already sincerely doubt they can meet. If even a portion of Iraq's production is lost, then we can just kiss $110 barrel good-bye and say hello to $150 per barrel oil. War is messy and it's never easy to predict what might happen, but we'd be foolish to not consider what might happen here.
The true game-changer for the world will come when…
Oil at Risk
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- Why this Iraq crisis comes at a very vulnerable time for world oil markets
- The three mostly likely outcomes to the current crisis, and the resulting oil price of each
- ISIS remains contained from here
- ISIS takes Bagdad and points south
- A more widespread Middle East conflict erupts
- The growing risk to the global economy & financial markets
- What concerned individuals should do now
If you have not yet read Iraq Breaks Down, Oil Surges, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The biggest risk to the world economy from the developing Iraq situation is that the price of oil could spike higher, killing the sputtering economic 'recovery' and triggering both a new global Recession and financial crisis.
Now, here's the truly interesting part of where we are in this story.
The IEA (International Energy Agency) has recently called for OPEC to deliver more oil by year end, which I wrote about here, and especially called upon Saudi Arabia to do so because world oil supplies are incredibly tight right now. OPEC is the only entity in the world with any identifiable 'swing production', as all of the non-OPEC nations are alrady producing at maximum capacity. At least, the hope is that OPEC has additional production capacity.
In the prior piece mentioned, I wrote that of the 12 OPEC members, 8 are in a sustained decline trend for a variety of geological or political reasons. Only 4 are not. Only 1 actually has shown a significant increase in oil production over the past few years — and that was Iraq, which had added 1.5 mbd recently:
Here's what's at risk if the ISIS rebels push further south:
(Source)
The IEA is already calling on OPEC to deliver 1.2 mbd more by year end 2014. If Iraq's production is lost, then we can just add that amount to the 'needed total' that the IEA has requested be brought on line by Saudi Arabia, an amount that I already sincerely doubt they can meet. If even a portion of Iraq's production is lost, then we can just kiss $110 barrel good-bye and say hello to $150 per barrel oil. War is messy and it's never easy to predict what might happen, but we'd be foolish to not consider what might happen here.
The true game-changer for the world will come when…
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) took the historically unprecedented step of lowering certain of its interest rates below 0%. In a report to our premium subscribers immediately following the announcement, Chris likened the move to the policy equivalent of dropping a neutron bomb.
In the days following, despite the ECB attempting to clarify its stance further, many questions still linger; most notably: What exactly will the implications of this negative interest rate (NIRP) policy be?
Alasdair Macleod: All You Need To Know About Negative Interest Rates
by Adam TaggartOn Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) took the historically unprecedented step of lowering certain of its interest rates below 0%. In a report to our premium subscribers immediately following the announcement, Chris likened the move to the policy equivalent of dropping a neutron bomb.
In the days following, despite the ECB attempting to clarify its stance further, many questions still linger; most notably: What exactly will the implications of this negative interest rate (NIRP) policy be?
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Solar Joos Orange Portable Solar Battery & Charger
by JWSpecial Bonus for PeakProsperity.com Readers
We are pleased to announce that PrepareDirect is offering PeakProsperity.com members a special bonus with each Solar Joos Orange Portable Solar Battery & Charger ordered – A bonus reflector kit – a $24.95 value. This reflector can improve charge times up to 40%! The perfect add-on to this simple solar charger system.
The US shale oil "miracle" has about as much believability left as Jimmy Swaggart. Just today, we learned that the EIA has placed a hefty downward revision on its estimate of the amount of recoverable oil in the #1 shale reserve in the US, the Monterey in California.
As recently as yesterday, the much-publicized Monterey formation accounted for nearly two-thirds of all technically-recoverable US shale oil resources.
But by this morning? The EIA now estimates these reserves to be 96% lower than it previously claimed.
The US Shale Oil Miracle Disappears
by Chris MartensonThe US shale oil "miracle" has about as much believability left as Jimmy Swaggart. Just today, we learned that the EIA has placed a hefty downward revision on its estimate of the amount of recoverable oil in the #1 shale reserve in the US, the Monterey in California.
As recently as yesterday, the much-publicized Monterey formation accounted for nearly two-thirds of all technically-recoverable US shale oil resources.
But by this morning? The EIA now estimates these reserves to be 96% lower than it previously claimed.
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