Economy
Executive Summary
- Why the Fed may no be able to raise rates from here
- Will the Fed go to negative interest rates instead?
- Why the next recession will limit the Fed's options greatly
- Why it may well be too late for the Fed at this point to act
If you have not yet read Part 1: Has The Fed Already Lost? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
What If The Fed Isn't Actually Able To Raise Rates From Here?
Let’s start with a look at the history of the Federal Funds rate (the shortest maturity interest rate the Fed directly controls). Alongside the historical rhythm of the Funds rate are official US recession periods in the shaded blue bars.
Chart Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
Of course there is one striking and completely consistent historical commonality in the behavior of the Funds rate over time. The Fed has lowered the Federal Funds rate in every recession since 1954 at least. There are no exceptions. You can see the punchline coming, can’t you? Just how does one lower interest rates from zero to stimulate a potential slowdown in the economy?
Of course in the banking system…
The Future Of Interest Rates
PREVIEW by Brian PrettiExecutive Summary
- Why the Fed may no be able to raise rates from here
- Will the Fed go to negative interest rates instead?
- Why the next recession will limit the Fed's options greatly
- Why it may well be too late for the Fed at this point to act
If you have not yet read Part 1: Has The Fed Already Lost? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
What If The Fed Isn't Actually Able To Raise Rates From Here?
Let’s start with a look at the history of the Federal Funds rate (the shortest maturity interest rate the Fed directly controls). Alongside the historical rhythm of the Funds rate are official US recession periods in the shaded blue bars.
Chart Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
Of course there is one striking and completely consistent historical commonality in the behavior of the Funds rate over time. The Fed has lowered the Federal Funds rate in every recession since 1954 at least. There are no exceptions. You can see the punchline coming, can’t you? Just how does one lower interest rates from zero to stimulate a potential slowdown in the economy?
Of course in the banking system…
Executive Summary
- Money functions as a store of value and a means of exchange, but it's possible to have 2 forms (or more) of money simultaneously serving as each
- Having complementary forms of money can provide more resilience to a monetary system – history has a number of examples of this
- A key success factor of such systems is that the forms of money are NOT issues and controlled by the State
- Which new forms of money will arise when the current State fiat money regimes fail
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Fatal Flaw Of Centrally-Issued Money available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Separating Money’s Two Functions
Money has two basic functions: it is a store of value (that is, it holds its purchasing power long after you obtain it in trade for goods and services) and it is a means of exchange: there has to be enough in circulation to grease the exchange of goods and services.
Though we are accustomed to one form of money playing both of these roles, there is no reason why each function can’t be served by separate kinds of money—that is, one for exchange and one as a store of value.
This is precisely what we find in the historical record, where bills of exchange, letters of credit (in essence, credit money), paper chits from retailers and other ephemeral means of exchange greased trade while gold and silver or other scarce materials served as stores of value.
As anthropologist David Graeber established in his book Debt: The First 5,000 Years, money arose not from barter—the usual assumption—but from the rise of credit-based exchange and debt recorded on clay tablets, notched sticks or parchment.
In Graeber’s view, the key feature of money used for exchange is that it always has an end buyer. The intrinsically worthless chit issued by a retailer can serve as money through dozens of transactions because everyone trusts that the issuer—the retailer—will accept the chit as being worth an established amount of goods, i.e. purchasing power.
If Joe’s Market issues a chit that can be traded for a can of beans, you and I can exchange that chit as payment of debt or purchase of some other good or service because we know we can always exchange the chit for a can of beans. The chit serves as money.
When gold and silver were scarce in…
The Future of Money
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- Money functions as a store of value and a means of exchange, but it's possible to have 2 forms (or more) of money simultaneously serving as each
- Having complementary forms of money can provide more resilience to a monetary system – history has a number of examples of this
- A key success factor of such systems is that the forms of money are NOT issues and controlled by the State
- Which new forms of money will arise when the current State fiat money regimes fail
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Fatal Flaw Of Centrally-Issued Money available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Separating Money’s Two Functions
Money has two basic functions: it is a store of value (that is, it holds its purchasing power long after you obtain it in trade for goods and services) and it is a means of exchange: there has to be enough in circulation to grease the exchange of goods and services.
Though we are accustomed to one form of money playing both of these roles, there is no reason why each function can’t be served by separate kinds of money—that is, one for exchange and one as a store of value.
This is precisely what we find in the historical record, where bills of exchange, letters of credit (in essence, credit money), paper chits from retailers and other ephemeral means of exchange greased trade while gold and silver or other scarce materials served as stores of value.
As anthropologist David Graeber established in his book Debt: The First 5,000 Years, money arose not from barter—the usual assumption—but from the rise of credit-based exchange and debt recorded on clay tablets, notched sticks or parchment.
In Graeber’s view, the key feature of money used for exchange is that it always has an end buyer. The intrinsically worthless chit issued by a retailer can serve as money through dozens of transactions because everyone trusts that the issuer—the retailer—will accept the chit as being worth an established amount of goods, i.e. purchasing power.
If Joe’s Market issues a chit that can be traded for a can of beans, you and I can exchange that chit as payment of debt or purchase of some other good or service because we know we can always exchange the chit for a can of beans. The chit serves as money.
When gold and silver were scarce in…
I must confess to a deep-seated anger at just how insultingly stupid the world has become. As a sufferer of crisis fatigue I can be caught exclaiming You have got to be kidding me!!? several times per day, or perhaps shouting How dumb do they think we are?
Three choice outbursts came last week as I read Bernanke’s new blog and came across statements like this one:
The Fed Is Destroying the World One Saver At A Time
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonI must confess to a deep-seated anger at just how insultingly stupid the world has become. As a sufferer of crisis fatigue I can be caught exclaiming You have got to be kidding me!!? several times per day, or perhaps shouting How dumb do they think we are?
Three choice outbursts came last week as I read Bernanke’s new blog and came across statements like this one:
Richard Duncan, author of The Dollar Crisis and The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy, isn't mincing words about the risks he sees ahead for the world economy.
Essentially, he sees the past 50 years of economic prosperity fueled by globalization and easy credit in serious danger of being unwound, as the doomed monetary policies currently being pursued by the word's central banks result in a massive multi-decade depression that spans the globe.
Richard Duncan: The Real Risk Of A Coming Multi-Decade Global Depression
by Chris MartensonRichard Duncan, author of The Dollar Crisis and The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy, isn't mincing words about the risks he sees ahead for the world economy.
Essentially, he sees the past 50 years of economic prosperity fueled by globalization and easy credit in serious danger of being unwound, as the doomed monetary policies currently being pursued by the word's central banks result in a massive multi-decade depression that spans the globe.
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