by
Adam Taggart
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Economy
Economy
by
Gregor Macdonald
Executive Summary
- Why oil price vulnerability is growing
- Why the marginal cost of oil is rising higher at an accelerating rate
- Why the marginal cost of oil for non-OPEC regions is now above $90
- The hard math explaining why an increase an output from OPEC will no longer reduce the world price for oil
- The new rules that will govern the price of oil from here
- The alarming growing risk of large-scale war for oil
Part I: OPEC Has Lost the Power to Lower the Price of Oil
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel
An unpleasant megatrend that has affected global oil production the past decade has been the quickly escalating cost of production. However, prices have finally risen high enough to stabilize declines in regions like North America.
This actually makes for a new and emerging vulnerability: the risk that prices fall at some point through levels that remove the new oil supply.
Given that world oil production has been trapped below 74 mbpd since 2005, and that the cost of the marginal barrel keeps rising, this vulnerability is growing.
The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldExecutive Summary
- Why oil price vulnerability is growing
- Why the marginal cost of oil is rising higher at an accelerating rate
- Why the marginal cost of oil for non-OPEC regions is now above $90
- The hard math explaining why an increase an output from OPEC will no longer reduce the world price for oil
- The new rules that will govern the price of oil from here
- The alarming growing risk of large-scale war for oil
Part I: OPEC Has Lost the Power to Lower the Price of Oil
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel
An unpleasant megatrend that has affected global oil production the past decade has been the quickly escalating cost of production. However, prices have finally risen high enough to stabilize declines in regions like North America.
This actually makes for a new and emerging vulnerability: the risk that prices fall at some point through levels that remove the new oil supply.
Given that world oil production has been trapped below 74 mbpd since 2005, and that the cost of the marginal barrel keeps rising, this vulnerability is growing.
by
Adam Taggart
This week we bring back Alasdair Macleod, publisher of FinanceAndEconomics.org, because, as he puts it, "every horror that we discussed last time we spoke is coming about." This is especially scary since our previous conversation with Alasdair was less than three weeks ago…
Today's interview continues building on his excellent synopsis from last month that detailed the origins of the Eurozone crisis. The fundamental shortcomings warned of at the euro's creation in 1997, combined with the excessive sovereign debts run up since then, have finally expressed themselves at a scale too large to be contained any longer.
Today, Alasdair details in depth the huge and serious challenges facing Greece and the major Eurozone countries and the likely impacts of the fast-dwindling options left remaining.
He sees no happy ending to this story, no outcome in which serious pain and permanent behavior change can be avoided. And for those looking for shelter from the unfolding economic storm, he sees few options besides the precious metals (which he believes are severely underpriced at the moment):
Alasdair Macleod: All Roads in Europe Lead to Gold
by Adam TaggartThis week we bring back Alasdair Macleod, publisher of FinanceAndEconomics.org, because, as he puts it, "every horror that we discussed last time we spoke is coming about." This is especially scary since our previous conversation with Alasdair was less than three weeks ago…
Today's interview continues building on his excellent synopsis from last month that detailed the origins of the Eurozone crisis. The fundamental shortcomings warned of at the euro's creation in 1997, combined with the excessive sovereign debts run up since then, have finally expressed themselves at a scale too large to be contained any longer.
Today, Alasdair details in depth the huge and serious challenges facing Greece and the major Eurozone countries and the likely impacts of the fast-dwindling options left remaining.
He sees no happy ending to this story, no outcome in which serious pain and permanent behavior change can be avoided. And for those looking for shelter from the unfolding economic storm, he sees few options besides the precious metals (which he believes are severely underpriced at the moment):
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- Where the gold price is most likely to go from here
- History rhymes: Why today resembles 2008
- How to best deploy your capital once the central banks announce the next round of money printing
- Why prudent actions you can take now are so much more valuable than the options you'll have once the correction is underway
Part I: Get Ready: We’re About To Have Another 2008-Style Crisis
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: What To Do When the Central Banks Blink
Where Gold Goes From Here
While I personally would not part with my gold these days, and certainly not at these prices, I do expect the price of gold to drop going forward.
The reason is that gold has multiple elements contributing to its price, and some of that is attributable to the speculation and rampant liquidity that is sloshing through the system. Various hedge funds and other speculative funds are holding quite a bit of gold, mainly the paper variety, and when they dump that because the tables have turned and/or their liquidity sources have dried up, they will sell that paper gold and the apparent price will go down.
Further, weak hands holding gold via the GLD ETF will be shaken out during a liquidity crisis, putting physical gold back onto the market.
However, it is my strongest contention that this will represent a very nice buying opportunity. Someday, nobody knows when, the central banks will announce another big round of thin-air money printing and that will be a turning point in the price of gold (and many other things, including stocks and commodities).
What To Do When the Central Banks Blink
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- Where the gold price is most likely to go from here
- History rhymes: Why today resembles 2008
- How to best deploy your capital once the central banks announce the next round of money printing
- Why prudent actions you can take now are so much more valuable than the options you'll have once the correction is underway
Part I: Get Ready: We’re About To Have Another 2008-Style Crisis
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: What To Do When the Central Banks Blink
Where Gold Goes From Here
While I personally would not part with my gold these days, and certainly not at these prices, I do expect the price of gold to drop going forward.
The reason is that gold has multiple elements contributing to its price, and some of that is attributable to the speculation and rampant liquidity that is sloshing through the system. Various hedge funds and other speculative funds are holding quite a bit of gold, mainly the paper variety, and when they dump that because the tables have turned and/or their liquidity sources have dried up, they will sell that paper gold and the apparent price will go down.
Further, weak hands holding gold via the GLD ETF will be shaken out during a liquidity crisis, putting physical gold back onto the market.
However, it is my strongest contention that this will represent a very nice buying opportunity. Someday, nobody knows when, the central banks will announce another big round of thin-air money printing and that will be a turning point in the price of gold (and many other things, including stocks and commodities).
by
charleshughsmith
Executive Summary
- How the State supplanted community enterprise with an entitlement-driven economy
- Why the State's entitlement approach is unsustainable, mathematically — and is finally imploding as we watch
- What to expect at this point: more egregious abuse to keep the system working, ultimately triggering serious social unrest
- How self-reliance and local enterprise will emerge as paramount once the current State system collapses
Part I: Acknowledging the Arrival of Peak Government
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: The End of the Free Lunch
In Part I, we examined four key drivers of Central State expansion and how they are now likely entering an era of prolonged contraction.
This historic vast expansion did not occurred in a vacuum; as our social and economic orders are not infinite, the State’s expansion largely came at the expense of community (private society) and the marketplace.
Many observers have noted that the Central State has largely replaced community within the nation’s social order. That is, the Central State now dominates the society and the economy, while community and the marketplace operate beneath its shadow.
Some see this withering of community as occurring off-camera, so to speak, for reasons that had nothing to do with the State. In other words, the decline of community left an opening that has been filled by the State. This view discounts the active encroachment by the expansionist Central State on private society and markets such as housing and equities, which have become State-managed platforms for perception management and private predation.
The End of the Free Lunch
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- How the State supplanted community enterprise with an entitlement-driven economy
- Why the State's entitlement approach is unsustainable, mathematically — and is finally imploding as we watch
- What to expect at this point: more egregious abuse to keep the system working, ultimately triggering serious social unrest
- How self-reliance and local enterprise will emerge as paramount once the current State system collapses
Part I: Acknowledging the Arrival of Peak Government
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: The End of the Free Lunch
In Part I, we examined four key drivers of Central State expansion and how they are now likely entering an era of prolonged contraction.
This historic vast expansion did not occurred in a vacuum; as our social and economic orders are not infinite, the State’s expansion largely came at the expense of community (private society) and the marketplace.
Many observers have noted that the Central State has largely replaced community within the nation’s social order. That is, the Central State now dominates the society and the economy, while community and the marketplace operate beneath its shadow.
Some see this withering of community as occurring off-camera, so to speak, for reasons that had nothing to do with the State. In other words, the decline of community left an opening that has been filled by the State. This view discounts the active encroachment by the expansionist Central State on private society and markets such as housing and equities, which have become State-managed platforms for perception management and private predation.
by
Adam Taggart
by
Adam Taggart
In Part II of Chris’ detailed interview with Alasdair Macleod on the inevitable outcome to the European credit crisis (click here for Part I), the discussion deepens, exploring a number of important topics including:
- What the key risks are at this stage
- What the most likely scenarios are
- Gold ownership and captial controls
- What options concerned individuals should consider
Alasdair Macleod (Part II): How a Collapsing Europe will Cause Asset Revaluations Worldwide
PREVIEW by Adam TaggartIn Part II of Chris’ detailed interview with Alasdair Macleod on the inevitable outcome to the European credit crisis (click here for Part I), the discussion deepens, exploring a number of important topics including:
- What the key risks are at this stage
- What the most likely scenarios are
- Gold ownership and captial controls
- What options concerned individuals should consider
by
Adam Taggart
Alasdair Macleod, publisher of Financeandeconomics.org, sees little room for a happy ending to the worsening European credit crisis.
In this interview, he builds on his excellent synopsis from earlier in the week that detailed how the crisis originated, essentially embedding a fundamental structural shortcoming into the entire Eurozone construct starting back in 1997. This flawed monetary model was exploited for temporal gain, and it worked very well, as long as the pie was expanding and nobody was looking too carefully at the mounting imbalances created as it chugged along beautifully. Everybody was getting rich on their Mediterranean villas going up in price almost daily.
This whole thing was bound to work until, mathematically, it couldn’t work.
Alasdair Macleod: Why the Europe Situation is Certain to Get Worse
by Adam TaggartAlasdair Macleod, publisher of Financeandeconomics.org, sees little room for a happy ending to the worsening European credit crisis.
In this interview, he builds on his excellent synopsis from earlier in the week that detailed how the crisis originated, essentially embedding a fundamental structural shortcoming into the entire Eurozone construct starting back in 1997. This flawed monetary model was exploited for temporal gain, and it worked very well, as long as the pie was expanding and nobody was looking too carefully at the mounting imbalances created as it chugged along beautifully. Everybody was getting rich on their Mediterranean villas going up in price almost daily.
This whole thing was bound to work until, mathematically, it couldn’t work.
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