page-loading-spinner
Home Economy

Economy

by Gregor Macdonald

Few modern economists would, for example, monitor the behaviour of Procter and Gamble, assemble data on the market for steel, or observe the behaviour of traders.  The modern economist is the clinician with no patients, the engineer with no projects. ~ John Kay, from The Map is Not the Territory: An Essay on the State of Economics, October 2011

I’m not quite sure what a depression is. ~ Martin Feldstein, in an interview with Kelly Evans of the Wall Street Journal, October 2011

 align=

A Failure To See the Obvious 

Prior to 2008 it was generally understood that the profession hardly merited its claims of its own predictive utility. So the failure to assign enough risk to such a crisis as befell the developed world in 2008 was, frankly, no surprise. But in the aftermath of the crisis, economics, in its professional form, has revealed itself to be damagingly disconnected from observable reality.

A glaring example of this is how it cannot come to any agreement as to how the debt crisis occurred, and accordingly remains quite confused in its proffered solutions.

It’s Time To Give Up On Mainstream Economics
by Gregor Macdonald

Few modern economists would, for example, monitor the behaviour of Procter and Gamble, assemble data on the market for steel, or observe the behaviour of traders.  The modern economist is the clinician with no patients, the engineer with no projects. ~ John Kay, from The Map is Not the Territory: An Essay on the State of Economics, October 2011

I’m not quite sure what a depression is. ~ Martin Feldstein, in an interview with Kelly Evans of the Wall Street Journal, October 2011

 align=

A Failure To See the Obvious 

Prior to 2008 it was generally understood that the profession hardly merited its claims of its own predictive utility. So the failure to assign enough risk to such a crisis as befell the developed world in 2008 was, frankly, no surprise. But in the aftermath of the crisis, economics, in its professional form, has revealed itself to be damagingly disconnected from observable reality.

A glaring example of this is how it cannot come to any agreement as to how the debt crisis occurred, and accordingly remains quite confused in its proffered solutions.

by Gregor Macdonald

Understanding Where Gold and Silver Go from Here

by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Monday, November 21, 2011

Executive Summary

  • The outlook for precious metals will be heavily influenced by the steps the European Central Bank (ECB) takes in the near future.
  • Understanding the likely price trajectories of the precious metals whether or not central banks resume quantitative easing (QE, a.k.a. money printing)
  • The specific price targets for both gold and silver under the most likely scenarios
  • Underscoring the gravity of our current situation

Part I – The New Price Era of Oil and Gold

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II – Understanding Where Gold and Silver Go from Here

As readers now understand, I am not currently a supporter of higher gold prices as a function of inflation risk. Instead, my view is that we must first move through the various iterations of crisis, collapse, debt default, instability, and policy panic before gold attaches itself to inflation. Yes, I agree with the Paul Brodsky thesis (and the FOFOA thesis) that the foundations of future inflation have already been laid. But it’s also my view that for a severe inflation to unfold, there has to be a collapse in currency demand itself. It would also be necessary for global industrial production to have collapsed down to much lower levels to provide sufficient scarcity of goods. Mind you, I see both of these conditions — rejection of currencies and industrial collapse — as high risk. The two maps I offer here include them.

Mapping the Price Future of Gold and Silver

The first price path I want to share with you is called The Grand QE Cycle. It begins with the resolution to the most pressing question facing markets right here, right now, today: Will the ECB federalize all Eurozone debt?

Based on my own analysis and in consultation with contacts, I concluded for myself weeks ago that the crisis in the EU was becoming increasingly binary. Indeed, it is now fully binary. Either the ECB guides to a new charter or mandate, allowing it to buy unlimited quantities of EU debt, or it follows through on its hard-money threats — and the sovereign debt, which forms the core asset of pension funds, banks, institutions across the EU, will become distressed debt, forcing a cataclysmic purge.

Because this urgent question has not been definitively answered as yet, gold is making its way in volatile fashion towards a price of…

Understanding Where Gold and Silver Go from Here
PREVIEW by Gregor Macdonald

Understanding Where Gold and Silver Go from Here

by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Monday, November 21, 2011

Executive Summary

  • The outlook for precious metals will be heavily influenced by the steps the European Central Bank (ECB) takes in the near future.
  • Understanding the likely price trajectories of the precious metals whether or not central banks resume quantitative easing (QE, a.k.a. money printing)
  • The specific price targets for both gold and silver under the most likely scenarios
  • Underscoring the gravity of our current situation

Part I – The New Price Era of Oil and Gold

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II – Understanding Where Gold and Silver Go from Here

As readers now understand, I am not currently a supporter of higher gold prices as a function of inflation risk. Instead, my view is that we must first move through the various iterations of crisis, collapse, debt default, instability, and policy panic before gold attaches itself to inflation. Yes, I agree with the Paul Brodsky thesis (and the FOFOA thesis) that the foundations of future inflation have already been laid. But it’s also my view that for a severe inflation to unfold, there has to be a collapse in currency demand itself. It would also be necessary for global industrial production to have collapsed down to much lower levels to provide sufficient scarcity of goods. Mind you, I see both of these conditions — rejection of currencies and industrial collapse — as high risk. The two maps I offer here include them.

Mapping the Price Future of Gold and Silver

The first price path I want to share with you is called The Grand QE Cycle. It begins with the resolution to the most pressing question facing markets right here, right now, today: Will the ECB federalize all Eurozone debt?

Based on my own analysis and in consultation with contacts, I concluded for myself weeks ago that the crisis in the EU was becoming increasingly binary. Indeed, it is now fully binary. Either the ECB guides to a new charter or mandate, allowing it to buy unlimited quantities of EU debt, or it follows through on its hard-money threats — and the sovereign debt, which forms the core asset of pension funds, banks, institutions across the EU, will become distressed debt, forcing a cataclysmic purge.

Because this urgent question has not been definitively answered as yet, gold is making its way in volatile fashion towards a price of…

by charleshughsmith

The Future of Work

by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Many of today’s current job positions will vanish as the debt that has made them possible retraces
  • Future demand for work will come from non-financial sectors
  • Cost management will re-assert it’s importance on par with income growth
  • Non-market and hybrid work models will grow to employ many more people than they do now
  • Participation in social and capital networks (both physical and virtual) will become increasingly valuable

Part I

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II

The Vulnerability of Our Debt-Dependent Workforce

In Part I of The Future of Work, we examined the future trend of the US economy and found that ever-expanding debt has been the “engine” that has powered growth (as measured by GDP, gross domestic product) over the past 30 years. The productivity of debt has now fallen to zero, or perhaps even less than zero, which means that increasing debt no longer adds to GDP.

The structural weakness of this model is reflected by the diminishing number of jobs, and the declining ratio of payroll and employment to population and per capita measures of the economy.

Simply put, an economy that has become increasingly dependent on debt for its growth no longer creates jobs. Rather, the cost of servicing all that debt acts as unproductive friction.

The Future of Work
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

The Future of Work

by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Many of today’s current job positions will vanish as the debt that has made them possible retraces
  • Future demand for work will come from non-financial sectors
  • Cost management will re-assert it’s importance on par with income growth
  • Non-market and hybrid work models will grow to employ many more people than they do now
  • Participation in social and capital networks (both physical and virtual) will become increasingly valuable

Part I

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II

The Vulnerability of Our Debt-Dependent Workforce

In Part I of The Future of Work, we examined the future trend of the US economy and found that ever-expanding debt has been the “engine” that has powered growth (as measured by GDP, gross domestic product) over the past 30 years. The productivity of debt has now fallen to zero, or perhaps even less than zero, which means that increasing debt no longer adds to GDP.

The structural weakness of this model is reflected by the diminishing number of jobs, and the declining ratio of payroll and employment to population and per capita measures of the economy.

Simply put, an economy that has become increasingly dependent on debt for its growth no longer creates jobs. Rather, the cost of servicing all that debt acts as unproductive friction.

Total 2665 items