Economy
By popular demand, we welcome Joseph Tainter, USU professor and author of The Collapse Of Complex Societies (free book download here).
Dr. Tainter sees many of the same unsustainable risks the PeakProsperity.com audience focuses on — an overleveraged economy, declining net energy per capita, and depleting key resources.
He argues that the sustainability or collapse of a society follows from the success or failure of its problem-solving institutions. His work shows that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity and their energy subsidies reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. That is what we are going to be talking about today, especially in regards to where our culture is today, the risks it faces, and whether or not we might already be past the tipping point towards collapse but just don’t know it yet.
Joseph Tainter: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
by Chris MartensonBy popular demand, we welcome Joseph Tainter, USU professor and author of The Collapse Of Complex Societies (free book download here).
Dr. Tainter sees many of the same unsustainable risks the PeakProsperity.com audience focuses on — an overleveraged economy, declining net energy per capita, and depleting key resources.
He argues that the sustainability or collapse of a society follows from the success or failure of its problem-solving institutions. His work shows that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity and their energy subsidies reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. That is what we are going to be talking about today, especially in regards to where our culture is today, the risks it faces, and whether or not we might already be past the tipping point towards collapse but just don’t know it yet.
Executive Summary
- The critical value of scarcity
- Understanding the utility of the blockchain
- Will (can?) governments ban cryptocurrencies?
- A coming geometric explosion in the price of cryptocurrency?
If you have not yet read Part 1: Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part 1, we surveyed the exciting but confusing speculative boom phase of cryptocurrencies. Here in Part 2, we will contextualize this mad swirl by running it through two filters: scarcity and utility.
What’s Scarce? Scarcity Creates Value
Regardless of one’s economic ideology or system, scarcity creates value and abundance destroys value. When we say supply and demand, we’re really talking about scarcity and abundance and the rise or fall of demand for the commodity, good or service.
In classical economic theory, scarcity is met with substitution: ground beef too expensive due to relative scarcity? Buy ground turkey instead.
But this model has weaknesses. There aren’t always substitutes, or the substitutes are more expensive or problematic than what is now scarce.
As a general rule, profits flow to any scarcity of goods and services with high utility value. We value what’s scarce and useful, and place little value on what’s abundant and of limited utility.
Currency has three basic functions: a store of value (it will retain its purchasing power over time), means of exchange (we can use it to trade goods and services, pay debts, etc.) and as an accounting mechanism to track assets, debts, income, expenses and exchanges/trades.
We assume all currency has this function, but only currency that is easily divisible and easily tradable enables easy accounting. If a notched stick is a unit of currency, and one stick buys a pig, what do I use for purchases smaller than a pig?
In today’s world, a currency must be….
The Value Drivers Of Cryptocurrency
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- The critical value of scarcity
- Understanding the utility of the blockchain
- Will (can?) governments ban cryptocurrencies?
- A coming geometric explosion in the price of cryptocurrency?
If you have not yet read Part 1: Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part 1, we surveyed the exciting but confusing speculative boom phase of cryptocurrencies. Here in Part 2, we will contextualize this mad swirl by running it through two filters: scarcity and utility.
What’s Scarce? Scarcity Creates Value
Regardless of one’s economic ideology or system, scarcity creates value and abundance destroys value. When we say supply and demand, we’re really talking about scarcity and abundance and the rise or fall of demand for the commodity, good or service.
In classical economic theory, scarcity is met with substitution: ground beef too expensive due to relative scarcity? Buy ground turkey instead.
But this model has weaknesses. There aren’t always substitutes, or the substitutes are more expensive or problematic than what is now scarce.
As a general rule, profits flow to any scarcity of goods and services with high utility value. We value what’s scarce and useful, and place little value on what’s abundant and of limited utility.
Currency has three basic functions: a store of value (it will retain its purchasing power over time), means of exchange (we can use it to trade goods and services, pay debts, etc.) and as an accounting mechanism to track assets, debts, income, expenses and exchanges/trades.
We assume all currency has this function, but only currency that is easily divisible and easily tradable enables easy accounting. If a notched stick is a unit of currency, and one stick buys a pig, what do I use for purchases smaller than a pig?
In today’s world, a currency must be….
Executive Summary
- The case of the missing credit impulse
- The credit impulse is the worst its been in recent history
- How the situation is deteriorating fast
- Why a credit impulse-driven recession is nigh
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The Case Of The Missing Credit Impulse
An enormous oversight of nearly every major economist is the role of debt in both fostering current growth but also stealing from future growth.
It seems like such a simple concept, and it’s one I covered in great detail back in 2008 in the original Crash Course, but it remains a mysterious oversight of most here in 2017. The concept is easy enough; if I borrow money to increase my spending here today, it probably makes sense to take note of that if you're an economist responsible for tracking spending.
My debt-funded spending today is my lack of spending in the future when I pay down the debt.
Professor Steve Keen has this topic nailed beautifully. In it, he explains how even simply keeping a massive pile of previously accumulated debt at the same level as last year is a net negative on economic growth. A very simple and a very profound concept that still is not a part of conventional thinking.
Now here where things get interesting. And frightening. If we look at…
Everything You Need To Know About The Credit Impulse
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- The case of the missing credit impulse
- The credit impulse is the worst its been in recent history
- How the situation is deteriorating fast
- Why a credit impulse-driven recession is nigh
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The Case Of The Missing Credit Impulse
An enormous oversight of nearly every major economist is the role of debt in both fostering current growth but also stealing from future growth.
It seems like such a simple concept, and it’s one I covered in great detail back in 2008 in the original Crash Course, but it remains a mysterious oversight of most here in 2017. The concept is easy enough; if I borrow money to increase my spending here today, it probably makes sense to take note of that if you're an economist responsible for tracking spending.
My debt-funded spending today is my lack of spending in the future when I pay down the debt.
Professor Steve Keen has this topic nailed beautifully. In it, he explains how even simply keeping a massive pile of previously accumulated debt at the same level as last year is a net negative on economic growth. A very simple and a very profound concept that still is not a part of conventional thinking.
Now here where things get interesting. And frightening. If we look at…
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