Well, another week has gone by, and not much has changed. The wars are dragging on, markets are creaking along, and nobody in power seems to have any sense of what’s actually unfolding.
The Wars Continue
Out of all the refineries in the world, the largest and therefore most vital is the Al Abqaiq refinery in Saudi Arabia. It handles ~7% of global oil and refined products on a daily basis.
It’s on fire again:
BREAKING: ANSAR ALLAH HAVE STRUCK THE WORLD’S LARGEST CRUDE OIL PROCESSING & STABALIZATION FACILITY IN ABQAIQ SAUDI ARABIA pic.twitter.com/y541B6h8HU
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) October 8, 2026
That looks like five spots of intense fire.
🇸🇦🇾🇪Houthi allegedly strike world's LARGEST oil hub in Saudi Arabia Satellite footage shows massive fires and thick black smoke pouring over Abqaiq after forces hit the mega site.Abqaiq is the beating heart of Saudi oil, processing 7 million barrels a day. That is over half…
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 9, 2026
Also, the Rabigh refinery complex was hit with as-yet-unknown damage (looks like fuel storage tanks) but certainly intense fires:
🛰 Sentinel-2 satelite imagery confirms damage on fuel tanks at the massive integrated oil refining and petrochemical complex located in Rabigh, Saudi Arabia. https://t.co/KUOKmb0yIW pic.twitter.com/z0LD6FaMxW
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) October 8, 2026
The Houthis also hit the main airport in Riyadh, destroying an Airbus jet:
BREAKING: First ground-level footage shows massive smoke rising from inside King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh after Yemen’s Houthis reportedly targeted the airport with ballistic missiles, with a Saudi Airlines aircraft appearing to have been destroyed in the incident.… pic.twitter.com/WnP9FUShkF
— The Hormuz Report (@HormuzReport) October 8, 2026
Iran apparently read the same articles we did, claiming that the US had achieved complete superiority over the Strait of Hormuz and that oil flows had climbed all the way back up to pre-war levels. That wasn’t true, of course, but it was claimed by Trump all the same.
So Iran responded, as of this morning, having struck 15 tankers since last Wednesday:
ALL TIT, NO TATUKMTO reports another shipping attack in the Gulf.Disconcerting to see these attacks drift west into the Gulf and away from actual transiting Hormuz traffic.That makes 15 attacks since last Wednesday.Still no retaliatory response from CENTCOM. pic.twitter.com/zpSWx5V7Wh
— Rory Johnston (@Rory_Johnston) October 9, 2026
This is newsworthy:
And this is too:
BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran has struck an Emirati VLCC (very large crude carrier) anchored off the coast of Fujairah, United Arab EmiratesIt marks the second oil tanker struck by Iran beyond the Strait of Hormuz within just the past 24 hours. Targeting ships anchored at ports is a…
— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) October 8, 2026
If this is true, it’s huge news:
If the US were successful at opening the Strait, then I would posit that tanker shipping rates would not be exploding higher as they have been the past few months:
Even tankers from West Africa are now an additional $27 a barrel just for shipping:
Shipping a single tanker of crude from West Africa to China now costs $27.22 per barrel. In July it was about $6.50.That's a +319% jump in just over two months 📈When moving oil costs this much more than it did a few months ago, the market is telling you something: buyers are… pic.twitter.com/ev1lnApWeg
— Qasem Al-Ali (@AlaliQasem) October 7, 2026
That works out to a whopping $40/barrel to get oil
by larrythelogger 
