Happy Friday, everyone!
In keeping with the Good News Friday theme, perhaps I should lead off with this:
NEW – BioNTech to close three factories in Germany amid low capacity utilization and declining demand for mRNA injections, marketed against Covid.
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) September 28, 2026
The Iran War – Who Even Knows Anymore?
I understand that truth is the first victim in any war, but this is getting ridiculous. Is the Strait fully under US control as Mighty Wurlitzer has been telling us all week? If so, then why are ships still blowing up on a near-daily schedule?
Five tankers struck in four days in the Strait of Hormuz (according to UKMTO).Kuwaiti-owned AL FUNTASKuwaiti-owned KAZIMAH IIIUAE-owned SINBADUAE-owned MERSIN PROSPERITYUAE-owned AL RUWAIS https://t.co/mRUDXnhb2e pic.twitter.com/zqh7uqiEdC
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) October 2, 2026
“Oct 1: Struck by an unknown projectile and on fire”
UKMTO WARNING 147-26Click here to view the full product.⤵️https://t.co/YH6hTglRNr#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/FSfBSlOhuX
— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) October 1, 2026
A VLCC (that’s one of the biggies) reported struck this morning (Oct2):
BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran struck a very large crude carrier (VLCC) carrying 2.5 million barrels of oil in the Strait of Hormuz.
— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) October 2, 2026
Also, even as Brent futures get clobbered every single early morning, real, physical oil (“Dated Brent”) remains close to $130/bbl. Since the first week of September, actual oil has headed sharply higher while paper oil has trundled lower. This is the starkest divergence yet:

The constant shenanigans with dumping oil futures have chased away a lot of traders. The open interest on the Brent contract has been falling ever since the war began. Who wants to take the risk of being on the wrong side of a front-ran Trump tweet?

Speaking of which, the NYTimes, WSJ, and other MSM outlets have been running with the same analysis, which says that more oil is getting out of the Gulf region than before the war:

The problem with this analysis is that it all relies on the same private companies who are accessing the same satellite photos that are first going through the DOW(ar).