Everything hinges on what happens over the next few days…if the Strait of Hormus remains closed, then the largest energy shock in history grows exponentially worse. This isn’t a linear function. The effects are already large and picking up pace.
Straight Of Confusion – Or Trump’s Folly
Sunday, Trump was on point as he put out another long, rambling missive to the world that claimed the US was going to be escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH).
“Project Freedom”
Iran immediately responded that any such move would be a violation of the ceasefire:
⚠ WARNINGAny American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would not be managed by Trump's delusional posts!No one would believe Blame Game scenarios!
— ابراهیم عزیزی (@Ebrahimazizi33) May 3, 2026
Negotiations are not going all that well with Iran’s Foreign Minister this morning, saying:
“We received the answer from the U.S. through Pakistan. I prefer not to go into the details of the issues raised right now, because they are still under consideration. But it can be assumed that the U.S. habit of excessive demands and unreasonable demands is not something that is easy for it to stop.”
That’s diplomatic speak for, “The US is not negotiating in good faith and has signaled that they have no real intention of progressing to peace through diplomacy. Their proposal was another heaping of dung.”
The Pizza Index and the huge inflows of heavy air transports say that things are about to get spicy again:
BREAKING: Nearly all of the closest pizzerias to the Pentagon are currently reporting above average traffic again now pic.twitter.com/4CnqwOZBXV
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) May 3, 2026
I’m not sure about this video, but there was at least one verified report of a tanker being struck by missiles after attempting to sneak through the Strait:
The IRGC reportedly carried out a missile strike on two ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz at night. The IRGC Navy reports that the ships turned off their transponders and were operating in the interests of the US Navy. pic.twitter.com/64Ez5bFOpR
— Dimitri Lascaris (@dimitrilascaris) May 4, 2026
Iran claims to
by cmartenson 
