Happy Friday, everyone. Thankfully, nothing really happened this week in terms of war escalation, so we’re able to catch our breath and begin to explore other subjects.
Deal or No Deal?
In the Monday Fat Pipe, Scott Bessent and Trump were both chirping excitedly about a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). Oil fell sharply on the ‘news’ which many, including myself, didn’t believe.
It turns out those misgivings were well placed. As of this morning, the SoH was still tightly bottled up.
Trump continues with the fiction that Iran really wants a deal badly:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump on Iran:"They want to make a deal. Look, it's obvious they don't want to be hit. They want to make a deal. So, we'll see."If everyone wants this deal so much, what's taking so long? Iranian media keeps pushing back on Trump's statements day after day.Writer:…
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 7, 2026
I see no evidence of that so far. Iran is sticking to its position that it controls the SoH and that it’s going to charge fees for crossing.
The Art of The Deal:
IRAN: "We're going to charge $1/barrel transit fees. That's between 1% and 2%."TRUMP: "That's outrageous, here are some bombs instead!"IRAN: "The fees have now increased to 5% to 7%."TRUMP (probably): "Deal!" https://t.co/mD6rdD7k0O
— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) August 6, 2026
“This word ‘defeated’ – it does not mean what you seem to think it means.”
The Iran war is a strategic disaster for the US. Now our potential peer adversaries know exactly what we can and cannot do…and it’s kind of shocking how toothless the US military actually is. If we were to assign blame, I would point my finger at a bloated money-sucking MI complex that has only really optimized padding contracts vs. trying to make better products at scale.
IRAN WAR DISASTER: THE WORLD JUST LEARNED HOW WEAK THE US HAND REALLY ISA 20-year Defense Department veteran who spent a decade on missiles and missile defense just delivered a blunt assessment. This war is a disaster for the United States. Not because of any single battlefield… https://t.co/5OT345rRsq pic.twitter.com/RXxMlLkLDh
— Mark (@Mark4XX) August 6, 2026
I have long said that if I woke up one day and read that a US aircraft carrier had been sunk, I would initiate my final running away from the dollar. I’d
by thecountmc 
