Happy Monday, everyone! Lots happened this weekend, so let’s dive in.
The Hairpin of Hormuz
Trump’s tar baby is Iran. Presumably lured into it with visions of easy wins and something more to boast about, it has turned into the defining disaster of his entire legacy, and possibly of any president since Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act.
By the way, we’re not refilling the SPR with Venezuelan heavy oil – it’s the wrong grade and, you’ll be interested to know, any oil with an API of 10 or lower sinks in water, so it is thoroughly unsuitable for SPR storage (A lot of VZ oil is 10 or below).
Last night things went to heck again with the U.S. attacking Iranian military assets on the smallish island ‘Larak’ killing a few IRGC military personnel. Iran replied with drones in the UAE and missiles to Jordan:
Summary from last night:> U.S. attacks Larak island> Iran responds, attacks U.S. Bases in Jordan, UAE> Iran shoot down an MQ-9A> Large Oil Tanker struck two naval minesMoment drones were launched at Al Minhad Air Base, UAE: https://t.co/Q4qmScM2d2 pic.twitter.com/jlpfA7seXi
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) August 31, 2026
At least two were intercepted by a wave of PAC-3 patriot interceptor missiles. One wonders why only these two interceptions were recorded and posted…
BREAKING: Tonight, U.S. Army Patriot PAC-3 batteries in Jordan appear to be firing at least three to four MIM-104F surface-to-air missiles at each incoming Iranian ballistic missile. If sustained across tonight’s engagements, more than 100 of these valuable interceptors may have… pic.twitter.com/S5DvitOEJC
— Babak Taghvaee – The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) August 30, 2026
It’s unclear as of this morning what damage was caused by the drones and missiles:
JUST IN: UAE TARGETED BY SUICIDE DRONESMinhad base, UAE targeted by drones of the Iranian armyPublic Relations Statement: “From early this morning, in response to the recent aggressions of the hostile enemy and in retaliation for the brave IRGC martyrs and the innocent… pic.twitter.com/OUGcqoxhhY
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) August 31, 2026
But given these reports, I seriously doubt the answer is “not much.”
Joe Kent trying to inject some sanity from the bleacher seats before it’s too late:
We just struck targets on Lark Island, Iran will respond. If we want to control the escalation cycle & not have the war accelerate we must get our troops out of the region.If Iran gets lucky & kills U.S. troops we will be sucked back into the war on Iran’s terms. Troops out.… https://t.co/6t1Ozm5hQk pic.twitter.com/ZU0hjo5s1F
— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) August 30, 2026
Trouble At Home
This is unusual to say the least. Top US military brass ‘leaked’ to the Washington Post a document that cast serious doubt on the US military’s ability and, more importantly,
by westcoastjan 
