Happy Friday. We somehow made it through another week without anything going too awry. The peaches are in, and this morning is our first slight chill in the air, reminding me that this summer has gone by far too quickly.
The Iran War Simmers Along
It’s clear that neither side has the advantage. So Trump just posts idle threats while Iran claims victory.
Iran declares victory:
* PRESIDENT PEZESHKIAN SAYS IRAN SHOULD END WAR NOW THAT IT IS IN A POSITION OF STRENGTH AND WORLD ACKNOWLEDGES ITS VICTORY — ISNA@Reuters
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 21, 2026
Trump declares economic war on ANY country that does business with Iran:
But despite having completely destroyed every branch of Iran’s military, somehow, nearly every day, ships are being attacked in both Straits:
A cargo ship has been attacked in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, sustaining multiple hits -UKMTOThe ship is considered a "complete constructive loss" pic.twitter.com/2BHgUh7eeD
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 18, 2026
Iranian forces attacked another ship in the Strait of Hormuz overnight while it was transiting the US-guarded outbound lane -UKMTOAn unknown projectile hit the vessel in the engine room, with at least one crew casualty reported. pic.twitter.com/tQMX594eFH
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 18, 2026
Meanwhile, the US, without providing any pictures or data, keeps making wild claims about having fully restored tanker traffic oil flows. No independent confirmation of this has yet happened, and believe me there are a lot of extremely sharp eyes on the job.
🚨 IT'S OFFICIAL: Iran is slowly realizing that President Trump and the US military are SUCCEEDING in covertly sneaking oil out of the Strait of Hormuz to the tune of 10 MILLION+ BARRELSSome nights hit 15-20 million…that's pre-war flows!Even CNN had to admit: Iran is LOSING… pic.twitter.com/Uvk4RihEV6
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 20, 2026
So things just continue to simmer along as the US eats through its stockpiles of oil and finished products.
US oil inventories are down more this week, to new multi-year lows pic.twitter.com/wvgJXx2kDy
— Bison Insights (@BisonInsights) August 5, 2026
The whole world is eating through its stockpiles:
We have absorbed ~300MM Bbls from global SPRs and ~140MM Bbls from floating storage in the Strait, and this has masked oil's inherent tightness, as seen in this chart with visible onshore inventories flat for the past 2 months. No more. With ~8MM Bbl/d of Middle Eastern… pic.twitter.com/nlh1x3A8VI
— Eric Nuttall (@ericnuttall) August 20, 2026
Diesel! And LNG!
About the only petroleum-related signal that makes sense to me these days is diesel. By tracking this we get a good sense of future inflation.
In New England at NY Harbor, diesel has been on a tear:
Team Trump is scrambling and trying everything and anything it can to get fuel prices down before November:
The Trump administration is authorizing an early shift to the sale of wintertime gasoline blends, its latest move to blunt fuel costs and supply concerns stoked by the war in Iran. https://t.co/miqMvCIXWP
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 21, 2026
The other hydrocarbon signal that is about to rampage across Europe is the price of natural gas.
by davefairtex 
