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Tech Issues; Fourth Turning Cycle Timing

Original Content
61
By davefairtex
October 30, 2022

Tech Issues; Fourth Turning Cycle Timing

Original Content
By davefairtex on
October 30, 2022
61

This week, it was the European Central Bank’s turn to raise rates, this time by 75 basis points to yield a massive 1.5% for deposits.  Just kidding about the massive part. The ECB has a lot of rate-increasing to do to catch up with the Fed, but the currency moves this week seemed to hint that Big Money was at least somewhat mollified by the ECB’s latest, belated moves.

Wolf Richter has a breakdown as to the rest of what they did – more or less encouraging the banks to repay the two trillion in zero-interest loans the ECB gave them because, Pandemic. I have to say, Wolf’s charts are pretty cool – especially the EU Consumer Price Index, and the ECB’s balance sheet; most of the balance sheet will remain (Source – WolfStreet).

The buck fell this week, losing 1.37 [-1.23%] to 110.61. That move pulled the buck below the 50 Moving Average, which is a bearish signal. A trend change, or just a reaction drop during an uptrend? The losses happened on Tuesday and Wednesday. I’m guessing the drop had a little something to do with the ECB. What will happen after the Fed meeting next Wednesday? The reverse, perhaps?  Powell’s press conference (2:30 PM Eastern) should give us a look at what’s next.

Crude rose 2.85 [+3.35%] to 87.90; crude is now back above its 50 MA. Why do we care about the 50? It is one of these “medium term trend indicators”, and a close above or below hints at a potential trend change. In this case, maybe a bullish one. Although it did the same thing three weeks ago…reading the price tea leaves, it does look like a bullish trend change. And the candle print also looks bullish. And the open interest remains quite low, which is also bullish – the banksters are well-positioned for a rally. And of course there’s the election coming up in maybe 10 days. The WEF/Biden-Handlers are very enthusiastic to see a higher oil price – but only post-election. “Climate Change”, of course.

The weekly Biden-Handler oil-pillaging campaign remained at a relatively low level (merely $300 million this week) two weeks before the midterms. Have the Biden-Handlers been shamed into reducing it? They don’t invite me to the meetings, so I have no idea. But I am pretty confident they’ll start refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (paid for with your money) once the election is over. What do we imagine that will do to oil prices? Maybe that’s why the open interest for crude is so very low right now. Banksters know.

In spite of the plunge in the buck, gold didn’t do so well this week, losing 11.50 [-0.69%] to 1644.80. That’s unusual; normally gold rallies when the buck falls. Open interest jumped higher this week [+26,994 contracts]; I’m guessing that reflects an attempt by the banksters to push prices lower going into end-of-month delivery. Can’t have the Plebes taking delivery of actual metal. A plunging gold price during delivery encourages the Plebes to dump their contracts.

Equities rallied strongly this week, up 148.31 [+3.95%] to 3901.10. It was a bullish candle print, and it was confirmed by a very strong rally in crappy debt [JNK +3.01%] as well. Both risk-on items are back above their 50 MA lines too. Curiously though, the equity sector map overall was bearish; industrials (+6.27%)  & utilities (+6.08%) led, while Big Tech (-2.28%) and discretionary (+1.77%) did worst.

So – that huge loss in Big Tech – what was that about? Wolf had a good piece breaking down what happened (Source – WolfStreet). One key signal: AMZN cratered [-14%] this week after the earnings report Thursday evening; operating income fell by 48%, operating expense climbed by 17%. They are losing money on retail – they are making it back (just barely) with AWS (web services).  They are also closing down a bunch of offices too.  Likewise, META cratered -25% on Thursday also. Apparently, nobody cares about the “metaverse” – except for the WEFers that want us in our pods, drugged out, eating bugs, living there 24/7, and playing Meta. There were other losses in tech across the board too. Tech usually leads. A plunge is quite bearish for the market overall.

Yields ahead of that Fed meeting next Wednesday: 1-month +11bp [3.66%], 1-year -1 bp [4.57%], 10-year -20 bp [4.01%].  Curve remains inverted. Chances of a 75 bp rate increase have dropped to 82% (Source – CME).

And the big move higher in utilities – not a bullish signal; big rallies in utilities are a flight to safety.  Similarly, the 10-year treasury yield fell 20 bp to 4.01%. Money moving into the 10-year also tends to be a flight to safety too. So far though, no bearish reversal for the 10-year yield.

There were a number of economic reports this week:

  • Personal Income: +0.36% m/m
  • Durable Goods, new orders: +0.36%
  • Auto/Lt Trucks: +2.92% m/m
  • Median New Home Sales Price: +7.39% m/m; months/supply 9.2 [+1.10]
  • GDP: +1.62% q/q

The home “supply” number at 9 months says we’re still in a housing bubble pop; the rising median price (near all time highs) suggests to me that rich people with cash are still buying the higher-priced homes, but normal people using loans aren’t buying the lower priced stuff – maybe because that 30-year mortgage is 7.06% [+14 bp this week]. Auto sales remain depressed; this modest move didn’t help much. Durable goods & shipments both look very strong, near all time highs.

And, of course, the positive GDP move was in nominal terms; “real” GDP (FRED: GDPC1), allegedly adjusted for inflation, was +0.64% q/q. But of course if you really inflation-adjusted the GDP number, we’d be in a recession.

 


“health”:

More Sick Days? Doctors Predict Collision of Flu, Covid-19 and RSV (Source – WSJ).

COVID, flu and RSV this U.S. winter: Why experts are worried (Source – Pfizer/Reuters); does anyone else have this visceral, negative reaction to the word “experts”? Whenever I see it, I feel like I am being gaslit.

For those still trying to duck covid, the isolation is worse than ever (Source – WAPO); Mass formation is wearing off.  Poll provides numbers:

  • 22% “very concerned about a family member becoming seriously ill with covid” vs 45% last September
  • 25% “supported mask mandates and social distancing guidelines” vs 63% last September.

It’s a Bad Time to Be a Booster Slacker (Source – Atlantic); Pharma/MSM is now starting to insult the middle 40%.

If your COVID vaccine left you feeling terrible, it probably offered you better protection, new study suggests (Source – Yahoo); tacitly admitting that a huge number of adverse events have occurred.

Bodybuilder Doug Brignole died less than one week after he got the new bivalent booster shot (Source – Steve Kirsch); last year, Brignole asked us to use him as a test case.

When a perfectly healthy person dies in their sleep, it is subclinical vaccine induced myocarditis unless the family comes out and denies they took it! (Source – McCullough); flip the script.  SADS = caused by the shot, unless proven otherwise.

U.S. heart attack deaths jumped sharply among young adults in 2nd year of pandemic (Source – SeattleTimes); “adults ages 25-44 experiencing the most significant increases.” 25-44: +29.9%,  46-54: +19.6%, 65+: +13.7%. Another tacit admission – a shocking number of younger people are having heart attacks.

New York Supreme Court reinstates all employees fired for being unvaccinated, orders backpay (Source – Fox).

“We are not QR codes” New Alberta Premier Danielle Smith apologizes for vaccine passports (Source – reclaimthenet); Oh Canada!

Italy Plans to Allow Unvaccinated Health Care Workers to Return to Work (Source – EpochTimes); The Meloni Effect.

A Lost Small Town (Source – Naomi Wolf); a tale of lost social contacts and exclusion from society. And no apology, just embarrassment.

4 Popular Medications That Spike Your Cancer Risk, According to Doctors (Source – Yahoo); including: some forms of blood pressure drugs, proton pump inhibitors, diabetes drugs, estrogen therapy.  They’re giving us “reasons” why we have more cancers. A tacit admission.

4 things you can do to fight dementia and improve your memory (Source – marketwatch); stress levels, sleep habits, nutrition and exercise.  They’re giving us “reasons” why we have more neural and memory issues too. Another tacit admission.

Spike Protein Disrupting Immunity in Millions After COVID Infection or Vaccination: Here’s How It’s Being Treated (Source – EpochTimes);  conditions include:

  • chronic inflammation
  • immune dysregulation (spike proteins enter immune cells, switch off normal immune responses, and trigger pro-inflammatory pathways instead)
  • inhibits autophagy – “that’s why the spike can stay in the cells for such a long time.”
  • reduced T and natural killer cell activity
  • damage DNA, reduce DNA repair
  • autoimmune disease – spike contains: “molecular mimicry” – looks like many different parts of the human body
  • mitochondrial dysfunction (chronic fatigue, brain fog, exercise intolerance, muscle weakness)
  • damages blood vessel walls (ACE2 & CD147); target: blood vessels, heart, immune system, ovaries, etc.
  • “systemic syndrome” rather than a disease, since spike goes everywhere
  • 80% vax injured have neurological issues; some vaxxed people from Dec 2020 remain injured today.
  • long COVID is more self-resolving

Domestic:

“Progressive” Democrats Formally Retract Call For Diplomacy As Ukraine War Hawks Steamroll Dissent (Source – ZeroHedge); Uniparty controls the “progressives.” Curious as to how that came about.

FBI Asks Court for 66 Years to Release Information From Seth Rich’s Computer (Source – Epoch Times); smells like Nixon & Watergate, like Pfizer & the FDA. Something is being covered up. Because – Democracy. Or something else.

Dispatch Audio, Police Official Reveal More Details About Attack on Paul Pelosi (Source – EpochTimes);  Here is the alleged attacker’s alleged “right wing” blog (Source – blog).  [edit] Ok, that didn’t last long – the site has been taken down. Find it at archive.org (Source). Bannon has a video on the subject too (Source – bannon/rumble). Allegedly a guy, in his underwear, hits Paul Pelosi with a hammer at 2AM in the morning. But only after the police arrive to witness the attack. Gateway Pundit points out that – according to archive – this website allegedly belonging to the alleged attacker has existed for exactly two days. (Source – Gateway Pundit). This, ten days before the midterms where Pelosi’s wife is going to lose her #3 slot. Things are getting more than a little bit weird right now.

‘It was tough’: Fetterman supporters voice concern that debate performance will sway undecided voters (Source – CNN); the WEF’s plan for our Technocrat future: vaccine-injured “leaders” that have computers telling them what to say.

Biden, 79, claims US has FIFTY-FOUR states during speech in support of post-stroke Senate hopeful John Fetterman (Source – DailyMail)

Biden Tells Voters to Choose Democrats Because Republicans Will ‘Crash the Economy’ on Purpose (Source – Epoch Times); they always accuse you of doing…what they themselves are doing. “The Great Reset.” After November 8th, of course.

Top Twitter executives fired as Elon Musk takeover begins (Source – Washington Post); WAPO doesn’t like it when Oligarchs buy news organizations. Except for Bezos, of course. He’s different.

GOP Senators on Health Cmte release interim report on COVID-19 (Source – OANN); OMG it was a lab leak! And they sure were quick, too. Only took 30 months. Dr. Malone calls it a limited hangout.

Lawsuit filed to stop vigilante surveillance of drop boxes in Arizona (Source – CNN); “mostly peaceful” vigilantes.  Definitely not Feds staging a false flag.

Group can monitor Arizona ballot drop boxes, US judge rules (Source – yahoo); ok, maybe entirely peaceful vigilantes.


Energy:

Our pets are part of the climate problem. These tips can help you minimize their carbon pawprints (Source – CNN); buy lizards!

Climate Change = Military Strategy (Source – armstrong); the WEFers want to seize Russia’s resources?

Macron-Scholz: Difficult Paris summit for German chancellor (Source – BBC); to cap gas prices or not, as well as “state aid”, which other EU nations cannot afford. Perhaps Sholz isn’t WEF-enough for Young Global Leader Macron?

Current emissions pledges will lead to catastrophic climate breakdown, says UN (Source – Guardian); “To decarbonize society, the share of zero-carbon sources in electricity generation must accelerate exponentially to tackle the climate crisis. This can only be achieved with a commensurate and rapid phase out of fossil power.” And this is accomplished – how? Hope? Thoughts and prayers?

Opinion: What Britain’s first Asian prime minister means to my family (Source – CNN); race matters, policy does not, just as the WEF intended. Any criticism of pro-Oligarchy wealth-transfer-policy = you’re a racist.


Foreign:

Pentagon’s Strategy Won’t Rule Out Nuclear Use Against Non-Nuclear Threats (Source – Bloomberg); What could possibly go wrong?

The problems in the Chinese economy (Source – Pettis); “The problems in the Chinese economy – surging debt, an insolvent banking system, widespread moral hazard, a huge over-reliance on investment in non-productive infrastructure and property, punishingly low consumption rates, etc. – were not created under Xi.  These were problems that evolved over the past two decades….If China’s current slowdown was caused by policy “mistakes” made in the past 2-3 years, it can be reversed by reversing these policy mistakes. If, on the other hand, China’s current slowdown is the consequence of the deep distortions in China’s income distribution, then the only way to resolve them and to reverse the unsustainable build up in debt requires that these imbalances be resolved.”

Mostly, China’s 1990-2010 success was about building needed infrastructure. But when every city has a subway, a train station, and an airport – then what? Two airports isn’t better than one. More empty apartments? The 2010-2020 “excess infrastructure” tab is now due and payable. To pile on, Zero-Covid policy remains in place. Adjustment dead ahead.


Overall, vaccines are back in the news cycle, so is virus fearporn (“Triple-Demic!”), and the MSM propaganda groups are coming up with “reasons” why we’re getting more dementia, and more cancer. Whenever I see articles about causes for diseases, I’m now thinking: “tacit admission of a major vax SAE.” Pharma/Oligarchy appears to be trying to extract the last $20-$30 billion out of the still-terrified 20% mass-formation victims. Vaccine mandates are (slowly) on the way out as normal people react.

It is a messy bunch of headlines as election day draws nearer. Stroke-victims as potential Senators (whose mental acuity the WEF/MSM will not allow you to question), FBI coverups, attempts to forestall 2000 mule detection, and some guy – in his underwear – allegedly assaults Paul Pelosi in his home at 2AM. Only after the police arrive.


Last thing.  My Hypothesis of the Week: Fourth Turning Timing = The Ticking Clock

From The Fourth Turning: (Source – 13d); ” Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire…The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” That sure feels right.

So do the WEF/Biden-Handlers know about, and believe in this Fourth Turning timing? Try this on for size:  (Source – youtube/Morning Invest). President Teleprompter: “Now is the time things are shifting. There’s gonna be a New World Order out there. And we’ve gotta lead it. We’ve gotta unite the rest of the Free World in doing it.” He also talks about cycles too – WWI and WWII, and all the deaths. So, the WEF appears to be on board with the cycle theory – enough to make the effort to “educate” President Teleprompter about it anyway. (Didja ever hear Old Joe talk about this stuff before? Me either).

The timing of the Fourth Turning cycle is the key. These long cycles have their own pace and inexorability. And one key date is fast approaching: 2025, seemingly a date with maximum power. I’m guessing they have computer models which show them this.  Remember how Herr Klaus called some of his trainees “Global Shapers”? Perhaps their intended role is to try and shape the upcoming Fourth Turning, to place themselves and Technocracy (Trust the Experts!) in charge of the world for the next 100 years.

So, if true, the Fourth Turning cycle timing explains why they needed to flush the Bad Orange Man down the hole in 2020, at all costs. Populism = an existential threat. And 2025 is very near term. And Bad Orange sure wasn’t on board. A mental deficient like President Teleprompter is perfect (as is Fetterman), so that replacing him with “the experts” will feel like such a relief. And the cycle timing is also why 2030 is their projected end date. And this is also why they are desperate to remain on schedule. Otherwise, the once-in-4-generations chance to shape events and cement themselves into power for the next 100 years just passes them right on by. They’ll all be long dead by the time the next chance rolls around. So, this is their shot.

I’m thinking that maybe Bad Orange Man symbolizes a different Fourth Turning outcome. Namely, populism/nationalism/localism as a reaction to the ancient, top-down Bankster/Pharma/Defense-Industrial/Debt-based/Resource-colony/No-borders globalism, much of which has plagued the world for at least a century.

We have a choice. There are lots of us, very few of them, and all we have to do is wake up, and unite, and then make our choice. This is a process, and it appears to be driven primarily by pain and suffering, but once we are united, the Fourth Turning cycle will resolve quite rapidly. And, for the next 100 years, too.

I mean, really. You Will Own Nothing? Allegedly because – Climate Change? While they fly private??!

– Peak Prosperity –

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