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silver

by David Collum

Background

I was just trying to figure it all out.

~ Michael Burry, hedge fund manager

Every December, I write a Year in Review that has now found a home at Chris Martenson’s website PeakProsperity.com.1,2,3 What started as a simple summary intended for a couple dozen people morphed over time into a much more detailed account that accrued over 25,000 clicks last year.4 'Year in Review' is a bit of a misnomer in that it is both a collage of what happened, plus a smattering of issues that are on my radar right now. As to why people care what an organic chemist thinks about investing, economics, monetary policy, and societal moods I can only offer a few thoughts.

For starters, in 33 years of investing with a decidedly undiversified portfolio, I had only one year in which my total wealth decreased in nominal dollars. For the 13 years beginning 01/01/00—the 13 toughest investing years of the new millennium!—I have been able to compound my personal wealth at an 11% annualized rate. This holds up well against the pros. I am also fairly good at distilling complexity down to simplicity and seem to be a congenital contrarian. I also have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory—i.e., free market economics—since the late 1990s.4

Each review begins with a highly personalized analysis of my efforts to get through another year of investing followed by a more holistic overview of what is now a 33-year quest for a ramen-soup-free retirement. These details may be instructive for those interested in my approach to investing. The bulk of the review, however, describes thoughts and observations—the year’s events told as a narrative. The links are copious, albeit not comprehensive. Some are flagged with enthusiasm. Everything can be found here.5

2012 Year in Review
by David Collum

Background

I was just trying to figure it all out.

~ Michael Burry, hedge fund manager

Every December, I write a Year in Review that has now found a home at Chris Martenson’s website PeakProsperity.com.1,2,3 What started as a simple summary intended for a couple dozen people morphed over time into a much more detailed account that accrued over 25,000 clicks last year.4 'Year in Review' is a bit of a misnomer in that it is both a collage of what happened, plus a smattering of issues that are on my radar right now. As to why people care what an organic chemist thinks about investing, economics, monetary policy, and societal moods I can only offer a few thoughts.

For starters, in 33 years of investing with a decidedly undiversified portfolio, I had only one year in which my total wealth decreased in nominal dollars. For the 13 years beginning 01/01/00—the 13 toughest investing years of the new millennium!—I have been able to compound my personal wealth at an 11% annualized rate. This holds up well against the pros. I am also fairly good at distilling complexity down to simplicity and seem to be a congenital contrarian. I also have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory—i.e., free market economics—since the late 1990s.4

Each review begins with a highly personalized analysis of my efforts to get through another year of investing followed by a more holistic overview of what is now a 33-year quest for a ramen-soup-free retirement. These details may be instructive for those interested in my approach to investing. The bulk of the review, however, describes thoughts and observations—the year’s events told as a narrative. The links are copious, albeit not comprehensive. Some are flagged with enthusiasm. Everything can be found here.5

by Adam Taggart

 

This week, Chris talks with Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst at Casey Research, where he serves as editor of their Big Gold newsletter.

They tackle head-on many of the questions weary precious metals investors are wondering after enduing the volatile yet range-bound price action of gold and silver over the past year:

  • Have the fundamentals for owning gold & silver changed over the past year? No
  • What are they? currency devaluation/crisis, supply-chain risk, ore grade depletion
  • How should retail investors own gold? Mostly physical metal, some quality mining majors (avoid the indices), and ETFs only for trading
  • Is gold in a bubble? No
  • Could gold get re-monetized? Quite possibly
  • Where is gold flowing? From the West to the East. At some point, capital controls will be put in place
Jeff Clark: So How Many Ounces of Gold (or Silver) Should You Own?
by Adam Taggart

 

This week, Chris talks with Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst at Casey Research, where he serves as editor of their Big Gold newsletter.

They tackle head-on many of the questions weary precious metals investors are wondering after enduing the volatile yet range-bound price action of gold and silver over the past year:

  • Have the fundamentals for owning gold & silver changed over the past year? No
  • What are they? currency devaluation/crisis, supply-chain risk, ore grade depletion
  • How should retail investors own gold? Mostly physical metal, some quality mining majors (avoid the indices), and ETFs only for trading
  • Is gold in a bubble? No
  • Could gold get re-monetized? Quite possibly
  • Where is gold flowing? From the West to the East. At some point, capital controls will be put in place
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • We've now entered a new era of economic and fiscal descent; expect the next stage to be prolonged and bumpy
  • Why only two possible economic outcomes remain at this point (and one of them has a 90%+ chance of occurring)
  • How the recent liquidity measures announced by the world's largest central banks will impact:
    • stocks
    • bonds
    • gold & silver
    • other commodities
    • real estate
  • Why adopting a wealth preservation strategy is critical right now (and why so many will fail to do so)
  • Why this is not (yet) the moment to go "all in" in exchanging paper assets for hard ones (but do get started if you haven't already!)

If you have not yet read Part I: The Trouble with Printing Money, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

A Process, Not an Event

Okay, the ECB and the Fed are now in the game with unlimited, open-ended commitments to print as much money as necessary to get back to the same rates of GDP growth we had in prior decades. I should note that the ECB actions, at least, will be fully sterilized, meaning that they won't boost the money supply – at least that's the plan right now. Soon enough, Japan is going to have to join the fray simply because it cannot afford a stronger yen here; it will have to print because it is first, second, and last an export economy…

After that, it is anybody's guess as to how long China will put up with its massive $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves being debased willy-nilly, but my vote is 'not long.'

These latest rounds of QE are certainly unnerving and may prompt many of you to want to accelerate your own private efforts at financial, emotional, and physical resilience. By all means, use these moments to focus your attention and efforts. But also be aware that we are experiencing what is certain to be a very long process rather than some dramatic event.

Understanding the Implications of QE3
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • We've now entered a new era of economic and fiscal descent; expect the next stage to be prolonged and bumpy
  • Why only two possible economic outcomes remain at this point (and one of them has a 90%+ chance of occurring)
  • How the recent liquidity measures announced by the world's largest central banks will impact:
    • stocks
    • bonds
    • gold & silver
    • other commodities
    • real estate
  • Why adopting a wealth preservation strategy is critical right now (and why so many will fail to do so)
  • Why this is not (yet) the moment to go "all in" in exchanging paper assets for hard ones (but do get started if you haven't already!)

If you have not yet read Part I: The Trouble with Printing Money, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

A Process, Not an Event

Okay, the ECB and the Fed are now in the game with unlimited, open-ended commitments to print as much money as necessary to get back to the same rates of GDP growth we had in prior decades. I should note that the ECB actions, at least, will be fully sterilized, meaning that they won't boost the money supply – at least that's the plan right now. Soon enough, Japan is going to have to join the fray simply because it cannot afford a stronger yen here; it will have to print because it is first, second, and last an export economy…

After that, it is anybody's guess as to how long China will put up with its massive $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves being debased willy-nilly, but my vote is 'not long.'

These latest rounds of QE are certainly unnerving and may prompt many of you to want to accelerate your own private efforts at financial, emotional, and physical resilience. By all means, use these moments to focus your attention and efforts. But also be aware that we are experiencing what is certain to be a very long process rather than some dramatic event.

by Adam Taggart

We're very pleased to announce our participation in the Hard Assets Alliance, our newly endorsed solution for purchasing precious metals.

For years, we've received a continuous stream of questions from readers, all essentially asking where's the best place to buy gold and silver?

While we've done our best to review and present an assessed list of the top bullion vendors, the remaining work readers needed to do in comparing each of them was still more challenging and confusing than we were comfortable with. It's been clear that folks are hoping for a single "best of the best" recommendation.

That's why we were so glad when the Hard Assets Alliance was formed, and we had the good fortune to be invited to be a Founding Member. This new platform offers so many clear advantages to customers that we were happy to throw our support behind it.

Our New Endorsed Solution for Purchasing Precious Metals
by Adam Taggart

We're very pleased to announce our participation in the Hard Assets Alliance, our newly endorsed solution for purchasing precious metals.

For years, we've received a continuous stream of questions from readers, all essentially asking where's the best place to buy gold and silver?

While we've done our best to review and present an assessed list of the top bullion vendors, the remaining work readers needed to do in comparing each of them was still more challenging and confusing than we were comfortable with. It's been clear that folks are hoping for a single "best of the best" recommendation.

That's why we were so glad when the Hard Assets Alliance was formed, and we had the good fortune to be invited to be a Founding Member. This new platform offers so many clear advantages to customers that we were happy to throw our support behind it.

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