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Image | Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher for Precious Metals

Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher for Precious Metals

by Adam Taggart

Turd Ferguson is a funny guy.

But there's one thing this irreverent, acerbically goofball forecaster is stone-cold serious about: the need to build personal exposure to the precious metals.

For him, it's a straightforward mathematical certainty that the global economy must collapse under the weight of the excessive (and exponentially compounding) credit amassed over the past several decades. The debt is simply too large to be serviced.

As a growing number of analysts (including Chris) are predicting, Turd sees the replacement of the world's current monetary regimes as the endgame to this story. And he believes we are watching that endgame unfold in real-time now.

In this interview with Chris, Turd discusses his reasons why gold and silver offer the best prospect for preserving wealth through the coming devaluation of world currencies, despite his strong conviction that the markets for these metals are heavily price-manipulated.

Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher for Precious Metals

by Adam Taggart

Turd Ferguson is a funny guy.

But there's one thing this irreverent, acerbically goofball forecaster is stone-cold serious about: the need to build personal exposure to the precious metals.

For him, it's a straightforward mathematical certainty that the global economy must collapse under the weight of the excessive (and exponentially compounding) credit amassed over the past several decades. The debt is simply too large to be serviced.

As a growing number of analysts (including Chris) are predicting, Turd sees the replacement of the world's current monetary regimes as the endgame to this story. And he believes we are watching that endgame unfold in real-time now.

In this interview with Chris, Turd discusses his reasons why gold and silver offer the best prospect for preserving wealth through the coming devaluation of world currencies, despite his strong conviction that the markets for these metals are heavily price-manipulated.

Image | Eric Janszen: We Are Witnessing The Death of the Dollar

Eric Janszen: We Are Witnessing The Death of the Dollar

by Adam Taggart

What do you get when the producer of the world's reserve currency takes on too much debt? Nothing less than the end of the US Treasury-based monetary system.

So says Eric Janszen, economic and financial market analyst and proprietor of iTulip.com. In chronicling the decline of the global economy over the past decade, Eric has formulated a framework called the "Ka-POOM" theory, which endeavors to understand how the immense run-up in global debt will be resolved.

In short, it looks at the credit bubble that began in the early 1980's, started accelerating in 1995, and has now reached epic proportions. The amounts are so staggering at this stage that Eric believes it is too politically undesirable to let natural market adjustments clear them away — the magnitude of the deflationary pain this would create is simply unacceptable for politicians looking to get re-elected. The only other available option is to service these debts via a dramatically devalued currency. Hence the key role the Fed is playing today.

The Fed is at the epicenter of this process, intervening heavily to keep the natural corrective market forces at bay. In this, it has a dual strategy. The first is to keep asset prices high (i.e., fight asset deflation), which it is doing by keeping interest rates historically low. The second is to keep wage and commodity costs under control, which it primarily does via devaluing the currency (maintaining a "weak dollar").

And, of course, through its intervention, the Fed is doing all it can to keep the current financial system in place to perpetuate the process for as long as possible. The end result is a fundamental shift in risk from Wall Street to the taxpayer.

So the big question is: How long can this last? Is there a point at which confidence in the system breaks and market forces finally overwhelm the intervention?

Eric Janszen: We Are Witnessing The Death of the Dollar

by Adam Taggart

What do you get when the producer of the world's reserve currency takes on too much debt? Nothing less than the end of the US Treasury-based monetary system.

So says Eric Janszen, economic and financial market analyst and proprietor of iTulip.com. In chronicling the decline of the global economy over the past decade, Eric has formulated a framework called the "Ka-POOM" theory, which endeavors to understand how the immense run-up in global debt will be resolved.

In short, it looks at the credit bubble that began in the early 1980's, started accelerating in 1995, and has now reached epic proportions. The amounts are so staggering at this stage that Eric believes it is too politically undesirable to let natural market adjustments clear them away — the magnitude of the deflationary pain this would create is simply unacceptable for politicians looking to get re-elected. The only other available option is to service these debts via a dramatically devalued currency. Hence the key role the Fed is playing today.

The Fed is at the epicenter of this process, intervening heavily to keep the natural corrective market forces at bay. In this, it has a dual strategy. The first is to keep asset prices high (i.e., fight asset deflation), which it is doing by keeping interest rates historically low. The second is to keep wage and commodity costs under control, which it primarily does via devaluing the currency (maintaining a "weak dollar").

And, of course, through its intervention, the Fed is doing all it can to keep the current financial system in place to perpetuate the process for as long as possible. The end result is a fundamental shift in risk from Wall Street to the taxpayer.

So the big question is: How long can this last? Is there a point at which confidence in the system breaks and market forces finally overwhelm the intervention?

Image | Paul Brodsky: The Seeds of Our Destruction Were – And Still Are – Sown in the Bond Markets

Paul Brodsky: The Seeds of Our Destruction Were – And Still Are – Sown in the Bond Markets

by Adam Taggart

Paul Brodsky does not trust the bond markets. That position may seem strange coming from someone who has spent most of his professional career trading bonds, but it's precisely this insider knowledge that has led him to start directing investors to safer harbors.

In fact, he thinks our credit system is so far out of control that it will cause a massive — and largely unavoidable, at this point — devaluation of the US dollar (and most other fiat currencies, as well).

In our interview with Paul, we asked him to explain the reasons for his concern and to detail how he sees a bond market breakdown unfolding. At the heart of the matter is the run-up in overnight systemic repurchase agreements among banks that started in 1994, which goosed the ensuing credit-driven buying orgy in our economy and has left the system much more vulnerable to exogenous shocks as a result:

Paul Brodsky: The Seeds of Our Destruction Were – And Still Are – Sown in the Bond Markets

by Adam Taggart

Paul Brodsky does not trust the bond markets. That position may seem strange coming from someone who has spent most of his professional career trading bonds, but it's precisely this insider knowledge that has led him to start directing investors to safer harbors.

In fact, he thinks our credit system is so far out of control that it will cause a massive — and largely unavoidable, at this point — devaluation of the US dollar (and most other fiat currencies, as well).

In our interview with Paul, we asked him to explain the reasons for his concern and to detail how he sees a bond market breakdown unfolding. At the heart of the matter is the run-up in overnight systemic repurchase agreements among banks that started in 1994, which goosed the ensuing credit-driven buying orgy in our economy and has left the system much more vulnerable to exogenous shocks as a result:

Image | Carolyn Baker: Emotional Resilience Is Essential in Turbulent Times

Carolyn Baker: Emotional Resilience Is Essential in Turbulent Times

by Adam Taggart

Carolyn Baker, therapist and prominent advocate for culturing emotional preparedness in times of transition, looks to the future and sees a great many people at risk of unprecedented loss. Loss of jobs, loss of lifestyle, loss of wealth, loss of relationships – and quite possibly loss of life – as society becomes increasingly traumatized by secular economic slowdown and growing resource scarcity.

I have watched the Crash Course several times. So this is already happening dramatically and far more rapidly than anyone could have anticipated. Peak Oil, the end of money as we know it, escalating climate change – all of these will temper everything we do. This is the new normal, and there is no going back to the "old" normal. These drastic and daunting changes will invariably and unequivocally invoke enormous emotional responses in people, as they already are, in terms of fear, panic, anger, depression, despair, and in many cases off-the-charts addictions and suicides.

But Carolyn also sees unprecedented opportunity ahead for those who are mentally and emotionally prepared to meet the coming future.

What will determine who prospers and who doesn't? In her professional opinion, two things: meaning and purpose.

Carolyn Baker: Emotional Resilience Is Essential in Turbulent Times

by Adam Taggart

Carolyn Baker, therapist and prominent advocate for culturing emotional preparedness in times of transition, looks to the future and sees a great many people at risk of unprecedented loss. Loss of jobs, loss of lifestyle, loss of wealth, loss of relationships – and quite possibly loss of life – as society becomes increasingly traumatized by secular economic slowdown and growing resource scarcity.

I have watched the Crash Course several times. So this is already happening dramatically and far more rapidly than anyone could have anticipated. Peak Oil, the end of money as we know it, escalating climate change – all of these will temper everything we do. This is the new normal, and there is no going back to the "old" normal. These drastic and daunting changes will invariably and unequivocally invoke enormous emotional responses in people, as they already are, in terms of fear, panic, anger, depression, despair, and in many cases off-the-charts addictions and suicides.

But Carolyn also sees unprecedented opportunity ahead for those who are mentally and emotionally prepared to meet the coming future.

What will determine who prospers and who doesn't? In her professional opinion, two things: meaning and purpose.

Image | David Stockman: Blame the Fed!

David Stockman: Blame the Fed!

by Adam Taggart

David Stockman, former U.S. Representative and Director of the Office of Management and Budget under Reagan, does not mince words. He sees the monetary systems of the world coming apart.

How did we get here? He identifies the root cause as the intentional over-leveraging of world economies by central planners in a misguided effort to enjoy growth without consequence.

I blame it on the Fed. I blame it on the 1971 decision by Nixon to close the gold window and let the dollar float. Because out of that has evolved — or morphed — a central banking policy in the world that absorbs unlimited amounts of government debt. And so we went on what I call the "T-bill standard" or the "federal debt standard." And the other central banks of the emerging mercantilist Asian economies — Japan, Korea, and now, especially, the People’s Printing Press of China — have absorbed this massive emission of debt that otherwise would’ve created powerful negative consequences that would’ve forced politicians to act long ago. In other words, higher interest rates, pressure for inflationary monetary policy, and the actual appearance of price inflation. But because all the bonds on the margin were being absorbed by the central banks, we got away for twenty or twenty-five years with “deficits without tears.”

And he's just getting started. The only thing more impressive than Stockman's CV of insider roles in public economics and private finance is his talent for colorful metaphor.

David Stockman: Blame the Fed!

by Adam Taggart

David Stockman, former U.S. Representative and Director of the Office of Management and Budget under Reagan, does not mince words. He sees the monetary systems of the world coming apart.

How did we get here? He identifies the root cause as the intentional over-leveraging of world economies by central planners in a misguided effort to enjoy growth without consequence.

I blame it on the Fed. I blame it on the 1971 decision by Nixon to close the gold window and let the dollar float. Because out of that has evolved — or morphed — a central banking policy in the world that absorbs unlimited amounts of government debt. And so we went on what I call the "T-bill standard" or the "federal debt standard." And the other central banks of the emerging mercantilist Asian economies — Japan, Korea, and now, especially, the People’s Printing Press of China — have absorbed this massive emission of debt that otherwise would’ve created powerful negative consequences that would’ve forced politicians to act long ago. In other words, higher interest rates, pressure for inflationary monetary policy, and the actual appearance of price inflation. But because all the bonds on the margin were being absorbed by the central banks, we got away for twenty or twenty-five years with “deficits without tears.”

And he's just getting started. The only thing more impressive than Stockman's CV of insider roles in public economics and private finance is his talent for colorful metaphor.

Image | Rob Hopkins: Making the Red Pill Taste Good

Rob Hopkins: Making the Red Pill Taste Good

by Adam Taggart

Rob Hopkins is a true pioneer of the movement to intelligently prepare and adapt society for entering a post-Peak-Oil future. His brainchild, Transition Towns, has been one of the most successful initiatives to date in inspiring hundreds of cities, towns, and communities around the globe towards using local cooperation and interdependence to shrink their ecological footprints.

Many readers on our site lament the inertia or hostility we all frequently encounter when trying to 'wake up' family, friends, and neighbors to the warning bells we see on the economic, energy, and environmental fronts. Chris and I often get asked for advice on how to make the red pill 'tasty' for the uninitiated. So we look at the success Rob's model is having at spurring individuals and communities to action, and ask him: What's your secret?

In short, it's about making Transition feel "more like a party than a protest march." Make it personal to the participants. Focus on celebrating the local benefits and empowerment it produces. As Rob says, the core Transition principles are "not about taking people back to something worse than today; they are a step forward. They are about building resilience, bringing people together, giving them the sense that anything is possible in such a way that everybody benefits."

Rob Hopkins: Making the Red Pill Taste Good

by Adam Taggart

Rob Hopkins is a true pioneer of the movement to intelligently prepare and adapt society for entering a post-Peak-Oil future. His brainchild, Transition Towns, has been one of the most successful initiatives to date in inspiring hundreds of cities, towns, and communities around the globe towards using local cooperation and interdependence to shrink their ecological footprints.

Many readers on our site lament the inertia or hostility we all frequently encounter when trying to 'wake up' family, friends, and neighbors to the warning bells we see on the economic, energy, and environmental fronts. Chris and I often get asked for advice on how to make the red pill 'tasty' for the uninitiated. So we look at the success Rob's model is having at spurring individuals and communities to action, and ask him: What's your secret?

In short, it's about making Transition feel "more like a party than a protest march." Make it personal to the participants. Focus on celebrating the local benefits and empowerment it produces. As Rob says, the core Transition principles are "not about taking people back to something worse than today; they are a step forward. They are about building resilience, bringing people together, giving them the sense that anything is possible in such a way that everybody benefits."

Image | Joel Salatin: How to Prepare for A Future Increasingly Defined By Localized Food & Energy

Joel Salatin: How to Prepare for A Future Increasingly Defined By Localized Food & Energy

by Chris Martenson

Joel Salatin, proprietor of Polyface Farms and highly-visible champion of sustainable farming, thinks modern humans have become so far removed from a natural connection to the food they eat that we no longer have a true understanding of what "normal" food is.

The rise of Big Ag and factory farming over the past century has conditioned us to treat food mechanically (as something to be recoded and retooled) vs. biologically. And we don't realize that for all our industrialization and optimization, we're actually getting less yield and less nutrition than natural-based processes can offer.

Whether we like it or not, the arrival of Peak Oil is going to force us to realize that our heavily-energy intensive practices can't continue at their current scale. And with world population still increasing exponentially, we'll need to find other, more sustainable ways of growing our food.

Joel Salatin: How to Prepare for A Future Increasingly Defined By Localized Food & Energy

by Chris Martenson

Joel Salatin, proprietor of Polyface Farms and highly-visible champion of sustainable farming, thinks modern humans have become so far removed from a natural connection to the food they eat that we no longer have a true understanding of what "normal" food is.

The rise of Big Ag and factory farming over the past century has conditioned us to treat food mechanically (as something to be recoded and retooled) vs. biologically. And we don't realize that for all our industrialization and optimization, we're actually getting less yield and less nutrition than natural-based processes can offer.

Whether we like it or not, the arrival of Peak Oil is going to force us to realize that our heavily-energy intensive practices can't continue at their current scale. And with world population still increasing exponentially, we'll need to find other, more sustainable ways of growing our food.

Image | Charles Hugh Smith: Why Local Enterprise Is The Solution

Charles Hugh Smith: Why Local Enterprise Is The Solution

by Adam Taggart

A growing number of individuals believe our economic and societal status quo is defined by unsustainable addiction to cheap oil and ever increasing debt. With that viewpoint, it's hard not to see a hard takedown of our national standard of living in the future. Even harder to answer is: what do you do about it?

Charles Hugh Smith, proprietor of the esteemed weblog OfTwoMinds.com, sees the path to future prosperity in removing capital from the Wall Street machine and investing it into local enterprise within the community in which you live.

"Enterprise is completely possible in an era of declining resource consumption. In other words, just because we have to use less, doesn’t mean that there is no opportunity for investing in enterprise. I think enterprise and investing in fact, are the solution. And if we withdraw our money from Wall Street and put it to use in our own communities, to the benefit of our own income streams, then I think that things happen."

Charles Hugh Smith: Why Local Enterprise Is The Solution

by Adam Taggart

A growing number of individuals believe our economic and societal status quo is defined by unsustainable addiction to cheap oil and ever increasing debt. With that viewpoint, it's hard not to see a hard takedown of our national standard of living in the future. Even harder to answer is: what do you do about it?

Charles Hugh Smith, proprietor of the esteemed weblog OfTwoMinds.com, sees the path to future prosperity in removing capital from the Wall Street machine and investing it into local enterprise within the community in which you live.

"Enterprise is completely possible in an era of declining resource consumption. In other words, just because we have to use less, doesn’t mean that there is no opportunity for investing in enterprise. I think enterprise and investing in fact, are the solution. And if we withdraw our money from Wall Street and put it to use in our own communities, to the benefit of our own income streams, then I think that things happen."

Image | Gold Surging: Buy Mining Stocks? Not So Fast, Says Frank Barbera

Gold Surging: Buy Mining Stocks? Not So Fast, Says Frank Barbera

by Adam Taggart

With the astonishing recent price rise in gold, many investors are asking themselves: Is now the time to move capital into mining stocks?

Frank Barbera, respected precious metal mining stock expert and editor of the Gold Stock Technician newsletter, has a viewpoint that will likely surprise many. While extremely bullish in the longer term, Frank sees too many risks in the near term and advises smart money to wait.

He cautions:

"I’ve been watching the mining stocks since 1983, so a fair amount of time that I spent watching the group. I have a wide variety of unique technical indicators on the sector, and as I started to see the stock market topping out over the last two to three weeks, I wrote my readers a note to say the mining stocks are also very overbought. Mid-July we saw one of the second most overbought readings on the XAU in five years. And that kind of reading is a big warning, and so I’m not surprised to see them going down. The last letter I put out, I told subscribers that I thought the mining stocks could get cut in half in here, and I’m going to stick with that. I think we’re looking at a 30 to 50 percent decline over the next six months.

Gold Surging: Buy Mining Stocks? Not So Fast, Says Frank Barbera

by Adam Taggart

With the astonishing recent price rise in gold, many investors are asking themselves: Is now the time to move capital into mining stocks?

Frank Barbera, respected precious metal mining stock expert and editor of the Gold Stock Technician newsletter, has a viewpoint that will likely surprise many. While extremely bullish in the longer term, Frank sees too many risks in the near term and advises smart money to wait.

He cautions:

"I’ve been watching the mining stocks since 1983, so a fair amount of time that I spent watching the group. I have a wide variety of unique technical indicators on the sector, and as I started to see the stock market topping out over the last two to three weeks, I wrote my readers a note to say the mining stocks are also very overbought. Mid-July we saw one of the second most overbought readings on the XAU in five years. And that kind of reading is a big warning, and so I’m not surprised to see them going down. The last letter I put out, I told subscribers that I thought the mining stocks could get cut in half in here, and I’m going to stick with that. I think we’re looking at a 30 to 50 percent decline over the next six months.

Image | Nate Hagens: We’re Not Facing a Shortage of Energy, But a Longage of Expectations

Nate Hagens: We’re Not Facing a Shortage of Energy, But a Longage of Expectations

by Adam Taggart

This week's interview is one of the most important discussions we've had to date on energy, its supply/demand dynamics, and the tremendous impact it has on our economic and social identity. It is clear now that we are staring at a future of declining output at a time when the world is demanding an ever-increasing amount.

Nate Hagens, former editor of the respected energy blog, The Oil Drum, gives a fact-packed update on where we are on the Peak Oil timeline. But interestingly, he explains how he sees the core issue as less about the actual amount of energy available to the world and more about our assumptions about how much we really need:

"We’re not really facing a shortage of energy; we’re facing a longage of expectations. And the sooner that we as individuals or a nation recognize that the future is going to see much lower consumption than today and prepare for that, psychological resilience is going to be really important, because if no one is psychologically prepared, people are going to freak out when some of these freedoms start to go away.

Nate Hagens: We’re Not Facing a Shortage of Energy, But a Longage of Expectations

by Adam Taggart

This week's interview is one of the most important discussions we've had to date on energy, its supply/demand dynamics, and the tremendous impact it has on our economic and social identity. It is clear now that we are staring at a future of declining output at a time when the world is demanding an ever-increasing amount.

Nate Hagens, former editor of the respected energy blog, The Oil Drum, gives a fact-packed update on where we are on the Peak Oil timeline. But interestingly, he explains how he sees the core issue as less about the actual amount of energy available to the world and more about our assumptions about how much we really need:

"We’re not really facing a shortage of energy; we’re facing a longage of expectations. And the sooner that we as individuals or a nation recognize that the future is going to see much lower consumption than today and prepare for that, psychological resilience is going to be really important, because if no one is psychologically prepared, people are going to freak out when some of these freedoms start to go away.

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