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Image | James Howard Kunstler: It’s Too Late for Solutions

James Howard Kunstler: It’s Too Late for Solutions

by Chris Martenson

Author and social critic James Howard Kunstler has been one of the earliest, most direct, and most articulate voices to warn of the consequences — economic and otherwise — of modern society's profligate wasting of the resources that underlie its growth.

In his new book, Too Much Magic, Jim attacks the wishful thinking dominant today that with a little more growth, a little more energy, a little more technology — a little more magic — we'll somehow sail past our current tribulations without having to change our behavior.

Such self-delusion is particularly dangerous because it is preventing us from taking intelligent, constructive action at the national level when the clock is fast ticking out of our favor. In fact, Jim claims that we are past the state where solutions are possible. Instead, we need a response plan to help us best brace for the impact of the coming consequences. And we need it fast.

James Howard Kunstler: It’s Too Late for Solutions

by Chris Martenson

Author and social critic James Howard Kunstler has been one of the earliest, most direct, and most articulate voices to warn of the consequences — economic and otherwise — of modern society's profligate wasting of the resources that underlie its growth.

In his new book, Too Much Magic, Jim attacks the wishful thinking dominant today that with a little more growth, a little more energy, a little more technology — a little more magic — we'll somehow sail past our current tribulations without having to change our behavior.

Such self-delusion is particularly dangerous because it is preventing us from taking intelligent, constructive action at the national level when the clock is fast ticking out of our favor. In fact, Jim claims that we are past the state where solutions are possible. Instead, we need a response plan to help us best brace for the impact of the coming consequences. And we need it fast.

Image | Paul Brodsky: Central Banks are Nearing the ‘Inflate or Die’ Stage

Paul Brodsky: Central Banks are Nearing the ‘Inflate or Die’ Stage

by Chris Martenson

"It's impossible to have a political solution to a balance sheet problem" says Paul Brodsky, bond market expert and co-founder of QB Asset Management.

The world has simply gotten itself into too much debt. There are creditors that expect to be paid, and debtors that are having an increasingly difficult time making their coupon payments. No amount of political or policy intervention is going to change that reality. (Unless a global "debt jubilee" transpires, which Paul thinks is unlikely).

Looking at the global monetary base, Paul sees it dwarfed by the staggering amount of debts that need to be repaid or serviced. The reckless use of leverage has resulted in a chasm between total credit and the money that can service it.

So how will this debt overhang be resolved?

Central bank money printing — and lots of it — thinks Paul.

Paul Brodsky: Central Banks are Nearing the ‘Inflate or Die’ Stage

by Chris Martenson

"It's impossible to have a political solution to a balance sheet problem" says Paul Brodsky, bond market expert and co-founder of QB Asset Management.

The world has simply gotten itself into too much debt. There are creditors that expect to be paid, and debtors that are having an increasingly difficult time making their coupon payments. No amount of political or policy intervention is going to change that reality. (Unless a global "debt jubilee" transpires, which Paul thinks is unlikely).

Looking at the global monetary base, Paul sees it dwarfed by the staggering amount of debts that need to be repaid or serviced. The reckless use of leverage has resulted in a chasm between total credit and the money that can service it.

So how will this debt overhang be resolved?

Central bank money printing — and lots of it — thinks Paul.

Image | Joe Saluzzi: HFT Parasites are Killing the Market Host

Joe Saluzzi: HFT Parasites are Killing the Market Host

by Chris Martenson

Joe Saluzzi, expert on algorithmic trading — also known as high-frequency trading, or HFT — returns as a guest this week to explain how the players behind this machine-driven process act as parasites that are destroying our financial markets (and, increasingly, even themselves).

Since Joe first spoke with us last year, HFT firms have only increased in size and share of market activity. Here are some staggering statistics on how influential they have become:

HTFs make up between 50-70% of the volume seen across market exchanges today.
2% of the traders on many exchanges (HFTs, specifically) represent 80% of the volume.
A single large HFT firm (referred to as a Direct Market Maker) can account for 10%+ of a market's volume on a given day
Large HFT firms make between $8 to $21 billion a year.
HFT trades occur in milliseconds (i.e., a small fraction of the time it takes your eye to blink).

With such scale, speed, and profitability, HFTs have turned the market away from being an efficient price-setting mechanism and perverted it into a casino where the clientele of human investors gets fleeced.

Joe Saluzzi: HFT Parasites are Killing the Market Host

by Chris Martenson

Joe Saluzzi, expert on algorithmic trading — also known as high-frequency trading, or HFT — returns as a guest this week to explain how the players behind this machine-driven process act as parasites that are destroying our financial markets (and, increasingly, even themselves).

Since Joe first spoke with us last year, HFT firms have only increased in size and share of market activity. Here are some staggering statistics on how influential they have become:

HTFs make up between 50-70% of the volume seen across market exchanges today.
2% of the traders on many exchanges (HFTs, specifically) represent 80% of the volume.
A single large HFT firm (referred to as a Direct Market Maker) can account for 10%+ of a market's volume on a given day
Large HFT firms make between $8 to $21 billion a year.
HFT trades occur in milliseconds (i.e., a small fraction of the time it takes your eye to blink).

With such scale, speed, and profitability, HFTs have turned the market away from being an efficient price-setting mechanism and perverted it into a casino where the clientele of human investors gets fleeced.

Image | Off the Cuff: It’s Becoming Every Man for Himself

Off the Cuff: It’s Becoming Every Man for Himself

PREVIEW

by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris lean into:

Signs of fragmentation in Europe
- Increasingly political leaders jettisoning Eurozone collectivism for what's best for their own country
The ticking pension bomb
- US states, municipalities, and cities face unmeetable obligations
Fraud at the core
- The Barclays LIBOR-fixing scandal shows how manipulated markets really are

They say that when the going gets tough, you learn what a person's true nature is. If that's so, we're learning that the bloviating European leaders are clueless opportunists with no real love or loyalty for the centralized European vision they've been selling to their populace for over a decade. Similarly, US public pension administrators and public officials are craven liars, still unwilling to admit to pensioners that poor stewardship, bad math, and generationally low interest rates have made it impossible to meet their actuarial commitments. Increasingly — and as epitomized by the recently- fraudulent fixing of the LIBOR market — all players are simply out to secure what they can for themselves before the system breaks.

Off the Cuff: It’s Becoming Every Man for Himself

PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris lean into:

Signs of fragmentation in Europe
- Increasingly political leaders jettisoning Eurozone collectivism for what's best for their own country
The ticking pension bomb
- US states, municipalities, and cities face unmeetable obligations
Fraud at the core
- The Barclays LIBOR-fixing scandal shows how manipulated markets really are

They say that when the going gets tough, you learn what a person's true nature is. If that's so, we're learning that the bloviating European leaders are clueless opportunists with no real love or loyalty for the centralized European vision they've been selling to their populace for over a decade. Similarly, US public pension administrators and public officials are craven liars, still unwilling to admit to pensioners that poor stewardship, bad math, and generationally low interest rates have made it impossible to meet their actuarial commitments. Increasingly — and as epitomized by the recently- fraudulent fixing of the LIBOR market — all players are simply out to secure what they can for themselves before the system breaks.

Image | Senator Bill Bradley: Lack of Long-Range Planning Is Putting Our Future at Risk

Senator Bill Bradley: Lack of Long-Range Planning Is Putting Our Future at Risk

by Chris Martenson

Former US Senator Bill Bradley believes a better tomorrow is within our grasp, despite the economic pain the middle class is experiencing today.

He wrote his new book We Can All Do Better to address the growing despondency and resentment he sees among Americans. With the right vision, leadership, and civic participation, he believes we can work our way back to prosperity and growth.

Chris was honored and excited to speak with the former Senator, particularly to uncover what awareness there is of the Three Es among our top political leaders. Not surprisingly for a longtime insider, Senator Bradley looks through the lens of working within the current system – i.e., if we can fix its shortcomings, it will solve our problems. Potential structural limits to growth, such as Peak Oil, are less bright on the radar.

There is much to learn here about what our Congressional leaders are focused on and what they are not. Listeners will undoubtly find points to agree with, and possibly others out-of-alignment with the concerns presented in the Crash Course. We expect an animated discussion to ensue in the Comments section below.

We take it as a good sign that widely-known veteran politicians such as Senator Bradley are increasingly standing up to admit "there is a problem" — that's the first step towards taking corrective action. And we're very thankful of the time the Senator has given to speak to our community.

Senator Bill Bradley: Lack of Long-Range Planning Is Putting Our Future at Risk

by Chris Martenson

Former US Senator Bill Bradley believes a better tomorrow is within our grasp, despite the economic pain the middle class is experiencing today.

He wrote his new book We Can All Do Better to address the growing despondency and resentment he sees among Americans. With the right vision, leadership, and civic participation, he believes we can work our way back to prosperity and growth.

Chris was honored and excited to speak with the former Senator, particularly to uncover what awareness there is of the Three Es among our top political leaders. Not surprisingly for a longtime insider, Senator Bradley looks through the lens of working within the current system – i.e., if we can fix its shortcomings, it will solve our problems. Potential structural limits to growth, such as Peak Oil, are less bright on the radar.

There is much to learn here about what our Congressional leaders are focused on and what they are not. Listeners will undoubtly find points to agree with, and possibly others out-of-alignment with the concerns presented in the Crash Course. We expect an animated discussion to ensue in the Comments section below.

We take it as a good sign that widely-known veteran politicians such as Senator Bradley are increasingly standing up to admit "there is a problem" — that's the first step towards taking corrective action. And we're very thankful of the time the Senator has given to speak to our community.

Image | Jim Puplava: Oil Is the New Federal Funds Rate

Jim Puplava: Oil Is the New Federal Funds Rate

by Chris Martenson

Jim Puplava has made a decades-long career of interviewing hundreds of notable experts on the economy, energy, precious metals, geopolitics, agriculture, and other sectors that impact our future.

The outlook he has developed as a result of all this input is less than sanguine. Jim concludes that economic growth will be constrained both by world governments' chronic addiction to spending more revenue than they take in and by the systemically rising costs of fossil-fuel-driven energy.

In terms of growth, he sees political leadership becoming less and less relevant in its ability to effect outcomes. In fact, he declares the price of oil as now being more influential in stimulating or depressing sovereign economies than central bank interest rates. In his words, "Oil is the new Federal Funds rate."

Jim Puplava: Oil Is the New Federal Funds Rate

by Chris Martenson

Jim Puplava has made a decades-long career of interviewing hundreds of notable experts on the economy, energy, precious metals, geopolitics, agriculture, and other sectors that impact our future.

The outlook he has developed as a result of all this input is less than sanguine. Jim concludes that economic growth will be constrained both by world governments' chronic addiction to spending more revenue than they take in and by the systemically rising costs of fossil-fuel-driven energy.

In terms of growth, he sees political leadership becoming less and less relevant in its ability to effect outcomes. In fact, he declares the price of oil as now being more influential in stimulating or depressing sovereign economies than central bank interest rates. In his words, "Oil is the new Federal Funds rate."

Image | Steve Keen: Why 2012 is Shaping Up to be a Particularly Ugly Year

Steve Keen: Why 2012 is Shaping Up to be a Particularly Ugly Year

by Chris Martenson

At the high level, our global economic plight is quite simple to understand says noted Australian deflationist Steve Keen.

Banks began lending money at a faster rate than the global economy grew, and we're now at the turning point where we simply have run out of new borrowers for the ever-growing debt the system has become addicted to.

Once borrowers start eschewing rather than seeking debt, asset prices begin to fall — which in turn makes these same people want to liquidate their holdings, which puts further downward pressure on asset prices:

Steve Keen: Why 2012 is Shaping Up to be a Particularly Ugly Year

by Chris Martenson

At the high level, our global economic plight is quite simple to understand says noted Australian deflationist Steve Keen.

Banks began lending money at a faster rate than the global economy grew, and we're now at the turning point where we simply have run out of new borrowers for the ever-growing debt the system has become addicted to.

Once borrowers start eschewing rather than seeking debt, asset prices begin to fall — which in turn makes these same people want to liquidate their holdings, which puts further downward pressure on asset prices:

Image | Jorgen Randers: Our Species’ Biggest Risk is Our Lack of Coherent Long-Term Decision Making

Jorgen Randers: Our Species’ Biggest Risk is Our Lack of Coherent Long-Term Decision Making

by Chris Martenson

Forty years ago, a group of researchers at MIT ran a study to address the question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of a finite planet. That study became the book Limits to Growth.

It should have been a starting point for a critical discussion at the national – or even global – level. It could have led to the birthing of many practical and then-implementable initiatives that mighthave brought our unsustainable demographic, industrial, and consumptive behavior under better control. But sadly, the book instead became a lightning rod for controversy. And decades later, the issues it warned of loom larger than ever.

In this interview, Chris discusses our collective failure to act on this book's message with Jorgen Randers, one of the authors of Limits to Growth and Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update as well as a new book, 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years.

While there are some differences in opinion between Jorgen and Chris, particularly on the acuteness of our resource predicament, both agree that continuing to pursue the status quo will result in a poorer quality of life for most of the world's denizens. We increasingly appear to be facing a future shaped either by design or disaster, and unless we actively decide to intelligently change our behavior, the latter outcome will prevail.

Jorgen Randers: Our Species’ Biggest Risk is Our Lack of Coherent Long-Term Decision Making

by Chris Martenson

Forty years ago, a group of researchers at MIT ran a study to address the question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of a finite planet. That study became the book Limits to Growth.

It should have been a starting point for a critical discussion at the national – or even global – level. It could have led to the birthing of many practical and then-implementable initiatives that mighthave brought our unsustainable demographic, industrial, and consumptive behavior under better control. But sadly, the book instead became a lightning rod for controversy. And decades later, the issues it warned of loom larger than ever.

In this interview, Chris discusses our collective failure to act on this book's message with Jorgen Randers, one of the authors of Limits to Growth and Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update as well as a new book, 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years.

While there are some differences in opinion between Jorgen and Chris, particularly on the acuteness of our resource predicament, both agree that continuing to pursue the status quo will result in a poorer quality of life for most of the world's denizens. We increasingly appear to be facing a future shaped either by design or disaster, and unless we actively decide to intelligently change our behavior, the latter outcome will prevail.

Image | Alasdair Macleod: All Roads in Europe Lead to Gold

Alasdair Macleod: All Roads in Europe Lead to Gold

by Chris Martenson

This week we bring back Alasdair Macleod, publisher of FinanceAndEconomics.org, because, as he puts it, "every horror that we discussed last time we spoke is coming about." This is especially scary since our previous conversation with Alasdair was less than three weeks ago…

Today's interview continues building on his excellent synopsis from last month that detailed the origins of the Eurozone crisis. The fundamental shortcomings warned of at the euro's creation in 1997, combined with the excessive sovereign debts run up since then, have finally expressed themselves at a scale too large to be contained any longer.

Today, Alasdair details in depth the huge and serious challenges facing Greece and the major Eurozone countries and the likely impacts of the fast-dwindling options left remaining.

He sees no happy ending to this story, no outcome in which serious pain and permanent behavior change can be avoided. And for those looking for shelter from the unfolding economic storm, he sees few options besides the precious metals (which he believes are severely underpriced at the moment):

Alasdair Macleod: All Roads in Europe Lead to Gold

by Chris Martenson

This week we bring back Alasdair Macleod, publisher of FinanceAndEconomics.org, because, as he puts it, "every horror that we discussed last time we spoke is coming about." This is especially scary since our previous conversation with Alasdair was less than three weeks ago…

Today's interview continues building on his excellent synopsis from last month that detailed the origins of the Eurozone crisis. The fundamental shortcomings warned of at the euro's creation in 1997, combined with the excessive sovereign debts run up since then, have finally expressed themselves at a scale too large to be contained any longer.

Today, Alasdair details in depth the huge and serious challenges facing Greece and the major Eurozone countries and the likely impacts of the fast-dwindling options left remaining.

He sees no happy ending to this story, no outcome in which serious pain and permanent behavior change can be avoided. And for those looking for shelter from the unfolding economic storm, he sees few options besides the precious metals (which he believes are severely underpriced at the moment):

Image | Tom Murphy: Time to Be Honest With Ourselves About Our Looming Energy Risks

Tom Murphy: Time to Be Honest With Ourselves About Our Looming Energy Risks

by Chris Martenson

I want to take the lowest risk approach to the future. So much is riding on it.

Personally I feel that the scientific progress we have made over the last few hundred years is astounding. I don’t want to lose that. I think that is a gift to the future, and I don’t want to run the risk of a collapse that could destroy all that we have.

Even if you think the collapse is a low probability – let’s say it's 5%, 10% probability – it is an asymmetric risk. The downsides of not treating it seriously are huge.

I mean, you buy fire insurance for your house, even if it is a 0.1% probability that your house will burn down in your lifetime. But the consequences are so negative that you do it. And when you are talking about the accomplishments of all civilization, you need to buy insurance and treat that with the respect it deserves.

Tom Murphy, associate professor of physics at the University of California, San Diego, has mapped the distance between the earth and the moon to within a millimeter and built instruments to study colliding galaxies. We feel comfortable saying he's a pretty smart guy as well as an optimist about what human ingenuity and technology can do for the advancement of society.

In 2004, he became intrigued with the global energy situation and brought his disciplined, empirical approach to bear. He set out to determine which new sources were going to pick up the slack once fossil fuels began becoming scarce. Looking back, he says the theme underlying his findings was "disappointment."

The math showed him that there simply will not be nearly enough BTU yield from alternative energy sources to meet the rising global demand. In fact, if anything, his investigation made him realize how few minds today are truly aware of the extraordinary energy throughput we are getting from fossil fuels.

Tom Murphy: Time to Be Honest With Ourselves About Our Looming Energy Risks

by Chris Martenson

I want to take the lowest risk approach to the future. So much is riding on it.

Personally I feel that the scientific progress we have made over the last few hundred years is astounding. I don’t want to lose that. I think that is a gift to the future, and I don’t want to run the risk of a collapse that could destroy all that we have.

Even if you think the collapse is a low probability – let’s say it's 5%, 10% probability – it is an asymmetric risk. The downsides of not treating it seriously are huge.

I mean, you buy fire insurance for your house, even if it is a 0.1% probability that your house will burn down in your lifetime. But the consequences are so negative that you do it. And when you are talking about the accomplishments of all civilization, you need to buy insurance and treat that with the respect it deserves.

Tom Murphy, associate professor of physics at the University of California, San Diego, has mapped the distance between the earth and the moon to within a millimeter and built instruments to study colliding galaxies. We feel comfortable saying he's a pretty smart guy as well as an optimist about what human ingenuity and technology can do for the advancement of society.

In 2004, he became intrigued with the global energy situation and brought his disciplined, empirical approach to bear. He set out to determine which new sources were going to pick up the slack once fossil fuels began becoming scarce. Looking back, he says the theme underlying his findings was "disappointment."

The math showed him that there simply will not be nearly enough BTU yield from alternative energy sources to meet the rising global demand. In fact, if anything, his investigation made him realize how few minds today are truly aware of the extraordinary energy throughput we are getting from fossil fuels.

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Once again I am so grateful and appreciative to Chris (@cmartenson) for sorting through this horrendous Covid deception early on.
This allowed me to avoid the shot myself, self treat with ivermectin, zinc, vitamin-D and quercetin, stop wearing a mask when faced with a COVID positive patient, as well as making post on my facebook ER doctors groups that...

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