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Federal Reserve

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The 6 Factors
    • Rising inequality
    • Reversion to the mean
    • Cost overages
    • Diminishing returns
    • Misleading measurement
    • Expertise mismatch
  • Why the 'success' of the Federal Reserve and other world central banks is ultimately dooming them to failure

If you have not yet read Why Our Central Planners Are Breeding Failure available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined a variety of reasons why the apparent success of Keynesian monetary and fiscal policy may be transitional and brief rather than permanent.

Here in Part 2, we delve into the six other dynamics that make success destabilizing.

Rising Inequality—Perceived and Real

The highly touted “recovery” has been highly uneven in its distribution. The benefits of rising income and wealth have flowed disproportionately to the top 5%, 1% and even 1/10th of 1%.  Those who didn't make it onto the limited-seating Recovery Bus feel the gap between the prospects and wealth of the top tier and their own wealth and prospects widening. Indeed, psychological studies find that we assess our wealth and social position not by our actual material prosperity, but by the narrowing or widening of the perceived wealth gap with our peers.

This is precisely the situation in the U.S. and China. Both economies are supposedly expanding smartly, but the gains are concentrated in a relative few hands; the Rising Prosperity Bus has few seats.  The vast majority perceive themselves as being left behind, and that is highly…

The 6 Reasons The Next Economic Rescue Will Fail
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The 6 Factors
    • Rising inequality
    • Reversion to the mean
    • Cost overages
    • Diminishing returns
    • Misleading measurement
    • Expertise mismatch
  • Why the 'success' of the Federal Reserve and other world central banks is ultimately dooming them to failure

If you have not yet read Why Our Central Planners Are Breeding Failure available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined a variety of reasons why the apparent success of Keynesian monetary and fiscal policy may be transitional and brief rather than permanent.

Here in Part 2, we delve into the six other dynamics that make success destabilizing.

Rising Inequality—Perceived and Real

The highly touted “recovery” has been highly uneven in its distribution. The benefits of rising income and wealth have flowed disproportionately to the top 5%, 1% and even 1/10th of 1%.  Those who didn't make it onto the limited-seating Recovery Bus feel the gap between the prospects and wealth of the top tier and their own wealth and prospects widening. Indeed, psychological studies find that we assess our wealth and social position not by our actual material prosperity, but by the narrowing or widening of the perceived wealth gap with our peers.

This is precisely the situation in the U.S. and China. Both economies are supposedly expanding smartly, but the gains are concentrated in a relative few hands; the Rising Prosperity Bus has few seats.  The vast majority perceive themselves as being left behind, and that is highly…

by charleshughsmith

In early September, I made the case for a rising U.S. dollar. Since then the dollar has continued its advance, and is now breaking out of a downtrend stretching back to 2005—and by some accounts, to 1985.

So what does this mean for the global economy?

 

The Consequences of a Strengthening US Dollar
by charleshughsmith

In early September, I made the case for a rising U.S. dollar. Since then the dollar has continued its advance, and is now breaking out of a downtrend stretching back to 2005—and by some accounts, to 1985.

So what does this mean for the global economy?

 

by Chris Martenson

John Hussman is highly respected for his prodigious use of data and adherence to what it tells him about the state of the financial markets. His regular weekly market commentary is widely regarded as one of the best-researched, best-articulated publications available to money managers.

John's public appearances are rare, so we're especially grateful he made time to speak with us yesterday about the precarious state in which he sees global markets. Based on historical norms and averages, he calculates that the ZIRP and QE policies of the Fed and other world central banks have led to an overvaluation in the stock market where prices are 2 times higher than they should be.

John Hussman: The Stock Market Is Overvalued By 100%
by Chris Martenson

John Hussman is highly respected for his prodigious use of data and adherence to what it tells him about the state of the financial markets. His regular weekly market commentary is widely regarded as one of the best-researched, best-articulated publications available to money managers.

John's public appearances are rare, so we're especially grateful he made time to speak with us yesterday about the precarious state in which he sees global markets. Based on historical norms and averages, he calculates that the ZIRP and QE policies of the Fed and other world central banks have led to an overvaluation in the stock market where prices are 2 times higher than they should be.

by Chris Martenson

The second part of our interview with John Hussman is available here for Peak Prosperity's enrolled members.

If you've not yet listened to Part 1, click here to do so.

In Part 2 of the interview, John provides more specificity around his valuation methodology, and how he sees things playing out from here in the financial markets. 

To access Part 2 of this podcast, simply click the yellow button to enroll.

 

John Hussman Podcast – Part 2
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

The second part of our interview with John Hussman is available here for Peak Prosperity's enrolled members.

If you've not yet listened to Part 1, click here to do so.

In Part 2 of the interview, John provides more specificity around his valuation methodology, and how he sees things playing out from here in the financial markets. 

To access Part 2 of this podcast, simply click the yellow button to enroll.

 

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