Federal Reserve
by
Chris Martenson
Over the past decade, we've been told that inflation has been tame — actually below the target the Federal Reserve would like to see. But if that's true, then why does the average household find it harder and harder to get by?
The ugly reality is that the true annual cost of living is far outpacing the government's reported inflation rate. By nearly 10x in many parts of the country.
This week, we welcome Ed Butowsky, developer of the Chapwood Index, to the program. His index is a 'real world' measure of how prices are increasing much faster than the wages of the 99% can afford.
Ed Butowsky: Calculating The True Cost of Living Increase
by Chris MartensonOver the past decade, we've been told that inflation has been tame — actually below the target the Federal Reserve would like to see. But if that's true, then why does the average household find it harder and harder to get by?
The ugly reality is that the true annual cost of living is far outpacing the government's reported inflation rate. By nearly 10x in many parts of the country.
This week, we welcome Ed Butowsky, developer of the Chapwood Index, to the program. His index is a 'real world' measure of how prices are increasing much faster than the wages of the 99% can afford.
by
Chris Martenson
Given the brutal start to the markets in the first three weeks of 2016, we thought it a good time to check in with the team at New Harbor Financial. We have had them on our podcast periodically over the past years as the market churned to ever new highs, and have always appreciated their skepticism of these liquidity-driven ""markets"" as well as their unwavering commitment to risk management should the party in stocks end suddenly.
So, how is their risk-managed approach faring now that the S&P 500 has suddenly dropped 8% since Christmas? Quite well. Their general portfolio is flat for the year so far — evidence that caution, prudence and hedging can indeed preserve capital during market downdrafts.
We've invited the New Harbor team back on this week to hear their latest assessment on the markets, as well as how they're approaching their portfolio positioning moving forward.
New Harbor: A Time For Staying Out Of Harms Way
by Chris MartensonGiven the brutal start to the markets in the first three weeks of 2016, we thought it a good time to check in with the team at New Harbor Financial. We have had them on our podcast periodically over the past years as the market churned to ever new highs, and have always appreciated their skepticism of these liquidity-driven ""markets"" as well as their unwavering commitment to risk management should the party in stocks end suddenly.
So, how is their risk-managed approach faring now that the S&P 500 has suddenly dropped 8% since Christmas? Quite well. Their general portfolio is flat for the year so far — evidence that caution, prudence and hedging can indeed preserve capital during market downdrafts.
We've invited the New Harbor team back on this week to hear their latest assessment on the markets, as well as how they're approaching their portfolio positioning moving forward.
by
Chris Martenson
As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.
Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.
If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering: What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis?
The Deflation Monster Has Arrived
by Chris MartensonAs we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.
Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.
If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering: What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis?
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- There are too many signs of deflation to deny it's winning the day
- Why China's weakening will accelerate the global economy's decent
- Why this next crisis will be worse than 2008
- What will it look like if things really get out of control (how bad could things get?)
- The best investments to be making now, before the rout
If you have not yet read The Deflation Monster Has Arrived, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Too Many Warning Signs To Talk About
The deflationary monster is here and there are almost too many warning signs to list, let alone fully describe.
So I’ll just list and link them…you can follow up on the details if you want, it’s the ‘general vibe’ I want to get across.
Here are the signs of a weak economy that we are dealing with:
- Oil in the $20’s (!!)
- Copper under $2
- Baltic Dry Shipping Index at the lowest ever at 383 and down ~50% in the past year.
- Wal-Mart closing 269 stores, 154 in the US.
- Business inventories to sales at new cycle highs
- U.S. freight volume falls for first time in almost three years
- US retail sales fall 0.1% in December
- Empire State index weakens to recession lows.
- South African rand hits new all-time lows in 2016
- Brazil’s Real Falls Sharply Against Dollar
- Brazil Unemployment Rate Rises to 9%
- Canadian Dollar Hits 13 Year Low Against US Dollar
- U.S. Energy Junk Bond Spreads At Record Width
- Nigeria’s Currency Plummets On Open Market
- Mexico’s Peso Hits New All-Time Low
- Chinese Stocks Enter Bear Market (again)
- European Stocks Enter Bear Market
The pattern here is one of rapidly slowing economic activity and mounting pain starting “from the outside in” as emerging markets and the poor people within the core countries bear the brunt at first. Things always get rolling to the downside starting with the weakest, peripheral elements first.
Copper and oil are providing very clear signs that economic activity is not just slow, but in rapid retreat. Wal-Mart tells us that its shoppers are having trouble. The fresh all-time lows in a variety of currencies, plus massive weakness in others, is telling us that the virtuous portion of the liquidity cycle that the Fed, et al., unleashed on the world has entered the vicious part of the cycle.
The pain will spread to the center with increasing speed. The main question is if the authorities can stop that before the momentum becomes too great to halt? And what will happen if they cannot?
The answer to that is…
Why This Next Crisis Will Be Worse Than 2008
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- There are too many signs of deflation to deny it's winning the day
- Why China's weakening will accelerate the global economy's decent
- Why this next crisis will be worse than 2008
- What will it look like if things really get out of control (how bad could things get?)
- The best investments to be making now, before the rout
If you have not yet read The Deflation Monster Has Arrived, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Too Many Warning Signs To Talk About
The deflationary monster is here and there are almost too many warning signs to list, let alone fully describe.
So I’ll just list and link them…you can follow up on the details if you want, it’s the ‘general vibe’ I want to get across.
Here are the signs of a weak economy that we are dealing with:
- Oil in the $20’s (!!)
- Copper under $2
- Baltic Dry Shipping Index at the lowest ever at 383 and down ~50% in the past year.
- Wal-Mart closing 269 stores, 154 in the US.
- Business inventories to sales at new cycle highs
- U.S. freight volume falls for first time in almost three years
- US retail sales fall 0.1% in December
- Empire State index weakens to recession lows.
- South African rand hits new all-time lows in 2016
- Brazil’s Real Falls Sharply Against Dollar
- Brazil Unemployment Rate Rises to 9%
- Canadian Dollar Hits 13 Year Low Against US Dollar
- U.S. Energy Junk Bond Spreads At Record Width
- Nigeria’s Currency Plummets On Open Market
- Mexico’s Peso Hits New All-Time Low
- Chinese Stocks Enter Bear Market (again)
- European Stocks Enter Bear Market
The pattern here is one of rapidly slowing economic activity and mounting pain starting “from the outside in” as emerging markets and the poor people within the core countries bear the brunt at first. Things always get rolling to the downside starting with the weakest, peripheral elements first.
Copper and oil are providing very clear signs that economic activity is not just slow, but in rapid retreat. Wal-Mart tells us that its shoppers are having trouble. The fresh all-time lows in a variety of currencies, plus massive weakness in others, is telling us that the virtuous portion of the liquidity cycle that the Fed, et al., unleashed on the world has entered the vicious part of the cycle.
The pain will spread to the center with increasing speed. The main question is if the authorities can stop that before the momentum becomes too great to halt? And what will happen if they cannot?
The answer to that is…
by
David Collum
For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?
Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis.
David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner
by David CollumFor those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?
Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis.
by
Chris Martenson
Grant Williams returns this week to set the context for this week's FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. To say he is very skeptical of the Fed's ability to continue to control market forces much longer is a gross understatement.
Grant Williams: The End Of The Road
by Chris MartensonGrant Williams returns this week to set the context for this week's FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. To say he is very skeptical of the Fed's ability to continue to control market forces much longer is a gross understatement.
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