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Image | Chaz Peling: Backup Power Solutions
Chaz Peling: Backup Power Solutions
by Adam Taggart

Without electricity, our capability to conduct our modern way of life becomes immediately and severely curtailed. Communication instantly stops. Food quickly spoils. Sundown puts an end to all activity. Air conditioning and water well pumps no longer function.

And as prolonged blackouts often go hand-in-hand with gas shortages, disaster victims are often truly forced into a "dark ages" lifestyle.

This week, Chaz Peling, founder of Sol Solutions, joins the podcast to share his expertise on residential backup power options. The good news is that recent technology advancements offer more robust and affordable solutions than ever before. The bad news is, you have to invest the effort to procure an install them in advance of the next crisis for them to be of use.

Chaz Peling: Backup Power Solutions
 by Adam Taggart

Without electricity, our capability to conduct our modern way of life becomes immediately and severely curtailed. Communication instantly stops. Food quickly spoils. Sundown puts an end to all activity. Air conditioning and water well pumps no longer function.

And as prolonged blackouts often go hand-in-hand with gas shortages, disaster victims are often truly forced into a "dark ages" lifestyle.

This week, Chaz Peling, founder of Sol Solutions, joins the podcast to share his expertise on residential backup power options. The good news is that recent technology advancements offer more robust and affordable solutions than ever before. The bad news is, you have to invest the effort to procure an install them in advance of the next crisis for them to be of use.

Image | James Howard Kunstler: It’s Time To Be Honest With Ourselves
James Howard Kunstler: It’s Time To Be Honest With Ourselves
by Chris Martenson

The ever-eloquent James Howard Kunstler returns to our podcast this week to discuss the dangers of the 'comprehensive dishonesty' he observes in our culture today.

We occupy ourselves with distractions (e.g., the fear du jour that our media continually manufactures) and diversions (e.g., our empty social media addiction), while ignoring the erosion of the essential systems around us. Making matters worse, the leaders we assume are focusing on these issues aren't or are woefully out of their depth.

It's time for society to take a hard look in the mirror and be honest about the shortcoming it sees. Identifying them then opens the door to deciding what to do about them.

Without the courage to be honest, we condemn ourselves to a failing status quo that likely has little remaining time left.
James Howard Kunstler: It’s Time To Be Honest With Ourselves
 by Chris Martenson

The ever-eloquent James Howard Kunstler returns to our podcast this week to discuss the dangers of the 'comprehensive dishonesty' he observes in our culture today.

We occupy ourselves with distractions (e.g., the fear du jour that our media continually manufactures) and diversions (e.g., our empty social media addiction), while ignoring the erosion of the essential systems around us. Making matters worse, the leaders we assume are focusing on these issues aren't or are woefully out of their depth.

It's time for society to take a hard look in the mirror and be honest about the shortcoming it sees. Identifying them then opens the door to deciding what to do about them.

Without the courage to be honest, we condemn ourselves to a failing status quo that likely has little remaining time left.
Image | The Coming Shale Debacle
The Coming Shale Debacle
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • How bad will "bad" get?
  • What will happen to world supply and prices?
  • Who is most vulnerable?
  • How quickly could this occur?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Shale "Miracle" Is Becoming A "Debacle" available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How to Position Yourself

Okay, here’s the summary so far.  The shale companies are burning cash and they’ve done so every year. At every oil price point. And there’s nothing in the data to suggest that will change this year, or next.

So the first question to ask is: When will investors wake up and stop funding these companies?

This should be immediately followed by: How much financial and economic damage will then result? And how soon afterwards?

Well, if the companies stop drilling because their funding dries up, the decline rates of the various shale basins would translate into the immediate and sudden loss of a huge amount of oil production.  

How much?

According to the EIA the decline rates each month for the three biggest shale fields would be between 53,000 and 158,000 barrels per month.

Taken together, one month of not bringing any new wells online for these three fields would result in a drop in oil output of -314,000 barrels.  And a similar (but slightly smaller) drop the next month.  And the month after that, the same thing.  And so on.

After just 3 months the US would be down more than -1,000,000 barrels per day when all the other shale fields are taken into account. 

Now that’s extreme, and it’s very unlikely that drilling would just suddenly stop one day. But the point here is that…

The Coming Shale Debacle
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • How bad will "bad" get?
  • What will happen to world supply and prices?
  • Who is most vulnerable?
  • How quickly could this occur?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Shale "Miracle" Is Becoming A "Debacle" available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How to Position Yourself

Okay, here’s the summary so far.  The shale companies are burning cash and they’ve done so every year. At every oil price point. And there’s nothing in the data to suggest that will change this year, or next.

So the first question to ask is: When will investors wake up and stop funding these companies?

This should be immediately followed by: How much financial and economic damage will then result? And how soon afterwards?

Well, if the companies stop drilling because their funding dries up, the decline rates of the various shale basins would translate into the immediate and sudden loss of a huge amount of oil production.  

How much?

According to the EIA the decline rates each month for the three biggest shale fields would be between 53,000 and 158,000 barrels per month.

Taken together, one month of not bringing any new wells online for these three fields would result in a drop in oil output of -314,000 barrels.  And a similar (but slightly smaller) drop the next month.  And the month after that, the same thing.  And so on.

After just 3 months the US would be down more than -1,000,000 barrels per day when all the other shale fields are taken into account. 

Now that’s extreme, and it’s very unlikely that drilling would just suddenly stop one day. But the point here is that…

Image | Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”
Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”
by Chris Martenson

The central point of this report is that the US is deluding itself when it comes to energy abundance (generally) and oil (specifically).

The bottom line is this: The US shale industry resembles a fraudulent Ponzi scheme much more so than it does any kind of "miracle".
Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”
 by Chris Martenson

The central point of this report is that the US is deluding itself when it comes to energy abundance (generally) and oil (specifically).

The bottom line is this: The US shale industry resembles a fraudulent Ponzi scheme much more so than it does any kind of "miracle".
Image | Off The Cuff: The Path Forward
Off The Cuff: The Path Forward
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris talks about:

  • Our Ecological Budget Is In The Red
    • Our short-sightedness is dooming us
  • Our Economic Budget Is In Similar Danger
    • Again, we are living way above our means
  • Politically, We're Stumbling Badly, Too
    • North Korea, Russia, Syria, domestically…the list is long
  • We Can Do Better
    • There are plenty of better models out there, if we look for them

Recording from vacation on a small island in Maine with no power, this is different than our standard Off The Cuff. Chris takes time to reflect on the repercussions of our poor policy choices and how those are manifesting in the world. What makes our mistakes so regrettable in his eyes is that there are clear ways to do things better — we don't need new magical solutions to appear; there are models that work right on the table, ready for use; if only we're bold enough to embrace change.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Off The Cuff: The Path Forward
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris talks about:

  • Our Ecological Budget Is In The Red
    • Our short-sightedness is dooming us
  • Our Economic Budget Is In Similar Danger
    • Again, we are living way above our means
  • Politically, We're Stumbling Badly, Too
    • North Korea, Russia, Syria, domestically…the list is long
  • We Can Do Better
    • There are plenty of better models out there, if we look for them

Recording from vacation on a small island in Maine with no power, this is different than our standard Off The Cuff. Chris takes time to reflect on the repercussions of our poor policy choices and how those are manifesting in the world. What makes our mistakes so regrettable in his eyes is that there are clear ways to do things better — we don't need new magical solutions to appear; there are models that work right on the table, ready for use; if only we're bold enough to embrace change.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Image | The Inevitability Of DeGrowth
The Inevitability Of DeGrowth
by charleshughsmith

Even though we don't know precisely how the future will unfold, we know a few things about it.

Simply put, debt-dependent consumption in a world in which wages stagnate for the bottom 90% and energy costs increase as demand outstrips supply is a system with only one possible end-point: collapse.
The Inevitability Of DeGrowth
 by charleshughsmith

Even though we don't know precisely how the future will unfold, we know a few things about it.

Simply put, debt-dependent consumption in a world in which wages stagnate for the bottom 90% and energy costs increase as demand outstrips supply is a system with only one possible end-point: collapse.
Image | Steve St. Angelo: Prepare For Asset Price Declines Of 50-75%
Steve St. Angelo: Prepare For Asset Price Declines Of 50-75%
by Chris Martenson

Any sense of prosperity in today's economy is based on a falsehood, claims Steve St. Angelo, proprietor of the SRSrocco Report website.

Like we here at PeakProsperity.com, Steve is a student of energy. He shares our worldview that net energy per capita has been in steady decline, and a result, future growth will be limited. Also like us, he notes that the "growth" seen over the past several decades hasn't been due to surplus net energy (which makes being able to do more possible). Instead, it has been fueled by debt  — which essentially steals prosperity from the future and consumes it today.

Any third-grader with a crayon can quickly tell you that kind of scam can't last forever. And it can't. Once the can can't be kicked any further and the next economic and/or financial crisis is upon us, Steve sees today's over-inflated asset prices quickly dropping by a gut-wrenching 50-75%.

Steve St. Angelo: Prepare For Asset Price Declines Of 50-75%
 by Chris Martenson

Any sense of prosperity in today's economy is based on a falsehood, claims Steve St. Angelo, proprietor of the SRSrocco Report website.

Like we here at PeakProsperity.com, Steve is a student of energy. He shares our worldview that net energy per capita has been in steady decline, and a result, future growth will be limited. Also like us, he notes that the "growth" seen over the past several decades hasn't been due to surplus net energy (which makes being able to do more possible). Instead, it has been fueled by debt  — which essentially steals prosperity from the future and consumes it today.

Any third-grader with a crayon can quickly tell you that kind of scam can't last forever. And it can't. Once the can can't be kicked any further and the next economic and/or financial crisis is upon us, Steve sees today's over-inflated asset prices quickly dropping by a gut-wrenching 50-75%.

Image | Preparing For The Coming Shock
Preparing For The Coming Shock
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • The importance of understanding the difference between depleting vs declining
  • Why the shale "miracle" can't rescue us from this predicament
  • Why 2019 will be a seminal year
  • How high will oil prices go when the shock arrives?
  • Why the next oil shock will force the economy — and EVERYTHING we depend on — to diminish

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Looming Energy Shock available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

There are two words that are related but important to understand the distinction between. One is depletion, which refers to the amount of oil that is removed from a reservoir. The other is decline, which refers to the amount of oil flowing from a given well or field.

Depletion is a relatively straightforward process. If there are 100 units of removable oil in a field and you pump out 3 of them, the field has depleted by 3%.

But you might be able to hold the rate of pumping constant for a long time by injecting water or performing other stunts to force more oil out of a given well. If in our example we kept removing those same 3 units year after year, our decline rate would be zero. But the depletion rate would be increasing, because 3/100 = 3% but 3/97 = 3.1%. And after ten years the rate would be 3/70 = 4.3%.

That is, all efforts to keep oil flowing out of the wells at a maximum rate results in increasing rates of depletion. But we should also point out here that fighting decline rates is an expensive proposition. And that funding, too, has dried up of late.

The bottom line is that depletion is what really matters. Because once the oil gone, baby, it’s gone. All of the MSM headlines will keep you focused firmly on rates of extraction but only rarely on the rates of depletion.

So where is the world in the story of depletion? This is where our various sphincters should be involuntarily tightening. Rates of depletion are increasing, and they are substantial as seen here in…

Preparing For The Coming Shock
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • The importance of understanding the difference between depleting vs declining
  • Why the shale "miracle" can't rescue us from this predicament
  • Why 2019 will be a seminal year
  • How high will oil prices go when the shock arrives?
  • Why the next oil shock will force the economy — and EVERYTHING we depend on — to diminish

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Looming Energy Shock available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

There are two words that are related but important to understand the distinction between. One is depletion, which refers to the amount of oil that is removed from a reservoir. The other is decline, which refers to the amount of oil flowing from a given well or field.

Depletion is a relatively straightforward process. If there are 100 units of removable oil in a field and you pump out 3 of them, the field has depleted by 3%.

But you might be able to hold the rate of pumping constant for a long time by injecting water or performing other stunts to force more oil out of a given well. If in our example we kept removing those same 3 units year after year, our decline rate would be zero. But the depletion rate would be increasing, because 3/100 = 3% but 3/97 = 3.1%. And after ten years the rate would be 3/70 = 4.3%.

That is, all efforts to keep oil flowing out of the wells at a maximum rate results in increasing rates of depletion. But we should also point out here that fighting decline rates is an expensive proposition. And that funding, too, has dried up of late.

The bottom line is that depletion is what really matters. Because once the oil gone, baby, it’s gone. All of the MSM headlines will keep you focused firmly on rates of extraction but only rarely on the rates of depletion.

So where is the world in the story of depletion? This is where our various sphincters should be involuntarily tightening. Rates of depletion are increasing, and they are substantial as seen here in…

Image | The Looming Energy Shock
The Looming Energy Shock
by Chris Martenson

There will be an extremely painful oil supply shortfall sometime between 2018 and 2020. It will be highly disruptive to our over-leveraged global financial system, given how saddled it is with record debts and unfunded IOUs.
The Looming Energy Shock
 by Chris Martenson

There will be an extremely painful oil supply shortfall sometime between 2018 and 2020. It will be highly disruptive to our over-leveraged global financial system, given how saddled it is with record debts and unfunded IOUs.
Image | Joseph Tainter: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
Joseph Tainter: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
by Chris Martenson

By popular demand, we welcome Joseph Tainter, USU professor and author of The Collapse Of Complex Societies (free book download here).

Dr. Tainter sees many of the same unsustainable risks the PeakProsperity.com audience focuses on — an overleveraged economy, declining net energy per capita, and depleting key resources. 

He argues that the sustainability or collapse of a society follows from the success or failure of its problem-solving institutions. His work shows that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity and their energy subsidies reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. That is what we are going to be talking about today, especially in regards to where our culture is today, the risks it faces, and whether or not we might already be past the tipping point towards collapse but just don’t know it yet.

Joseph Tainter: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
 by Chris Martenson

By popular demand, we welcome Joseph Tainter, USU professor and author of The Collapse Of Complex Societies (free book download here).

Dr. Tainter sees many of the same unsustainable risks the PeakProsperity.com audience focuses on — an overleveraged economy, declining net energy per capita, and depleting key resources. 

He argues that the sustainability or collapse of a society follows from the success or failure of its problem-solving institutions. His work shows that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity and their energy subsidies reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. That is what we are going to be talking about today, especially in regards to where our culture is today, the risks it faces, and whether or not we might already be past the tipping point towards collapse but just don’t know it yet.

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