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Economy

Image | Michael Pettis: The Future of China
Michael Pettis: The Future of China
by Chris Martenson

Is China destined to emerge as the dominant superpower that will drive the 21st century to new heights of prosperity? Or instead, might it collapse spectacularly under the weight of its own overinvestment, dragging the global economy down with it in history's largest 'hard landing'?

Few people can see the big picture in China more clearly than Michael Pettis, Beijing-based economic theorist and Professor of Finance at Peking University. Michael sees China's future prosperity tied to its ability to successfully address:
Michael Pettis: The Future of China
 by Chris Martenson

Is China destined to emerge as the dominant superpower that will drive the 21st century to new heights of prosperity? Or instead, might it collapse spectacularly under the weight of its own overinvestment, dragging the global economy down with it in history's largest 'hard landing'?

Few people can see the big picture in China more clearly than Michael Pettis, Beijing-based economic theorist and Professor of Finance at Peking University. Michael sees China's future prosperity tied to its ability to successfully address:
Image | The Fed Matters Much Less Than You Think
The Fed Matters Much Less Than You Think
by charleshughsmith

This lemming-like belief in the power of the Federal Reserve generates its own psychological force field, of course; the actual power of the Fed is superseded by the belief in its power. We can thus anticipate widespread disbelief at the discovery that the Fed is either irrelevant or an impediment to the non-asset-bubble parts of the economy.
The Fed Matters Much Less Than You Think
 by charleshughsmith

This lemming-like belief in the power of the Federal Reserve generates its own psychological force field, of course; the actual power of the Fed is superseded by the belief in its power. We can thus anticipate widespread disbelief at the discovery that the Fed is either irrelevant or an impediment to the non-asset-bubble parts of the economy.
Image | Class, Race, Hierarchy, and Social Relations in ‘The Long Emergency’
Class, Race, Hierarchy, and Social Relations in ‘The Long Emergency’
by JHK

After the second novel in my World Made By Hand series (The Witch of Hebron) came out in 2010, I was beset by indignant reviews and angry letters from female readers over my depiction of gender and class relations further along in the 21st century. The fictional future economy I described was, in its broad outlines, similar to the future sketched by Chris Martenson and his stable of writers — a re-set to a far more local, much less complex, and downscaled economy, with a lot of formerly modern comforts and conveniences missing from the picture.

Class, Race, Hierarchy, and Social Relations in ‘The Long Emergency’
 by JHK

After the second novel in my World Made By Hand series (The Witch of Hebron) came out in 2010, I was beset by indignant reviews and angry letters from female readers over my depiction of gender and class relations further along in the 21st century. The fictional future economy I described was, in its broad outlines, similar to the future sketched by Chris Martenson and his stable of writers — a re-set to a far more local, much less complex, and downscaled economy, with a lot of formerly modern comforts and conveniences missing from the picture.

Image | Bankers Own the World
Bankers Own the World
by Chris Martenson

Today, some of the most celebrated individuals and institutions are ensconced within the financial industry; in banks, hedge funds, and private equity firms. Which is odd because none of these firms or individuals actually make anything, which society might point to as additive to our living standards. Instead, these financial magicians harvest value from the rest of society that has to work hard to produce real things of real value.
Bankers Own the World
 by Chris Martenson

Today, some of the most celebrated individuals and institutions are ensconced within the financial industry; in banks, hedge funds, and private equity firms. Which is odd because none of these firms or individuals actually make anything, which society might point to as additive to our living standards. Instead, these financial magicians harvest value from the rest of society that has to work hard to produce real things of real value.
Image | Off the Cuff: The Fed is Speaking out of Every Corner of Its Mouth
Off the Cuff: The Fed is Speaking out of Every Corner of Its Mouth
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Decoding FedSpeak
    • Deciphering the latest Fed minutes
  • Pricey Petroleum
    • Crude oil cracks $105/barrel
  • Fed Losing Control?
    • Outlook for stocks/bonds/real estate looking shaky
Off the Cuff: The Fed is Speaking out of Every Corner of Its Mouth
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Decoding FedSpeak
    • Deciphering the latest Fed minutes
  • Pricey Petroleum
    • Crude oil cracks $105/barrel
  • Fed Losing Control?
    • Outlook for stocks/bonds/real estate looking shaky
Image | The Dead Weight of Sluggish Global Growth
The Dead Weight of Sluggish Global Growth
by Gregor Macdonald

Global Slowdown

The U.S. economy weakened appreciably in the first quarter of 2013. But what if this weakness persists into the second quarter just completed, and worsens still in the second half of this year? Q1 GDP, as reported on June 26th, was revised lower to just 1.8%. And various indications suggest that Q2 could come in slightly lower still, at 1.6%. Might the U.S. economy be guiding to a long-term GDP of 1.5%? That’s the rate identified by such observers as Jeremy Grantham – the rate at which we combine aging demographics, lower fertility rates, high resource costs, and the burdensome legacy of debt. Well, after a four-year reflationary rally in just about everything, and now with an interest-rate shock, the second half of 2013 appears to have more downside rather than upside risk. Have global stock markets started to discount this possibility?

The Dead Weight of Sluggish Global Growth
 by Gregor Macdonald

Global Slowdown

The U.S. economy weakened appreciably in the first quarter of 2013. But what if this weakness persists into the second quarter just completed, and worsens still in the second half of this year? Q1 GDP, as reported on June 26th, was revised lower to just 1.8%. And various indications suggest that Q2 could come in slightly lower still, at 1.6%. Might the U.S. economy be guiding to a long-term GDP of 1.5%? That’s the rate identified by such observers as Jeremy Grantham – the rate at which we combine aging demographics, lower fertility rates, high resource costs, and the burdensome legacy of debt. Well, after a four-year reflationary rally in just about everything, and now with an interest-rate shock, the second half of 2013 appears to have more downside rather than upside risk. Have global stock markets started to discount this possibility?

Image | When Everybody Knows Something, Nobody Knows Anything
When Everybody Knows Something, Nobody Knows Anything
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Once upon a time, everybody knew that the earth was flat.  Then they all knew that it was round, but at the center of the universe.  In 1929, everybody was sure that a new permanent prosperity had been discovered. The next decade proved how wrong that assumption was.

As is repeatedly borne out in life, when everybody knows something, nobody knows anything. 
When Everybody Knows Something, Nobody Knows Anything
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Once upon a time, everybody knew that the earth was flat.  Then they all knew that it was round, but at the center of the universe.  In 1929, everybody was sure that a new permanent prosperity had been discovered. The next decade proved how wrong that assumption was.

As is repeatedly borne out in life, when everybody knows something, nobody knows anything. 
Image | Europe’s Precarious Banks Will Determine the Future
Europe’s Precarious Banks Will Determine the Future
by Alasdair Macleod

Crying Wolf?

It is easy to get the impression that the naysayers are wrong about Europe. After all of the predictions of Armageddon, ten-year government bond yields for Spain and Italy fell to the 4% level, France (which is retreating into old-fashioned socialism) was able to borrow at about 2%, and one of the best-performing bond investments has been until recently – wait for it – Greek government bonds! Admittedly, bond yields have risen from those lows, but so have they everywhere. It is clear, when one stands back from all the usual euro-rhetoric, that, as a threat to the global financial system, it is a case of "panic over."
Europe’s Precarious Banks Will Determine the Future
 by Alasdair Macleod

Crying Wolf?

It is easy to get the impression that the naysayers are wrong about Europe. After all of the predictions of Armageddon, ten-year government bond yields for Spain and Italy fell to the 4% level, France (which is retreating into old-fashioned socialism) was able to borrow at about 2%, and one of the best-performing bond investments has been until recently – wait for it – Greek government bonds! Admittedly, bond yields have risen from those lows, but so have they everywhere. It is clear, when one stands back from all the usual euro-rhetoric, that, as a threat to the global financial system, it is a case of "panic over."
Image | Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Arrived
Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Arrived
by Chris Martenson

In 1996, demographers William Strauss and Neil Howe published the book The Fourth Turning. This study of generational cycles ("turnings") in America revealed predictable social trends that recur throughout history, and warned of a coming crisis (a "fourth turning") based on this research.

Fourth turnings are defined by disorder and great changes brought on by a breakdown of the systems and operating principles that dominated the prior three turnings.

Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Arrived
 by Chris Martenson

In 1996, demographers William Strauss and Neil Howe published the book The Fourth Turning. This study of generational cycles ("turnings") in America revealed predictable social trends that recur throughout history, and warned of a coming crisis (a "fourth turning") based on this research.

Fourth turnings are defined by disorder and great changes brought on by a breakdown of the systems and operating principles that dominated the prior three turnings.

Image | Mark Skousen: Surveillance Technology Is Advancing Faster Than We Can Responsibly Use It
Mark Skousen: Surveillance Technology Is Advancing Faster Than We Can Responsibly Use It
by Chris Martenson

In the wake of the recent news revealing the extent of the NSA's level of citizen surveillance through supernetworks like PRISM, Chris speaks this week with Mark Skousen, former-CIA-agent turned founder-of-FreedomFest, one of the countries largest "gatherings of free minds."

Mark argues that in this case, technology has advanced at a far faster pace than our culture's ability to understand how to use it effectively, responsibly, and how to regulate it:

Mark Skousen: Surveillance Technology Is Advancing Faster Than We Can Responsibly Use It
 by Chris Martenson

In the wake of the recent news revealing the extent of the NSA's level of citizen surveillance through supernetworks like PRISM, Chris speaks this week with Mark Skousen, former-CIA-agent turned founder-of-FreedomFest, one of the countries largest "gatherings of free minds."

Mark argues that in this case, technology has advanced at a far faster pace than our culture's ability to understand how to use it effectively, responsibly, and how to regulate it:

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