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Economy

Image | ALERT: Markets In Breakdown
ALERT: Markets In Breakdown
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

This is a formal ALERT.

We issue those very sparingly here at Peak Prosperity. We only issue them when world events have gotten to the point that we are personally taking new actions to shore up our preparations.

2016 is fast proving that the tranquility the world has enjoyed from 2010 up to now has been false; that the problems we face were merely temporarily papered-over by central planners, not resolved. That tranquility is now over. Prepare for more turbulent times.
ALERT: Markets In Breakdown
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

This is a formal ALERT.

We issue those very sparingly here at Peak Prosperity. We only issue them when world events have gotten to the point that we are personally taking new actions to shore up our preparations.

2016 is fast proving that the tranquility the world has enjoyed from 2010 up to now has been false; that the problems we face were merely temporarily papered-over by central planners, not resolved. That tranquility is now over. Prepare for more turbulent times.
Image | The Return Of Crisis
The Return Of Crisis
by Chris Martenson

Financial markets the world over are increasingly chaotic and either retreating or plunging.  Our view is that there’s a gigantic market crash in our future and it’s possible that this has started now.
The Return Of Crisis
 by Chris Martenson

Financial markets the world over are increasingly chaotic and either retreating or plunging.  Our view is that there’s a gigantic market crash in our future and it’s possible that this has started now.
Image | Off The Cuff: An Economy Of Bureaucracy
Off The Cuff: An Economy Of Bureaucracy
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Why We're Headed For A Systemic Reset
    • Too much bloat
  • An Economy Of Bureaucracy
    • No bureaucracy ever reduced itself by choice
  • Why We Need To Starve The System
    • Opt out with our energy and our dollars
  • Why We'll Need To Do More With Less
    • Much of "business as usual" won't be around for much longer
Off The Cuff: An Economy Of Bureaucracy
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Why We're Headed For A Systemic Reset
    • Too much bloat
  • An Economy Of Bureaucracy
    • No bureaucracy ever reduced itself by choice
  • Why We Need To Starve The System
    • Opt out with our energy and our dollars
  • Why We'll Need To Do More With Less
    • Much of "business as usual" won't be around for much longer
Image | David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner
David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner
by David Collum

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?

Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis.

David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner
 by David Collum

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?

Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis.

Image | Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear?
Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear?
by Brian Pretti

Emotions are running high for the investment community in the wake of recent market volatility. Up until August, we had been in the third longest period in market history without a 10% correction. Since then, stock indices sold off hard, only to bounce once again over the past two weeks of trading.

And certainly the truth is….No one knows. Especially in today’s world where global central banks can concoct further QE/monetary schemes at the drop of a hat.  Let’s face it, at this point the global central banks are all in. In fact, beyond all in. Without question, the US Fed knows that if equities fall, they lose the high end consumer. (Wal-Mart shoppers have already long been lost) 
Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear?
 by Brian Pretti

Emotions are running high for the investment community in the wake of recent market volatility. Up until August, we had been in the third longest period in market history without a 10% correction. Since then, stock indices sold off hard, only to bounce once again over the past two weeks of trading.

And certainly the truth is….No one knows. Especially in today’s world where global central banks can concoct further QE/monetary schemes at the drop of a hat.  Let’s face it, at this point the global central banks are all in. In fact, beyond all in. Without question, the US Fed knows that if equities fall, they lose the high end consumer. (Wal-Mart shoppers have already long been lost) 
Image | Why The Next Drop Will Likely Be 30-40%
Why The Next Drop Will Likely Be 30-40%
 PREVIEW
by Brian Pretti

Executive Summary

  • New bear market + re-enter recession = 30-40% drop in stock prices
  • What are the chart of the best technical indicators telling us?
  • Confusion reigns during the transition from bull market to bear
  • Why volatility will reign & capital protection should be prioritized

If you have not yet read Part 1: Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

It’s The Global Economy, Stupid!

I believe another key question for equity investors right now is whether the recent noticeable slowing in global economic trajectory ultimately results in recession.  Why is this important?  According to the playbook of historical experience, stock market corrections that occur in non-recessionary environments tend to be shorter and less violent than corrections that take place within the context of actual economic recession.  Corrections in non-recessionary environments have been on average contained to the 10-20% range.  Corrective stock price periods associated with recession have been worse, many associated with 30-40% price declines known as “bear market” environments.

We can see exactly this in the following graph.  We are looking at the Dow Jones Global Index.  This is a composite of the top 350 companies on planet Earth.  If the fortunes of these companies do not represent and reflect the rhythm of the global economy, I do not know what does.  The blue bars marked in the chart are the periods covering last two US recessions.  US recessions that were accompanied by downturns in major developed economies globally.  As I’ve stated many a time, economies globally are….

Why The Next Drop Will Likely Be 30-40%
 PREVIEW by Brian Pretti

Executive Summary

  • New bear market + re-enter recession = 30-40% drop in stock prices
  • What are the chart of the best technical indicators telling us?
  • Confusion reigns during the transition from bull market to bear
  • Why volatility will reign & capital protection should be prioritized

If you have not yet read Part 1: Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

It’s The Global Economy, Stupid!

I believe another key question for equity investors right now is whether the recent noticeable slowing in global economic trajectory ultimately results in recession.  Why is this important?  According to the playbook of historical experience, stock market corrections that occur in non-recessionary environments tend to be shorter and less violent than corrections that take place within the context of actual economic recession.  Corrections in non-recessionary environments have been on average contained to the 10-20% range.  Corrective stock price periods associated with recession have been worse, many associated with 30-40% price declines known as “bear market” environments.

We can see exactly this in the following graph.  We are looking at the Dow Jones Global Index.  This is a composite of the top 350 companies on planet Earth.  If the fortunes of these companies do not represent and reflect the rhythm of the global economy, I do not know what does.  The blue bars marked in the chart are the periods covering last two US recessions.  US recessions that were accompanied by downturns in major developed economies globally.  As I’ve stated many a time, economies globally are….

Image | The War On Cash Intensifies
The War On Cash Intensifies
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

The central planners are setting the stage for the next round of officially sanctioned theft and this time they mean to assure that you have no way(s) of escaping.

They’re coming for your cash. This is a risk that Charles Hughes Smith explored for us back in June in a very well-received analysis.

Once a fringe idea, this concept is now being openly discussed and debated at the highest levels publicly. Which means it is being hotly discussed behind closed doors, and likely has been for a long time.

The War On Cash Intensifies
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

The central planners are setting the stage for the next round of officially sanctioned theft and this time they mean to assure that you have no way(s) of escaping.

They’re coming for your cash. This is a risk that Charles Hughes Smith explored for us back in June in a very well-received analysis.

Once a fringe idea, this concept is now being openly discussed and debated at the highest levels publicly. Which means it is being hotly discussed behind closed doors, and likely has been for a long time.

Image | Is China’s “Black Box” Economy About to Come Apart?
Is China’s “Black Box” Economy About to Come Apart?
by charleshughsmith

After 30 years of torrid expansion, perhaps the single most consequential factor in China’s economy is how much of it is a “black box”: a system with visible inputs and outputs whose internal workings are opaque.

That black box is looking increasingly like a Pandora's box. What will happen if it breaks apart?
Is China’s “Black Box” Economy About to Come Apart?
 by charleshughsmith

After 30 years of torrid expansion, perhaps the single most consequential factor in China’s economy is how much of it is a “black box”: a system with visible inputs and outputs whose internal workings are opaque.

That black box is looking increasingly like a Pandora's box. What will happen if it breaks apart?
Image | Why Greece Is The Precursor To The Next Global Debt Crisis
Why Greece Is The Precursor To The Next Global Debt Crisis
by charleshughsmith

There is no way for Greece to fix its debt problem if it keeps the euro as its currency.  Every purported solution that doesn’t address the core cause of the debt is mere theater.
Why Greece Is The Precursor To The Next Global Debt Crisis
 by charleshughsmith

There is no way for Greece to fix its debt problem if it keeps the euro as its currency.  Every purported solution that doesn’t address the core cause of the debt is mere theater.
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