by
David Collum
deflation
by
Brian Pretti
by
Brian Pretti
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- What is 'deflation?'
- Why do central banks fear it so much?
- What falling prices really mean.
- Commodities are telling us that a global slowdown is already here.
- China's economic miracle is over.
- What happens next (please keep your preparations on track!)
If you have not yet read Oil And The Global Slowdown available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The title of this part says it all. So let's begin with an important definition. What is 'deflation'?
To hear the media and central banks tell it, it is something fearful and that must be avoided at all costs. Confusingly they then point to falling prices as evidence of the horror of which they speak.
The only problem is that you and I like falling prices. If my health insurance cost 10% less next year I’d be thrilled. But the central banks would be horrified.
The difference between these two positions lies in the definition of deflation. While the media always blindly regurgitates the central bank line that falling prices are an indication of deflation they really shouldn't.
The Central Banks Have Lost
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- What is 'deflation?'
- Why do central banks fear it so much?
- What falling prices really mean.
- Commodities are telling us that a global slowdown is already here.
- China's economic miracle is over.
- What happens next (please keep your preparations on track!)
If you have not yet read Oil And The Global Slowdown available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The title of this part says it all. So let's begin with an important definition. What is 'deflation'?
To hear the media and central banks tell it, it is something fearful and that must be avoided at all costs. Confusingly they then point to falling prices as evidence of the horror of which they speak.
The only problem is that you and I like falling prices. If my health insurance cost 10% less next year I’d be thrilled. But the central banks would be horrified.
The difference between these two positions lies in the definition of deflation. While the media always blindly regurgitates the central bank line that falling prices are an indication of deflation they really shouldn't.
by
Adam Taggart
Executive Summary
- Planning determinants for:
- Precious Metals
- Bullion: physical
- Bullion: stored & tradable
- Miners
- Stocks & bonds
- Remaining long
- Strategies for shorting
- Real Estate
- Debt Management
- Income Security
- Local Investing
- Personal Preparations
- Community Preparations
- Precious Metals
If you have not yet read The Good News In All The Bad Data, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Though we strongly advise in Part 1 to move to cash, it's essential to remember that this is largely a transitional maneuver. The goal is to keep your powder dry during the coming deflationary storm, and then deploy it in as intelligently and timely a manner as possible when your dollars can buy quality assets at excellent discounts. In this Part 2, we walk you through the principal components for building your investing action plan for both in advance of, and when, that time arrives.
Also, we understand that for reasons of options and attitude, simply moving your portfolio 100% into cash is unpalatable or unrealistic for a number of people. Some of you will want to, perhaps even need to, have a percentage of your capital remain in the financial markets for the foreseeable future. So we discuss both long and short strategies for you to evaluate and pick whichever best suits your personal situation.
It's important to understand that the solution set contained below is a superset for your consideration and not a one-size-fits-all recipe (i.e. do NOT take it as personal investment advice!). As strongly urged in Part 1, its best use is as a structured guide for you and your financial adviser to use together in discussing and developing an investment plan customized to your goals, needs and risk tolerance.
Suffice it to say, everything discussed in this report (even the % cash component mentioned in Part 1) should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good…
Precious Metals
One of the biggest mysteries that continues to perplex Chris and me is: Why is central bank liquidity creating price bubbles in every asset class EXCEPT the one you would expect it to most?
Here we have everything from Facebook stock to Las Vegas houses to junk bonds to Beats headphones catching bids at insane prices. As Chris discussed last week with economist Steen Jakobsen, the data for stocks over the past year shows that the worse the balance sheet, the better a company's stock performance has been.
Why is everything down to pure crap being lifted by the giant pool of money sloshing around the planet, but prices for gold and silver — arguably the highest-grade assets to own — are so badly languishing?
I won't rehash all of our speculations for why, as there are dozens of recent articles on this site speculating on the topic. But as this year's mega-report on gold drives home, the actual fundamentals for owning precious metals not only remain intact, but they are expanding materially each year.
Well, the good news here is that the precious metals market is the one place you don't have to wait for the "buy at pennies on the dollar" experience. It's here now.
Prices are not only far below what the fundamentals justify, but…
How To Position Yourself Now
PREVIEW by Adam TaggartExecutive Summary
- Planning determinants for:
- Precious Metals
- Bullion: physical
- Bullion: stored & tradable
- Miners
- Stocks & bonds
- Remaining long
- Strategies for shorting
- Real Estate
- Debt Management
- Income Security
- Local Investing
- Personal Preparations
- Community Preparations
- Precious Metals
If you have not yet read The Good News In All The Bad Data, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Though we strongly advise in Part 1 to move to cash, it's essential to remember that this is largely a transitional maneuver. The goal is to keep your powder dry during the coming deflationary storm, and then deploy it in as intelligently and timely a manner as possible when your dollars can buy quality assets at excellent discounts. In this Part 2, we walk you through the principal components for building your investing action plan for both in advance of, and when, that time arrives.
Also, we understand that for reasons of options and attitude, simply moving your portfolio 100% into cash is unpalatable or unrealistic for a number of people. Some of you will want to, perhaps even need to, have a percentage of your capital remain in the financial markets for the foreseeable future. So we discuss both long and short strategies for you to evaluate and pick whichever best suits your personal situation.
It's important to understand that the solution set contained below is a superset for your consideration and not a one-size-fits-all recipe (i.e. do NOT take it as personal investment advice!). As strongly urged in Part 1, its best use is as a structured guide for you and your financial adviser to use together in discussing and developing an investment plan customized to your goals, needs and risk tolerance.
Suffice it to say, everything discussed in this report (even the % cash component mentioned in Part 1) should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good…
Precious Metals
One of the biggest mysteries that continues to perplex Chris and me is: Why is central bank liquidity creating price bubbles in every asset class EXCEPT the one you would expect it to most?
Here we have everything from Facebook stock to Las Vegas houses to junk bonds to Beats headphones catching bids at insane prices. As Chris discussed last week with economist Steen Jakobsen, the data for stocks over the past year shows that the worse the balance sheet, the better a company's stock performance has been.
Why is everything down to pure crap being lifted by the giant pool of money sloshing around the planet, but prices for gold and silver — arguably the highest-grade assets to own — are so badly languishing?
I won't rehash all of our speculations for why, as there are dozens of recent articles on this site speculating on the topic. But as this year's mega-report on gold drives home, the actual fundamentals for owning precious metals not only remain intact, but they are expanding materially each year.
Well, the good news here is that the precious metals market is the one place you don't have to wait for the "buy at pennies on the dollar" experience. It's here now.
Prices are not only far below what the fundamentals justify, but…
by
Gregor Macdonald
Executive Summary
- Anemic employment & wages growth depresses the odds of near-term interest rate hikes
- Why energy costs increases are experiencing a lull, keeping inflation lower than many expected
- The demographic arguments for deflation
- Why the US is becoming more vulnerable to a repricing of natural gas — vs oil — in the coming decade
If you have not yet read Part I: When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The most recent US jobs report was once again a disappointment, despite the headline number of 192,000 jobs created. Over the past two years, the economy has reliably created about 150,000 jobs per month. This has been just enough to keep up with population growth, but alas, not enough to put the long-term unemployed back to work. The concerning data in the report came in the details of the jobs created: as usual–and this has been a trend for several years now–mostly in the lower wage sectors. A few wrap-up tweets from Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital summed up the facts rather nicely:
#BLS OK, here’s the result: 49.21% of all jobs created in March were in the low wage sectors – reverting to situation we saw last year (1/2)
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
#BLS …and, in March, hourly wages FELL…down one penny overall and down 2 cents for production and non-supervisory workers. NOT GOOD.
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
Other notable observations from recent trends in US jobs reports include the fact that job creation in 2013 was no higher than in 2012. Not exactly an encouraging trend for those who would be looking for inflation risk, or strong growth in 2014.
But perhaps worst of all has been the number of workers leaving the workforce. Part of this can be explained, of course, by demographic retirements. It’s no secret that the US has an aging population, and there’s a bulge of retiring workers that will admittedly create some gaps in the labor market over the next decade. But the large numbers of workers exiting the workforce is also explained by discouraged workers, and that unemployment benefits for many have started running out.
What many in the public do not understand, is that workers taking unemployment checks are counted as active seekers of employment. They are added to the composition of the workforce, and when they continue to take unemployment checks but do not find work, they serve to keep the unemployment rate elevated. But when unemployment benefits expire, and workers leave the workforce, the unemployment rate may…
Why Demand Will Become Even More Scarce
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldExecutive Summary
- Anemic employment & wages growth depresses the odds of near-term interest rate hikes
- Why energy costs increases are experiencing a lull, keeping inflation lower than many expected
- The demographic arguments for deflation
- Why the US is becoming more vulnerable to a repricing of natural gas — vs oil — in the coming decade
If you have not yet read Part I: When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The most recent US jobs report was once again a disappointment, despite the headline number of 192,000 jobs created. Over the past two years, the economy has reliably created about 150,000 jobs per month. This has been just enough to keep up with population growth, but alas, not enough to put the long-term unemployed back to work. The concerning data in the report came in the details of the jobs created: as usual–and this has been a trend for several years now–mostly in the lower wage sectors. A few wrap-up tweets from Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital summed up the facts rather nicely:
#BLS OK, here’s the result: 49.21% of all jobs created in March were in the low wage sectors – reverting to situation we saw last year (1/2)
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
#BLS …and, in March, hourly wages FELL…down one penny overall and down 2 cents for production and non-supervisory workers. NOT GOOD.
— Dan Alpert (@DanielAlpert) April 4, 2014
Other notable observations from recent trends in US jobs reports include the fact that job creation in 2013 was no higher than in 2012. Not exactly an encouraging trend for those who would be looking for inflation risk, or strong growth in 2014.
But perhaps worst of all has been the number of workers leaving the workforce. Part of this can be explained, of course, by demographic retirements. It’s no secret that the US has an aging population, and there’s a bulge of retiring workers that will admittedly create some gaps in the labor market over the next decade. But the large numbers of workers exiting the workforce is also explained by discouraged workers, and that unemployment benefits for many have started running out.
What many in the public do not understand, is that workers taking unemployment checks are counted as active seekers of employment. They are added to the composition of the workforce, and when they continue to take unemployment checks but do not find work, they serve to keep the unemployment rate elevated. But when unemployment benefits expire, and workers leave the workforce, the unemployment rate may…
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Fauci's Private Diary Exposes Stark Contradictions on Lab Leak, Lethality, Lockdowns & Vaccines
by sand_puppy 
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