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Cash

by Adam Taggart

Executive Summary

  • Planning determinants for:
    1. Precious Metals
      • Bullion: physical
      • Bullion: stored & tradable
      • Miners
    2. Stocks & bonds
      • Remaining long
      • Strategies for shorting
    3. Real Estate
    4. Debt Management
    5. Income Security
    6. Local Investing
    7. Personal Preparations
    8. Community Preparations

If you have not yet read The Good News In All The Bad Data, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Though we strongly advise in Part 1 to move to cash, it's essential to remember that this is largely a transitional maneuver. The goal is to keep your powder dry during the coming deflationary storm, and then deploy it in as intelligently and timely a manner as possible when your dollars can buy quality assets at excellent discounts. In this Part 2, we walk you through the principal components for building your investing action plan for both in advance of, and when, that time arrives.

Also, we understand that for reasons of options and attitude, simply moving your portfolio 100% into cash is unpalatable or unrealistic for a number of people. Some of you will want to, perhaps even need to, have a percentage of your capital remain in the financial markets for the foreseeable future. So we discuss both long and short strategies for you to evaluate and pick whichever best suits your personal situation.

It's important to understand that the solution set contained below is a superset for your consideration and not a one-size-fits-all recipe (i.e. do NOT take it as personal investment advice!). As strongly urged in Part 1, its best use is as a structured guide for you and your financial adviser to use together in discussing and developing an investment plan customized to your goals, needs and risk tolerance.

Suffice it to say, everything discussed in this report (even the % cash component mentioned in Part 1) should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good…

Precious Metals

One of the biggest mysteries that continues to perplex Chris and me is: Why is central bank liquidity creating price bubbles in every asset class EXCEPT the one you would expect it to most?

Here we have everything from Facebook stock to Las Vegas houses to junk bonds to Beats headphones catching bids at insane prices. As Chris discussed last week with economist Steen Jakobsen, the data for stocks over the past year shows that the worse the balance sheet, the better a company's stock performance has been.

Why is everything down to pure crap being lifted by the giant pool of money sloshing around the planet, but prices for gold and silver — arguably the highest-grade assets to own — are so badly languishing?

I won't rehash all of our speculations for why, as there are dozens of recent articles on this site speculating on the topic. But as this year's mega-report on gold drives home, the actual fundamentals for owning precious metals not only remain intact, but they are expanding materially each year. 

Well, the good news here is that the precious metals market is the one place you don't have to wait for the "buy at pennies on the dollar" experience. It's here now.

Prices are not only far below what the fundamentals justify, but…

How To Position Yourself Now
PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

Executive Summary

  • Planning determinants for:
    1. Precious Metals
      • Bullion: physical
      • Bullion: stored & tradable
      • Miners
    2. Stocks & bonds
      • Remaining long
      • Strategies for shorting
    3. Real Estate
    4. Debt Management
    5. Income Security
    6. Local Investing
    7. Personal Preparations
    8. Community Preparations

If you have not yet read The Good News In All The Bad Data, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Though we strongly advise in Part 1 to move to cash, it's essential to remember that this is largely a transitional maneuver. The goal is to keep your powder dry during the coming deflationary storm, and then deploy it in as intelligently and timely a manner as possible when your dollars can buy quality assets at excellent discounts. In this Part 2, we walk you through the principal components for building your investing action plan for both in advance of, and when, that time arrives.

Also, we understand that for reasons of options and attitude, simply moving your portfolio 100% into cash is unpalatable or unrealistic for a number of people. Some of you will want to, perhaps even need to, have a percentage of your capital remain in the financial markets for the foreseeable future. So we discuss both long and short strategies for you to evaluate and pick whichever best suits your personal situation.

It's important to understand that the solution set contained below is a superset for your consideration and not a one-size-fits-all recipe (i.e. do NOT take it as personal investment advice!). As strongly urged in Part 1, its best use is as a structured guide for you and your financial adviser to use together in discussing and developing an investment plan customized to your goals, needs and risk tolerance.

Suffice it to say, everything discussed in this report (even the % cash component mentioned in Part 1) should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good…

Precious Metals

One of the biggest mysteries that continues to perplex Chris and me is: Why is central bank liquidity creating price bubbles in every asset class EXCEPT the one you would expect it to most?

Here we have everything from Facebook stock to Las Vegas houses to junk bonds to Beats headphones catching bids at insane prices. As Chris discussed last week with economist Steen Jakobsen, the data for stocks over the past year shows that the worse the balance sheet, the better a company's stock performance has been.

Why is everything down to pure crap being lifted by the giant pool of money sloshing around the planet, but prices for gold and silver — arguably the highest-grade assets to own — are so badly languishing?

I won't rehash all of our speculations for why, as there are dozens of recent articles on this site speculating on the topic. But as this year's mega-report on gold drives home, the actual fundamentals for owning precious metals not only remain intact, but they are expanding materially each year. 

Well, the good news here is that the precious metals market is the one place you don't have to wait for the "buy at pennies on the dollar" experience. It's here now.

Prices are not only far below what the fundamentals justify, but…

by David Collum

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. Moreover, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full.

2013 Year in Review
by David Collum

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. Moreover, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full.

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Why the next stock market decline could be in excess of 50%
  • What historic indicators of coming decline are telling us
  • The case for holding cash now
  • If the market does roll over substantially in early 2014, how long may the decline last?

If you have not yet read The Case for a Crash, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we attempted to answer the question, Which forecast is more likely to be accurate: that the Bull market in stocks will continue for years to come, or the market will swan-dive in yet another multi-year crash?

We concluded that there was little historical evidence to support the claim that the S&P 500 will extend higher for an additional three to five years.

Here in Part II, we’ll look for clues about the possible amplitude and timing of the decline that the five-year cycle of the “new normal” suggests is likely.

(A reminder on gold: I detailed a forecast on gold earlier this year based on price action around key support/resistance levels, and nothing in recent price action has caused me to amend that forecast.  I have also noted that gold does not correlate well with either stocks or the U.S. dollar; i.e., its dynamics are largely independent of stocks and the USD. To the degree that gold is viewed as a “risk-off” safe-haven asset, it should do well if “risk-on” assets such as stocks crater.)

Forecasting the Amplitude of the Next Decline

A number of technical analysts have noted this megaphone pattern in the stock market, a pattern formed by alternating higher highs and lower lows.  This is one basis of forecasts for the SPX to drop to the 500-600 level in the next downdraft, potentially retracing the entire Bull advance from 1995. 

While this megaphone may not play out, it establishes a potential target for a crushing drop from current highs…

The Case for Cash
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Why the next stock market decline could be in excess of 50%
  • What historic indicators of coming decline are telling us
  • The case for holding cash now
  • If the market does roll over substantially in early 2014, how long may the decline last?

If you have not yet read The Case for a Crash, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we attempted to answer the question, Which forecast is more likely to be accurate: that the Bull market in stocks will continue for years to come, or the market will swan-dive in yet another multi-year crash?

We concluded that there was little historical evidence to support the claim that the S&P 500 will extend higher for an additional three to five years.

Here in Part II, we’ll look for clues about the possible amplitude and timing of the decline that the five-year cycle of the “new normal” suggests is likely.

(A reminder on gold: I detailed a forecast on gold earlier this year based on price action around key support/resistance levels, and nothing in recent price action has caused me to amend that forecast.  I have also noted that gold does not correlate well with either stocks or the U.S. dollar; i.e., its dynamics are largely independent of stocks and the USD. To the degree that gold is viewed as a “risk-off” safe-haven asset, it should do well if “risk-on” assets such as stocks crater.)

Forecasting the Amplitude of the Next Decline

A number of technical analysts have noted this megaphone pattern in the stock market, a pattern formed by alternating higher highs and lower lows.  This is one basis of forecasts for the SPX to drop to the 500-600 level in the next downdraft, potentially retracing the entire Bull advance from 1995. 

While this megaphone may not play out, it establishes a potential target for a crushing drop from current highs…

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