NOTE: Dave will be taking next weekend off in observation of Thanksgiving, so there will be no Market Update on Sunday, November 30. We hope all our American readers have a great Thanksgiving!
~ Peak Team
Consumer Economy
- Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) 159.6M +119K (+0.07% m/m) [September]
- Unemployment Rate (U6RATE) 8.0% -0.1% [September]
- Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER) 311B +8.7B (+2.80% m/m) [September]
- Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S) 4.10M +50.0K (+1.22% m/m) [October]
September Payrolls were headline-expansionary, as was the Durable Goods (Orders).
That said, revisions are a thing. Here’s the site at BLS (cesnaicsrev), which tracks revisions (2nd, 3rd) over time. I look at the (red box) column showing the 3rd revision change, seasonally adjusted. Long story short: average revision (month 3 – month 1) in 2025: -69k. In 2008: -102k. (I did the math to calculate the average, rather than rely on “mean”). What happens: Revisions get worse and worse as the recession gets more serious. If you want to see this play out, look at the doc for 2008: revision in Jan 2008: -59, while in Sep 2008: -244. Whoopsie! Conclusion: Just based on history, we should NOT rely on initial values for PAYEMS.
The unemployment rate (U6RATE) was 8% [an -0.1% decline] – the 8% rate is not recessionary.
My “payrolls-recession” indicators were mixed – but leaned non-recessionary:
- Working Part Time (only PTW is available): -11.79% [positive]
- Working Part Time (Slack Work): +1.92% [negative]
October Home Sales moved up slightly, but overall, the number of home sales is still bouncing around the lows.
With A Disability
- Total Population (LNU00074597) 35.1M +1K (+0.00%)
- Labor Force (LNU01074597) 8.77M -36K (-0.41%)
- Employed (LNU02074597) 8.01M -40K (-0.50%)
- Not In Labor Force (LNU05074597) 26.36M +36K (+0.14%)
Disability inched lower in September across most of the groups. While “with a disability” in the overall population is down from the highs, that isn’t true for the “employed” population.
by cmartenson 
