Consumer Economy
- Personal Income (PI) 26.40T +79.9B (+0.30% m/m) (prior +0.12% m/m)
- Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES) 16.1M +308.0K (+1.95% m/m) (prior +2.02% m/m)
- GDP (GDP) 31.10T +612.3B (+2.01% q/q) (prior +1.48% q/q) +1272.8B
- Personal Income (PINCOME) 26.20T +210.1B (+0.81% q/q) (prior +1.05% q/q)
While [December] auto sales remain weak (5 year low), heavy truck sales bounced sharply higher. Are we BOOMING again?
Personal Income [Q3] (PINCOME) grew at 3.24% annualized. That is not keeping up with inflation. Meanwhile, [AI] GDP for Q3 was BOOMING, at +8% annualized. The monthly income series (PI) [November] moved slightly higher (3.6% annualized, but remains well below actual inflation.
I suspect: the covered-up Magic Money Machines run in the background, while little-people income is stagnant.
Next up: time for some (stimmy) “Tariff” checks. Now that’s “real money printing”, since it will all be spent directly into the economy rather than sitting in someone’s account collecting interest.
Credit & Rates
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 19.05T +54.9B (+0.29% w/w)
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.58T +2.9B (+0.04% w/w) (prior +0.12% w/w)
- US 30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.09% +3 bp
- 3-Month Treasury (DGS3MO) 3.67% +0 bp
- 1-Year Treasury (DGS1) 3.53% -2 bp
- 10-Year Treasury (DGS10) 4.25% +1 bp
- 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT.N) +0.15% w/w (prior -0.15% w/w)
Bank credit shot higher this week – 15% annualized. That’s the second week it has done this. Bank credit looked ugly a few weeks back, but it has recovered. That’s inflationary. You can see overall y/y change in bank credit (red line) is now around 6%.
Fed printed a tiny amount of money (2.9B) this week. It isn’t visible on the chart, so I didn’t post; annualized rate = 2.08%.
Not much change in rates this week – a slight increase at the long end of the curve.
TLT was smashed hard on Tuesday, but then spent the rest of the week recovering.
by irishprince 
