Consumer Economy
Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS); 159.6M +139K (+0.09% m/m)
Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER); $296B -20B (-6.76% m/m)
Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES); 15.64M -1.61M (-10.31% m/m)
Durable Goods basically erased last month’s big jump. I’m guessing last month was “tariff-front-running” that has now been reversed, but it also hints at recession.
Auto/Light Truck sales saw something similar to Durable Goods Orders – ALTSALES wiped out the gains seen over the last 2 months. That hints at recession, too. While the overall ALTSALES number is still reasonably strong, auto sales alone (LAUTOSA) have dropped to a new 3-year low. Way back in the 1970s, auto sales were about 10-12 million units per month, but now, just 2.6 million units/month. Auto sales started falling off a cliff around 2015.
Native-Born (LNU02073413) 131.822M -444k -0.34%
Foreign-Born (LNU02073395) 31.579M -224k -0.70%
Both foreign-born and native-born employment fell this month. The decline in foreign-born employment was about double that (percentage-wise) of the native-born. If this is a proxy for “deportations”, then perhaps the 224k decline roughly approximates the number of foreign-born that have left the US, and/or maybe double that number that weren’t working. That said, both groups fell, and not by small amounts – unlike the household survey numbers (PAYEMS). The decline in both numbers feels recessionary.
One of my payrolls indicators suggests – in spite of the +139k of happy news in the household survey, there was an increase (+125k) in people working part time this month because “only part-time work is available.” This indicator also spiked higher right as the 2008 recession started. Of course, recessions only get “declared” six months after they have already begun. Once the little people are belatedly told that they have been in a recession for a while, “risk assets” will have already corrected.
Working Part Time/Economic Reasons: Only PTW Available (LNS12032196) 1.38M +125k (+9.92% m/m)
With a Disability
CNP-disability (LNU00074597) 35.517M +739k +2.12%
CLF-disability (LNU01074597) 8.719M +295k +3.50%
EMP-disability (LNU02074597) 8.059M +324k +4.19%
NILF-disability (LNU05074597) 2.6798M +444k +1.68%
Definitions: CNP=population, CLF=labor force, EMP=employed, NILF=not in the labor force.
by cmartenson 
