If you read my recent blog post on existing home sales, you may experience déjà vu reading this one. My point in exposing the ways in which “news” is spun to the positive, instead of realistically, is to help you see the ways in which we are still being systematically misled. I consider this to be important to reveal because while problems are still being identified, realism is more important than optimism.

Would you tell an overweight man with chest pains that “it’s probably heartburn and that most people are just fine after experiencing chest pains” or would you advise them to obtain a careful examination of their condition?

Here, we are going to give the patient a close examination.

I want to talk about the renewed tendency of the press to reiterate the pronouncements of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) apparantly without consideration for how badly they were bamboozled by the NAR from 2003 to 2008.

Check out this opening paragraph announcing the latest “great news” on existing home sales (emphasis mine):

This report for subscribers goes hand-in-hand with the Rolling Stone article linked and discussed below. Together, they point out the urgency of our current situation and that the continuation of the status quo behaviors of protecting the banking profits of well-connected insiders and continuing to be less than forthright with ourselves (Fuzzy Numbers) are rapidly diminishing the prospects for a gentle and favorable outcome.

Here’s the opening:

Executive Summary

• US federal deficits reported to be $9.3 trillion over the next decade
• Fuzzy Accounting means these deficits are actually vastly under reported
• Actual deficits closer to $6 trillion per year, or $60 trillion over the next decade
• Deficits defined and explained
• Risk of a dollar collapse only increasing
• You need to step up your personal efforts at mitigating the potential impacts of a US currency crisis

The Congressional Budget Office just announced that the fiscal deficits of the federal government are going to be a lot larger than previously estimated. This news was taken in stride by the financial markets, especially the FOREX markets where the dollar is traded, but it will only be a matter of time before these massive deficits are recognized for what they are – signs of terminal illness for the financial prospects of the US, and, by extension, the dollar itself.

It is vital that you understand the true extent of the illness, and the ways in which we systematically sugar-coat and under report the true magnitude of the situation by the use of Fuzzy Numbers – in this case, more accurately described as Fuzzy Accounting.

In this report I will explain how to interpret the reported deficit, demonstrate the actual size of the true deficit, and then make the case that you should seriously consider stepping up your personal efforts at preparing for an uncertain future.

On Wednesday of last week, I wrote these words in an Alert:

Given the recent revelations that Goldman Sachs and other well-connected players in the AIG scandal got billions of dollars directly from the US taxpayers for their side-bets with AIG, I will not be at all surprised to find out in a few weeks or months that Goldman Sachs, JPM, and others were magically positioned to make a killing off of this move.

That’s just raw speculation, but it fits with the general pattern of conflicted enrichment that has stalked every move in this grand looting operation so far.

In fact, the constant drip-drip-drip of news about self-dealing by insiders with zero legal consequences for the perpetrators leaves me with the queasy feeling that every attempt at finding a legitimate resolution to this crisis will be thwarted by a crowd of Wall Street insiders who simply cannot resist an opportunity to redirect money into their own pockets. But that’s another story.

Yesterday that story got published in Rolling Stone Magazine.

Matt Taibbi, the author, deserves a standing ovation for the most outstanding explanation of how truly corrupt the situation is, and capturing the hubris and entitlement that infuse our entire power structure.

It is the best I’ve yet read on the subject. You must read it. The whole thing.

Below is an alert I sent out on Wednesday evening.  I want everyone to see what is at the forefront of my thinking right now.

I am busy writing up my next layers of thought around this development and will make that the basis of my next Martenson Report or two.  

Why?  Because this recent action by the Fed is a "game changer."

In a shocking development that I frankly hoped we’d never actually see, the Federal Reserve dropped a bombshell yesterday and announced that it is going to create an extra $1 trillion dollars out of thin air to support the spending desires of the US government and to drive down interest rates for mortgage borrowers.

Of course, this will continue to punish savers and pension plans, but those, frankly, are of no concern to the Fed.

Below I explore this outrageous turn of events. Please note that I have not had much time to digest this incredible news and that I reserve the right to add to (or amend) my thinking over the next few days.

The way that the US is planning to fund all of the bailout and stimulus activity is by borrowing the money.  As any long-time reader here knows, the rate of US savings has been less than stellar over the past 15 years or so, indicating that borrowing from foreign sources is necessary to plug the gap.

The way we keep an eye on this is by watching something called the Treasury International Capital, or "TIC," report.

What this report from the Treasury Department measures is the aggregate total of money coming into vs. heading out of the US. Money flows in and money flows out.  When it comes in, it lands in bank accounts and bond and equity purchases.  When it leaves, the various financial assets are sold and the money flows home, wherever that happens to be.  All of this is tracked.

Admittedly there are a lot of moving pieces in this measurement, but, roughly speaking, for everything to balance, the amount of money coming in needs to equal the amount of money being borrowed by the US.

If it does not, then the official deficit of the US government will compete with local needs for borrowing while the trade deficit will erode the value of the dollar.  If and when both domestic and foreign sources of lending are insufficient for the task, then we’d expect the Federal Reserve to cave in and simply print up the difference.

A new Martenson Report is ready for subscribers.  In it, I describe the worst and best case scenarios that I see possible in the next few years, highlight China’s concerns, examine the global trade deficit, and conclude that the bottom is not in.

As I’ve been writing about in the Martenson Reports over time, including the last one, one of the next shoes to drop is going to be a pension disaster. This too will be more easily measured in trillions than billions.

I am expecting a public pension wreck based on “management” so flawed as to cross over into gross negligence or worse.