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Image | New Martenson Report Ready – It’s Hit the Fan
New Martenson Report Ready – It’s Hit the Fan
by Chris Martenson

A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.  In this report, we stroll through the recent data and I make the case that there’s no need to wait for any clearer signs that “things have changed” than the ones we already have.  If you are waiting for TSHTF (explained in the article) then you can stop waiting.

Link to It Has Hit The Fan

A snippet:

In times like these, I take a few steps back and try to look at the whole picture. The details are numerous; they are often contradictory and confusing. For clarity’s sake, it can be helpful to keep the macro view in focus, instead of the details. Here are the big-picture items that I keep firmly in mind each day:

  • This is a crisis of too much debt, not too little spending.
  • This is a global crisis. Clues for directionality are best found by viewing the entire world situation. That data still points downwards.
  • The energy situation is getting worse, not better, due to a lack of critical and focused investment and the passage of wasted time.
  • It’s not possible for an insolvent nation to borrow money from an insolvent financial system to bail out insolvent financial, real estate, and insurance companies.
New Martenson Report Ready – It’s Hit the Fan
 by Chris Martenson

A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.  In this report, we stroll through the recent data and I make the case that there’s no need to wait for any clearer signs that “things have changed” than the ones we already have.  If you are waiting for TSHTF (explained in the article) then you can stop waiting.

Link to It Has Hit The Fan

A snippet:

In times like these, I take a few steps back and try to look at the whole picture. The details are numerous; they are often contradictory and confusing. For clarity’s sake, it can be helpful to keep the macro view in focus, instead of the details. Here are the big-picture items that I keep firmly in mind each day:

  • This is a crisis of too much debt, not too little spending.
  • This is a global crisis. Clues for directionality are best found by viewing the entire world situation. That data still points downwards.
  • The energy situation is getting worse, not better, due to a lack of critical and focused investment and the passage of wasted time.
  • It’s not possible for an insolvent nation to borrow money from an insolvent financial system to bail out insolvent financial, real estate, and insurance companies.
Image | It Has Hit The Fan!
It Has Hit The Fan!
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson
Sunday, May 17, 2009

Executive Summary

  • Stop waiting for "it" to happen; it already has.
  • Keep the big picture in mind.
  • This is a crisis of too much debt, not too little spending.
  • This is a global crisis.
  • The energy situation is getting worse, not better.
  • It’s not possible for an insolvent nation to borrow money from an insolvent financial system to bail out insolvent financial, real estate, and insurance companies.
  • Change is necessary, and we must embrace it.

If you have been waiting for further confirmation about the direction of the economy, or waiting for a sign that it’s now time to get serious about preparing for a future filled with less, this report is written for you.

My job is to provide you with a big-picture view of where we are and where we are headed, with an emphasis on clarifying the ways in which the dominant spin-cycle news machinery attempts to lure us back into the false comfort of borrowing and spending more.

At PeakProsperity.com, people often wonder about what they’ll do "when things fall apart."  A frequently-used acronym-containing alternative to this phrase is "when TSHTF," where the "F" refers to a fan and the other letters to something else hitting the fan that I will be coy about, so as not to offend anybody’s sensibilities or trigger any spam filters.

I have news for everybody:  It has hit the fan.
It Has Hit The Fan!
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
Sunday, May 17, 2009

Executive Summary

  • Stop waiting for "it" to happen; it already has.
  • Keep the big picture in mind.
  • This is a crisis of too much debt, not too little spending.
  • This is a global crisis.
  • The energy situation is getting worse, not better.
  • It’s not possible for an insolvent nation to borrow money from an insolvent financial system to bail out insolvent financial, real estate, and insurance companies.
  • Change is necessary, and we must embrace it.

If you have been waiting for further confirmation about the direction of the economy, or waiting for a sign that it’s now time to get serious about preparing for a future filled with less, this report is written for you.

My job is to provide you with a big-picture view of where we are and where we are headed, with an emphasis on clarifying the ways in which the dominant spin-cycle news machinery attempts to lure us back into the false comfort of borrowing and spending more.

At PeakProsperity.com, people often wonder about what they’ll do "when things fall apart."  A frequently-used acronym-containing alternative to this phrase is "when TSHTF," where the "F" refers to a fan and the other letters to something else hitting the fan that I will be coy about, so as not to offend anybody’s sensibilities or trigger any spam filters.

I have news for everybody:  It has hit the fan.
Image | In Their Own Words – Economic Quotes
In Their Own Words – Economic Quotes
by Chris Martenson

One of my favorite internet articles of all time, entitled "Pompous Prognosticators," placed quotes of various politicians and other authority figures across a chart of the Dow Jones, spanning the years 1925 to 1933. A portion of that article is located here.

Here’s an image from the original article to jog your memory, in case you can’t recall which article I am referring to:

src=

I loved that article when it came out, and still love it today, because it reveals that nothing has changed through the decades and that believing the self-interested pronouncements of "green shoots" can be hazardous to your wealth.

So I decided to recreate that effort but update it for our modern times. Let’s continue to update this chart over time and see where it goes.  The people at Lowesville will recognize the work below, because I presented it there, along with a lot of other new information, inlcuding the Crash Course Toolbox, which is a main feature of my in-person seminars.

In Their Own Words – Economic Quotes
 by Chris Martenson

One of my favorite internet articles of all time, entitled "Pompous Prognosticators," placed quotes of various politicians and other authority figures across a chart of the Dow Jones, spanning the years 1925 to 1933. A portion of that article is located here.

Here’s an image from the original article to jog your memory, in case you can’t recall which article I am referring to:

src=

I loved that article when it came out, and still love it today, because it reveals that nothing has changed through the decades and that believing the self-interested pronouncements of "green shoots" can be hazardous to your wealth.

So I decided to recreate that effort but update it for our modern times. Let’s continue to update this chart over time and see where it goes.  The people at Lowesville will recognize the work below, because I presented it there, along with a lot of other new information, inlcuding the Crash Course Toolbox, which is a main feature of my in-person seminars.

Image | Stress Test Results Announced
Stress Test Results Announced
by Chris Martenson

As I wrote about in my last report the bank "stress tests" are a sham in part because the trajectory of even the worst case stress test scenario (called "more adverse" by the regulators) has already been exceeded to the downside by real-world economic results.
Stress Test Results Announced
 by Chris Martenson

As I wrote about in my last report the bank "stress tests" are a sham in part because the trajectory of even the worst case stress test scenario (called "more adverse" by the regulators) has already been exceeded to the downside by real-world economic results.
Image | Listen to Bernanke at Your Own Peril
Listen to Bernanke at Your Own Peril
by Chris Martenson

Ben Bernanke spoke today (Tuesday May 5th, 2009) and said some very encouraging things that were widely interpreted throughout the US media machine as a claim that the "the bottom is in."

Astute observers of past Bernanke statements will quickly recall the numerous other times he made either overly-optimistic or horribly off-the-mark statements that seem, in retrospect, to have been crafted to be soothing, instead of wise or accurate.
Listen to Bernanke at Your Own Peril
 by Chris Martenson

Ben Bernanke spoke today (Tuesday May 5th, 2009) and said some very encouraging things that were widely interpreted throughout the US media machine as a claim that the "the bottom is in."

Astute observers of past Bernanke statements will quickly recall the numerous other times he made either overly-optimistic or horribly off-the-mark statements that seem, in retrospect, to have been crafted to be soothing, instead of wise or accurate.
Image | Pending Home Sales – Spin Cycle Set on “High”
Pending Home Sales – Spin Cycle Set on “High”
by Chris Martenson

Once again we have been treated to a form of news spin that borders on propaganda.

This time the information comes from the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, a group which long ago fell out of my favor for their tendency to churn out poor quality sampled “data” that was invariably out of step with reality by being overly positive.  Errors happen, but when they are always in one direction, they cease to be random errors.
Pending Home Sales – Spin Cycle Set on “High”
 by Chris Martenson

Once again we have been treated to a form of news spin that borders on propaganda.

This time the information comes from the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, a group which long ago fell out of my favor for their tendency to churn out poor quality sampled “data” that was invariably out of step with reality by being overly positive.  Errors happen, but when they are always in one direction, they cease to be random errors.
Image | New Martenson Report Ready for Enrolled Members
New Martenson Report Ready for Enrolled Members
by Chris Martenson

There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.

This one concerns the results of bank stress tests due to be announced this week.

The Bank Stress Tests Have Already Failed

Here’s part of the conclusion:

A “stress test,” at least as far as I understand it from a scientific or engineering standpoint, is supposed to encompass a set of conditions beyond normal, or expected, values. The bank stress-test assumptions are already exceeded in each case by real-world conditions, and therefore will be neither illuminating nor predictive when they are released. Let’s all be thankful that the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department do not design bridges. If they did, they might “stress test” them by simulating an average load of traffic under average conditions and declare them perfectly safe.

I advise you to tune out what is certain to be an upbeat assessment of the condition of our banks, when the stress test results are finally released.  My opinion is that the stress tests were specifically designed to be neither stressful nor revealing.  Instead, they were designed to produce expected results for the purpose of instilling confidence in banks and in the crisis management team.

New Martenson Report Ready for Enrolled Members
 by Chris Martenson

There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.

This one concerns the results of bank stress tests due to be announced this week.

The Bank Stress Tests Have Already Failed

Here’s part of the conclusion:

A “stress test,” at least as far as I understand it from a scientific or engineering standpoint, is supposed to encompass a set of conditions beyond normal, or expected, values. The bank stress-test assumptions are already exceeded in each case by real-world conditions, and therefore will be neither illuminating nor predictive when they are released. Let’s all be thankful that the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department do not design bridges. If they did, they might “stress test” them by simulating an average load of traffic under average conditions and declare them perfectly safe.

I advise you to tune out what is certain to be an upbeat assessment of the condition of our banks, when the stress test results are finally released.  My opinion is that the stress tests were specifically designed to be neither stressful nor revealing.  Instead, they were designed to produce expected results for the purpose of instilling confidence in banks and in the crisis management team.

Image | Bank Stress Tests Have Already Failed
Bank Stress Tests Have Already Failed
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson
Sunday, May 3, 2009

Executive Summary

  • The bank stress tests are a sham.
  • Reality is already worse than the worst case stress test scenario.
  • The stress test results will be used as a “positive indicator” anyway.
  • Don’t fall for it.

The bank stress tests, the results of which are to be announced later this week, have already failed. Why? Because the stress test is supposed to assess how a bank’s loan portfolio would fare under a variety of scenarios, but reality is already far worse than the worst-case scenario. The FDIC, Treasury, and Federal Reserve went ahead with their weak input assumptions to conduct the stress test, even though they knew that reality was outpacing their most dire scenario.

In other words, the stress test is a sham.
Bank Stress Tests Have Already Failed
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
Sunday, May 3, 2009

Executive Summary

  • The bank stress tests are a sham.
  • Reality is already worse than the worst case stress test scenario.
  • The stress test results will be used as a “positive indicator” anyway.
  • Don’t fall for it.

The bank stress tests, the results of which are to be announced later this week, have already failed. Why? Because the stress test is supposed to assess how a bank’s loan portfolio would fare under a variety of scenarios, but reality is already far worse than the worst-case scenario. The FDIC, Treasury, and Federal Reserve went ahead with their weak input assumptions to conduct the stress test, even though they knew that reality was outpacing their most dire scenario.

In other words, the stress test is a sham.
Image | Spin Cycle Set to “High”
Spin Cycle Set to “High”
by Chris Martenson

The economic news these days can be readily parsed into two separate types: increasingly positive “survey” data and increasingly worse “real” data.

I recently wrote about the flaws in the survey reports, so I won’t spend more time here discussing why these reports are best taken with a very large grain of salt.

First, the survey data that was released today:

Spin Cycle Set to “High”
 by Chris Martenson

The economic news these days can be readily parsed into two separate types: increasingly positive “survey” data and increasingly worse “real” data.

I recently wrote about the flaws in the survey reports, so I won’t spend more time here discussing why these reports are best taken with a very large grain of salt.

First, the survey data that was released today:

Image | Fuzzier Than Ever – The Latest GDP Report
Fuzzier Than Ever – The Latest GDP Report
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson
Thursday, April 30, 2009

Executive Summary 

  • GDP report for 1Q2009 is a mess of Fuzzy Numbers.
  • The surprising 2.2% increase in PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures, is discussed.
  • Ostensible signs suggest that the bottom is in, but the numbers do not line up at all with hard, factual data.
  • Sales tax receipts declined in first quarter.
  • The GDP report for the first quarter of 2009 is in serious conflict with actual state sales tax data.
  • Vehicle sales are down nearly twice as much as the 19% claimed by the BEA.
  • The extent to which investors are fooled by these government reports is the extent to which they risk losing a lot of money in the stock market.
  • Trust yourself.

As attendees of my seminars and regular readers know, I am deeply critical of the cheerleading spin cycle that exists between the government and the media, because it often inappropriately mixes facts, opinions, and beliefs. The aim, it would appear, is to foster optimism or confidence in the average investor.

Of course, as chronicled here many times, Wall Street lives off of the fees and products that it sells to retail investors, while the political machine favors a pacified, if not buoyant, electorate. Both of these aims are served by constantly spinning things to the upside.

While it is possible that "investors" are indeed optimistic, focusing on the "slightly more upbeat" report from the Fed and "signs that consumer spending rebounded," these claims deserve a bit of exploration.
Fuzzier Than Ever – The Latest GDP Report
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
Thursday, April 30, 2009

Executive Summary 

  • GDP report for 1Q2009 is a mess of Fuzzy Numbers.
  • The surprising 2.2% increase in PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures, is discussed.
  • Ostensible signs suggest that the bottom is in, but the numbers do not line up at all with hard, factual data.
  • Sales tax receipts declined in first quarter.
  • The GDP report for the first quarter of 2009 is in serious conflict with actual state sales tax data.
  • Vehicle sales are down nearly twice as much as the 19% claimed by the BEA.
  • The extent to which investors are fooled by these government reports is the extent to which they risk losing a lot of money in the stock market.
  • Trust yourself.

As attendees of my seminars and regular readers know, I am deeply critical of the cheerleading spin cycle that exists between the government and the media, because it often inappropriately mixes facts, opinions, and beliefs. The aim, it would appear, is to foster optimism or confidence in the average investor.

Of course, as chronicled here many times, Wall Street lives off of the fees and products that it sells to retail investors, while the political machine favors a pacified, if not buoyant, electorate. Both of these aims are served by constantly spinning things to the upside.

While it is possible that "investors" are indeed optimistic, focusing on the "slightly more upbeat" report from the Fed and "signs that consumer spending rebounded," these claims deserve a bit of exploration.
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