by
JW
Podcast
by
JW
by
JW
by
Gregor Macdonald
Executive Summary
- Why household balance sheets are worse off than advertised
- Why the recent rosy BLS jobs numbers actually mean bad news
- How the Fed is squeezing investor capital out of other traditional asset pools and into the stock market
- Expect to see the stock market moving higher in 2013; that is, until QE3 fails
- What to expect if QE3 fails sooner than anticipated
If you have not yet read Part I: The Future of Gold, Oil & the Dollar, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Market historians have recently started to point out that the current advance in the S&P500 is now 40 months old and has made gains of over 115% since the March 2009 lows. In other words, the doubling from the lows in price and the duration of the advance now late in its third year together suggest that a cyclical top is near. Furthermore, despite some noise in U.S. macro data – which has been briefly more hopeful, yet remains well within the phase of stagnation – earnings estimates have been coming down as the world economy continues to shift into lower gear.
Perhaps for the first time in a while, we can actually say that the Fed's decision to start QE3 was moderately anticipatory, in contrast to its ad-hoc and reactive policymaking over the past five years. It is not merely that the Fed soberly accepted that the economy was not getting better. The stagnant, tractionless macro data over the past year has spoken quite loudly to that fact. Indeed, the U.S. economy is merely treading water, and the Fed's move to QE3 serves as a sharp retort to those who would relentlessly attempt to portray stagnation as recovery.
Where Stock Prices Are Headed Over the Next Year
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldExecutive Summary
- Why household balance sheets are worse off than advertised
- Why the recent rosy BLS jobs numbers actually mean bad news
- How the Fed is squeezing investor capital out of other traditional asset pools and into the stock market
- Expect to see the stock market moving higher in 2013; that is, until QE3 fails
- What to expect if QE3 fails sooner than anticipated
If you have not yet read Part I: The Future of Gold, Oil & the Dollar, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Market historians have recently started to point out that the current advance in the S&P500 is now 40 months old and has made gains of over 115% since the March 2009 lows. In other words, the doubling from the lows in price and the duration of the advance now late in its third year together suggest that a cyclical top is near. Furthermore, despite some noise in U.S. macro data – which has been briefly more hopeful, yet remains well within the phase of stagnation – earnings estimates have been coming down as the world economy continues to shift into lower gear.
Perhaps for the first time in a while, we can actually say that the Fed's decision to start QE3 was moderately anticipatory, in contrast to its ad-hoc and reactive policymaking over the past five years. It is not merely that the Fed soberly accepted that the economy was not getting better. The stagnant, tractionless macro data over the past year has spoken quite loudly to that fact. Indeed, the U.S. economy is merely treading water, and the Fed's move to QE3 serves as a sharp retort to those who would relentlessly attempt to portray stagnation as recovery.
by
Gregor Macdonald
The ability of reflationary policy to mute the worst risks of debt deflation has been a source of enormous frustration for stock market bears ever since the 2008 collapse. Yes, the initial moderate rally out of the S&P500’s black hole was perhaps not so surprising in 2009. Bombed-out stock markets can always manage some sort of rally. But the ability of the rally to continue through 2010, and then 2011, and now 2012 has been quite vexing and painful for bearish investors.
Indeed, the entire post-2008 market phase has now produced an era of consistently poor performance for hedge funds. Recent data, for example, shows that an incredible 90% of hedge funds are underperforming the S&P500 through mid-September.
Will the pain continue?
The Future of Gold, Oil & the Dollar
by Gregor MacdonaldThe ability of reflationary policy to mute the worst risks of debt deflation has been a source of enormous frustration for stock market bears ever since the 2008 collapse. Yes, the initial moderate rally out of the S&P500’s black hole was perhaps not so surprising in 2009. Bombed-out stock markets can always manage some sort of rally. But the ability of the rally to continue through 2010, and then 2011, and now 2012 has been quite vexing and painful for bearish investors.
Indeed, the entire post-2008 market phase has now produced an era of consistently poor performance for hedge funds. Recent data, for example, shows that an incredible 90% of hedge funds are underperforming the S&P500 through mid-September.
Will the pain continue?
by
JW
by
JW
With up to 40% of food being wasted in the US – learning how to make better use of and utilize our hard-grown food is an important resiliency skill to acquire. Reducing the food waste stream will hopefully reduce our energy use as well.
http://eartheasy.com/blog/2012/05/5-simple-ways-to-reduce-food-waste/
5 Simple Ways to Reduce Food Waste
by JWWith up to 40% of food being wasted in the US – learning how to make better use of and utilize our hard-grown food is an important resiliency skill to acquire. Reducing the food waste stream will hopefully reduce our energy use as well.
http://eartheasy.com/blog/2012/05/5-simple-ways-to-reduce-food-waste/
by
JW
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