by
David Collum
Podcast
by
David Collum
Background
(1) http://disgu.st/~jon/books/david_collum-30_years_investing.pdf
(2) https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/david-b-collums-2010-year-review/50352
(3) https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/2011-year-review-david-collum/67586
(4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory
(5) http://lmgtfy.com/?q=How+do+I+google+something%3F
2012 Year in Review – Reference Links
by David CollumBackground
(1) http://disgu.st/~jon/books/david_collum-30_years_investing.pdf
(2) https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/david-b-collums-2010-year-review/50352
(3) https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/2011-year-review-david-collum/67586
(4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory
(5) http://lmgtfy.com/?q=How+do+I+google+something%3F
by
Gregor Macdonald
Executive Summary
- Peak Oil is a multifactorial concept
- Why the IEA forecasts aren't credible
- Why the data shows Peak Oil is alive & well
- Where oil prices will head in 2013
If you have not yet read A Tale of Two Forecasts, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The U.S. is currently experiencing its second oil production recovery since 1971, when its supply peaked over 9.5 mbpd.
The first recovery took place over a nine-year period from 1976-1985. That renaissance took U.S. production back up from a low of 8.0 mbpd to nearly 9.0 mbpd. And then, over the next twenty years, U.S. production would fall steadily to its recent nadir of 5 mbpd in 2008. Over the past four years (owing to onshore production in North Dakota and Texas), the U.S. has built back an impressive 1.5 mbpd and is currently producing over 6.5 mbpd of crude oil.
Before we get to the IEA Paris forecast for the future U.S. production, let's take a look at our own Energy Information Administration (EIA) Washington forecast. The IEA Paris forecast is more difficult to understand, as it conflates oil and natural gas liquids. By contrast, the EIA Washington forecast is more specifically focused on oil production, which is easier to compare to U.S. production history. (Remember: Natural gas liquids (NGLs) are not oil. More importantly, they do not contain the same energy as oil. A barrel of oil contains 6 GJ (gigajoules) of energy, but a barrel of NGL contains just 4 GJ.)
Here is the forecast to 2040, from the EIA's (Washington) recent Annual Energy Outlook:
Dissecting the Energy “Boom” Story
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldExecutive Summary
- Peak Oil is a multifactorial concept
- Why the IEA forecasts aren't credible
- Why the data shows Peak Oil is alive & well
- Where oil prices will head in 2013
If you have not yet read A Tale of Two Forecasts, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The U.S. is currently experiencing its second oil production recovery since 1971, when its supply peaked over 9.5 mbpd.
The first recovery took place over a nine-year period from 1976-1985. That renaissance took U.S. production back up from a low of 8.0 mbpd to nearly 9.0 mbpd. And then, over the next twenty years, U.S. production would fall steadily to its recent nadir of 5 mbpd in 2008. Over the past four years (owing to onshore production in North Dakota and Texas), the U.S. has built back an impressive 1.5 mbpd and is currently producing over 6.5 mbpd of crude oil.
Before we get to the IEA Paris forecast for the future U.S. production, let's take a look at our own Energy Information Administration (EIA) Washington forecast. The IEA Paris forecast is more difficult to understand, as it conflates oil and natural gas liquids. By contrast, the EIA Washington forecast is more specifically focused on oil production, which is easier to compare to U.S. production history. (Remember: Natural gas liquids (NGLs) are not oil. More importantly, they do not contain the same energy as oil. A barrel of oil contains 6 GJ (gigajoules) of energy, but a barrel of NGL contains just 4 GJ.)
Here is the forecast to 2040, from the EIA's (Washington) recent Annual Energy Outlook:
by
Gregor Macdonald
It was the best of times; it was the worst of times for the American public over the past month, as it was treated to two high-profile, but deeply conflicting, economic forecasts.
Despite declaring in 2008 that the age of cheap oil was over, the International Energy Agency (IEA) surprisingly announced last week that the United States would become the largest oil producer in the world by 2020. Hooray! This superlative declaration titillated U.S. media organizations, who understand quite well that Americans love to secure a #1 ranking in just about any category (save for prison incarceration, divorce rates, and obesity). As I explained to the Keiser Report, however, the IEA has done little more than produce an attention grabbing headline here. Simply ranking the 'top oil producer' in 2020 may mean much less than the public currently understands.
A Tale of Two Forecasts
by Gregor MacdonaldIt was the best of times; it was the worst of times for the American public over the past month, as it was treated to two high-profile, but deeply conflicting, economic forecasts.
Despite declaring in 2008 that the age of cheap oil was over, the International Energy Agency (IEA) surprisingly announced last week that the United States would become the largest oil producer in the world by 2020. Hooray! This superlative declaration titillated U.S. media organizations, who understand quite well that Americans love to secure a #1 ranking in just about any category (save for prison incarceration, divorce rates, and obesity). As I explained to the Keiser Report, however, the IEA has done little more than produce an attention grabbing headline here. Simply ranking the 'top oil producer' in 2020 may mean much less than the public currently understands.
by
leslie pitts
After taking the "red pill" and heading down the path of resiliency, growing your own food and becoming a gardener is a step many of us take and fall in love with. Some of us come from gardening and/or farming backgrounds and have years of experience with our hands in the soil. Some say its a labor of love. We experiment, learn, and grow. It is always challenging and rewarding. Here I share a recent discovery of a gardening technique that has given me a better understanding of natural growing and hopefully better results with less effort. I would like to introduce the Back to Eden gardening method.
It’s hard to argue with the facts, and the fact is that the Back to Eden method of gardening is producing excellent results. Paul Gautschi’s film, Back to Eden, provides all the information needed to get started, and viewers will find it peppered with quotes and anecdotes from the Bible, which are delightful enough even to the unreligious. Between the Internet and word of mouth, Back to Eden farms are popping up all over the place.
Touring a “Back to Eden” Garden
by leslie pittsAfter taking the "red pill" and heading down the path of resiliency, growing your own food and becoming a gardener is a step many of us take and fall in love with. Some of us come from gardening and/or farming backgrounds and have years of experience with our hands in the soil. Some say its a labor of love. We experiment, learn, and grow. It is always challenging and rewarding. Here I share a recent discovery of a gardening technique that has given me a better understanding of natural growing and hopefully better results with less effort. I would like to introduce the Back to Eden gardening method.
It’s hard to argue with the facts, and the fact is that the Back to Eden method of gardening is producing excellent results. Paul Gautschi’s film, Back to Eden, provides all the information needed to get started, and viewers will find it peppered with quotes and anecdotes from the Bible, which are delightful enough even to the unreligious. Between the Internet and word of mouth, Back to Eden farms are popping up all over the place.
by
JW
by
JW
by
JW
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