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Podcast

by Gregor Macdonald

Given emerging data in 2012, it's becoming increasingly clear that the post-war automobile era in the United States is now in well-articulated decline. Accordingly, it makes sense to note the beginning of a long-term supertrend that is just getting started: the resurrection of America’s rail system.

Getting on the Train
by Gregor Macdonald

Given emerging data in 2012, it's becoming increasingly clear that the post-war automobile era in the United States is now in well-articulated decline. Accordingly, it makes sense to note the beginning of a long-term supertrend that is just getting started: the resurrection of America’s rail system.

by Amanda Witman

Last year I was living with my children in a worn 1969 split-level ranch-style house on an acre, ten rural miles from the nearest town hub (technically a city, with a population of 12,000.)  This year we moved to a 1920s two-story Victorian on a tenth of an acre, right in the heart of that city.  I’d like to share how we made that decision and increased our resilience in the process.

Moving to Town
by Amanda Witman

Last year I was living with my children in a worn 1969 split-level ranch-style house on an acre, ten rural miles from the nearest town hub (technically a city, with a population of 12,000.)  This year we moved to a 1920s two-story Victorian on a tenth of an acre, right in the heart of that city.  I’d like to share how we made that decision and increased our resilience in the process.

by Gregor Macdonald

Executive Summary

  • How to cut household exposure to oil prices
  • Spending is shifting from road to rail transport. You need to get out in front of this.
  • How to take advantage of the energy arbitrage that rail transport will offer in future years
  • Important case studies of what's to come
  • The big change ahead (and the argument for optimism)

If you have not yet read Part I: Getting On The Train, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Portland, Oregon is a city well known internationally for its commitment to sustainability. Over the years, the downtown area has been wisely restored into a very pedestrian-friendly streetscape. And while Portland continues to have problems – mainly a weak economy that could benefit from greater diversification – the city continues to attract people from all over the world who are looking for a better place to ride out some of the problems now facing developed economies.

Over the past year, since moving to Portland myself, I've had a chance to do some accounting of how much I've reduced my own exposure to oil. Let me first say that getting oil out of the household budget was not my only reason for moving to Portland. However, as someone who started looking at these issues 10-15 years ago, the prospect of greatly reducing my oil consumption was a key factor in my decision to relocate.

Now, while it's true that reduced oil consumption is more common for everybody living here in Portland, the other important element (and this will seem obvious) is that living in other cities and regions typically means a greatly increased exposure to oil. So while the cost of food, medical care, and many goods is just as expensive here in Portland as elsewhere, it is now rather sobering to consider the burden of high oil prices in other regions from my new vantage point – especially given that oil has found a new equilibrium price around $100 a barrel.

By moving to Portland, we completely shifted the core of our energy consumption to natural gas and also electricity, which in the Pacific Northwest is largely sourced through hydropower. Electricity rates in the Pacific Northwest are either the lowest or among the lowest in the United States. Also, because of the rich offerings in public transportation choices, we were able to drop one of two cars. But there's more…

Reducing Your Exposure to Oil Prices
PREVIEW by Gregor Macdonald

Executive Summary

  • How to cut household exposure to oil prices
  • Spending is shifting from road to rail transport. You need to get out in front of this.
  • How to take advantage of the energy arbitrage that rail transport will offer in future years
  • Important case studies of what's to come
  • The big change ahead (and the argument for optimism)

If you have not yet read Part I: Getting On The Train, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Portland, Oregon is a city well known internationally for its commitment to sustainability. Over the years, the downtown area has been wisely restored into a very pedestrian-friendly streetscape. And while Portland continues to have problems – mainly a weak economy that could benefit from greater diversification – the city continues to attract people from all over the world who are looking for a better place to ride out some of the problems now facing developed economies.

Over the past year, since moving to Portland myself, I've had a chance to do some accounting of how much I've reduced my own exposure to oil. Let me first say that getting oil out of the household budget was not my only reason for moving to Portland. However, as someone who started looking at these issues 10-15 years ago, the prospect of greatly reducing my oil consumption was a key factor in my decision to relocate.

Now, while it's true that reduced oil consumption is more common for everybody living here in Portland, the other important element (and this will seem obvious) is that living in other cities and regions typically means a greatly increased exposure to oil. So while the cost of food, medical care, and many goods is just as expensive here in Portland as elsewhere, it is now rather sobering to consider the burden of high oil prices in other regions from my new vantage point – especially given that oil has found a new equilibrium price around $100 a barrel.

By moving to Portland, we completely shifted the core of our energy consumption to natural gas and also electricity, which in the Pacific Northwest is largely sourced through hydropower. Electricity rates in the Pacific Northwest are either the lowest or among the lowest in the United States. Also, because of the rich offerings in public transportation choices, we were able to drop one of two cars. But there's more…

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The U.S. is less prepared for contraction than the U.S.S.R. was
  • The pressure to print money and the spectre of runaway inflation
  • What we must learn from the Japan example (the U.S. is unlikely to tread a similar path)
  • Why you must expect and prepare for the rules to change

If you have not yet read Part I: Anticipating the Devolution of Big Government, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we surveyed the four critical dynamics that will lead to the devolution of Peak Government: massive borrowing, institutionalized mal-investment, erosion of trust in government, and diminishing returns on public debt.  In Part II, we consider how the devolution of Peak Government may play out in the real world.

We are indebted to author Dmitry Orlov for examining how apparently stable global empires can suddenly destabilize, much to the surprise of everyone involved.  Orlov experienced the collapse of the Soviet Union first hand, and in his book Reinventing Collapse, he contends that America is actually less prepared than the former U.S.S.R. to weather the collapse of Central State institutions.

As I noted in my first series on Peak Government, this does not mean government ceases to exist; what it does mean is that government shrinks and assumes a different role in society and the economy.

Though there are many obvious differences between the former U.S.S.R. and the U.S., Orlov’s primary point is that complex, apparently stable governments can destabilize rather quickly once invisible “tipping points” are reached…

Understanding the Economic Impact of Peak Government
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The U.S. is less prepared for contraction than the U.S.S.R. was
  • The pressure to print money and the spectre of runaway inflation
  • What we must learn from the Japan example (the U.S. is unlikely to tread a similar path)
  • Why you must expect and prepare for the rules to change

If you have not yet read Part I: Anticipating the Devolution of Big Government, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we surveyed the four critical dynamics that will lead to the devolution of Peak Government: massive borrowing, institutionalized mal-investment, erosion of trust in government, and diminishing returns on public debt.  In Part II, we consider how the devolution of Peak Government may play out in the real world.

We are indebted to author Dmitry Orlov for examining how apparently stable global empires can suddenly destabilize, much to the surprise of everyone involved.  Orlov experienced the collapse of the Soviet Union first hand, and in his book Reinventing Collapse, he contends that America is actually less prepared than the former U.S.S.R. to weather the collapse of Central State institutions.

As I noted in my first series on Peak Government, this does not mean government ceases to exist; what it does mean is that government shrinks and assumes a different role in society and the economy.

Though there are many obvious differences between the former U.S.S.R. and the U.S., Orlov’s primary point is that complex, apparently stable governments can destabilize rather quickly once invisible “tipping points” are reached…

by charleshughsmith

With the US elections approaching next week, as well as the threat of another fiscal cliff showdown looming, we asked contributing editor Charles Hugh Smith to revisit his eariler work on how the expansive Central State has come to dominate both private society (i.e., the community) and the marketplace, to the detriment of the nation’s social and economic stability.

Anticipating the Devolution of Big Government
by charleshughsmith

With the US elections approaching next week, as well as the threat of another fiscal cliff showdown looming, we asked contributing editor Charles Hugh Smith to revisit his eariler work on how the expansive Central State has come to dominate both private society (i.e., the community) and the marketplace, to the detriment of the nation’s social and economic stability.

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