by
JW
Podcast
by
Adam Taggart
Our good friend John Rubino over at DollarCollapse.com just released an analysis titled US Housing Bubble Enters Stage 2: Suddenly Motivated Sellers.
He reminds us that housing bubbles follow a predictable progression:
- Stage 1: Mania — Prices rise at an accelerating rate as factors like excess central bank liquidity/loose credit/hot foreign money drive a virtuous bidding cycle well above sustainably afforable levels.
- Stage 2: Peak — Increasingly jittery owners attempt to sell out before the party ends. Supply jumps as prices stagnate.
- Stage 3: Bust — As inventory builds, sellers start having to lower prices. This begins a vicious cycle: buyers go on strike not wanting to catch a falling knife, causing sellers to drop prices further.
Rubino cites recent statistics that may indicate the US national housing market is finally entering Stage 2 after a rip-roaring decade of recovery since the bursting of the 2007 housing bubble:
Trouble Ahead For The Housing Market
by Adam TaggartOur good friend John Rubino over at DollarCollapse.com just released an analysis titled US Housing Bubble Enters Stage 2: Suddenly Motivated Sellers.
He reminds us that housing bubbles follow a predictable progression:
- Stage 1: Mania — Prices rise at an accelerating rate as factors like excess central bank liquidity/loose credit/hot foreign money drive a virtuous bidding cycle well above sustainably afforable levels.
- Stage 2: Peak — Increasingly jittery owners attempt to sell out before the party ends. Supply jumps as prices stagnate.
- Stage 3: Bust — As inventory builds, sellers start having to lower prices. This begins a vicious cycle: buyers go on strike not wanting to catch a falling knife, causing sellers to drop prices further.
Rubino cites recent statistics that may indicate the US national housing market is finally entering Stage 2 after a rip-roaring decade of recovery since the bursting of the 2007 housing bubble:
by
Adam Taggart
So, we're in the midst of (yet) another rally in the markets. But this one feels different…
For those sitting on large cash positions, it's increasingly looking like the long-overdue and long-awaiting end to the secular bull market may indeed arrive this year.
There is NOTHING wrong with remaining 100% in cash and simply letting your cash appreciate realtive to stocks/bonds/etc when the correction hits.
But, if you want to have some upside exposure to the correction, now is a good time to consider how much of your portfolio to allocate to that strategy. And what to put it in. And to start putting small positions in place.
Technically, it continues to look like something broke at the start of 2018. The ruler-straight run-up in the major stock indeces seen over the past decade suddenly stopped as the year began. Since then, we've seen more price volatility than in the past several years combined.
And despite the most recent price action, both the Dow and the S&P 500 remain below their all-time-highs set in early January. And while the NADAQ is now higher, there are many reasons to be concerened about its ability to rise much further — a rationale I'll lay out shortly below.
Technical Red Flags
This latest rally is rising two important red flags.
The first is volume-related. This most recent rally has occured on exceptionally low volume, near the lowest levels seen over the past year.
This indicates that the optimism represented by today's buyers is not widespread across market participants (i.e., there's not a horde of buyers eager to keep pushing prices higher). This hints that the rally may soon run out of steam.
Low volume driving a rising market also suggests fewer buyers willing to step in to defend today's price levels if they start falling.
The second warning sign is that we're seeing Rising Wedge formations appearing in the major equity indices as we see in this chart…
The Case For Starting To Build A (Small) Short Position
PREVIEW by Adam TaggartSo, we're in the midst of (yet) another rally in the markets. But this one feels different…
For those sitting on large cash positions, it's increasingly looking like the long-overdue and long-awaiting end to the secular bull market may indeed arrive this year.
There is NOTHING wrong with remaining 100% in cash and simply letting your cash appreciate realtive to stocks/bonds/etc when the correction hits.
But, if you want to have some upside exposure to the correction, now is a good time to consider how much of your portfolio to allocate to that strategy. And what to put it in. And to start putting small positions in place.
Technically, it continues to look like something broke at the start of 2018. The ruler-straight run-up in the major stock indeces seen over the past decade suddenly stopped as the year began. Since then, we've seen more price volatility than in the past several years combined.
And despite the most recent price action, both the Dow and the S&P 500 remain below their all-time-highs set in early January. And while the NADAQ is now higher, there are many reasons to be concerened about its ability to rise much further — a rationale I'll lay out shortly below.
Technical Red Flags
This latest rally is rising two important red flags.
The first is volume-related. This most recent rally has occured on exceptionally low volume, near the lowest levels seen over the past year.
This indicates that the optimism represented by today's buyers is not widespread across market participants (i.e., there's not a horde of buyers eager to keep pushing prices higher). This hints that the rally may soon run out of steam.
Low volume driving a rising market also suggests fewer buyers willing to step in to defend today's price levels if they start falling.
The second warning sign is that we're seeing Rising Wedge formations appearing in the major equity indices as we see in this chart…
by
Chris Martenson
Real estate offers a path to build equity and income outside of the Wall Street casino, in ways that take advantages of tax incentives not available to stock and bond holders. It can also offer purchasing power protection during periods of currency devaluation.
But, education and timing are very important in this space. How can the novice investor get involved while reducing their risk of making costly mistakes? Real estate markets can enter price bubble territory (as many are in now) — how can you determine when it's safe or too risky to invest?
We've invited Robert Helms and Russ Gray, better known as The Real Estate Guys, onto the podcast this week to provide a "Real Estate Investing 101" overview for the Peak Prosperity audience. In it, they cover the different ways to invest, how to identify which approach is best for you given your personal goals and risk appetite, and how to get started educating yourself towards becoming an active investor.
Helms & Gray: Real Estate Investing 101
by Chris MartensonReal estate offers a path to build equity and income outside of the Wall Street casino, in ways that take advantages of tax incentives not available to stock and bond holders. It can also offer purchasing power protection during periods of currency devaluation.
But, education and timing are very important in this space. How can the novice investor get involved while reducing their risk of making costly mistakes? Real estate markets can enter price bubble territory (as many are in now) — how can you determine when it's safe or too risky to invest?
We've invited Robert Helms and Russ Gray, better known as The Real Estate Guys, onto the podcast this week to provide a "Real Estate Investing 101" overview for the Peak Prosperity audience. In it, they cover the different ways to invest, how to identify which approach is best for you given your personal goals and risk appetite, and how to get started educating yourself towards becoming an active investor.
by
Chris Martenson
Some day, today's era of insane asset price bubbles will end. But how? Will it unwind in an orderly and polite way, as the world's central planners hope? Or will be disorderly, resulting in painful portfolio losses and mass layoffs?
Michael Pento, fund manager and author of The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse returns to the podcast this week to offer his prediction that events will most likely take the latter route. In fact, he sees the developing inversion of the yield curve as a dependable precursor to the US economy entering recession as soon as this Fall:
Michael Pento: When The Yield Curve Inverts Soon, The Next Recession Will Start
by Chris MartensonSome day, today's era of insane asset price bubbles will end. But how? Will it unwind in an orderly and polite way, as the world's central planners hope? Or will be disorderly, resulting in painful portfolio losses and mass layoffs?
Michael Pento, fund manager and author of The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse returns to the podcast this week to offer his prediction that events will most likely take the latter route. In fact, he sees the developing inversion of the yield curve as a dependable precursor to the US economy entering recession as soon as this Fall:
Total 6348 items
