Consumer Economy
Data has returned. Oddly, my automatic updates from “FRED” ended up not automatically updating much of anything – I had to manually ask FRED to download the latest data for most every series I watch. Was that my bug or theirs? I’ll see what happens next week.
Ed Dowd mentioned that the FRED charts showing “With a Disability” (which is missing one month’s data) didn’t update the chart properly at the FRED site. I guess this is their first Schumer Shutdown. It’s not like confidence is collapsing in institutions or anything.
- Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S) 4.13M +20.0K (+0.49% m/m)
- Retail Sales (RSAFS) 733B +189M (+0.03% m/m)
- CPI All Urban (CPIAUCSL) +0.20% m/m (prior +0.31% m/m) +2.34% y/y
- Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) 159M +64.0K (+0.04% m/m)
Existing Home sales remain quite low – the range of 4.0-4.5M sales per month is at an 8-year low, with highs above 6.5M/month set back in 2021. Retail Sales (1.9% annualized) are NOT keeping up with inflation – and this is the October data. What would November look like, with those half-empty parking lots during “Black Friday”? Retail Sales in-the-weeds details: Motor Vehicles -0.23%, Non-Store -0.72%, Food & Beverage +0.21%, Clothing -0.72%. Not-BOOMING.
The CPI data appears badly damaged – no data was collected for October, and partially fabricated data was concocted for November. Outcome: “very little inflation!”
Today’s Doctored CPI Inflation Release is like a Bad Joke, but Very Serious (though it Suits the Administration’s Narrative)
(source – wolfstreet)
And – payrolls; headline number +64K. Note that the after-3-months “revisions” to headline payroll numbers have ranged from -1K to -160K during 2025; I’d guess that the current headline number will be revised into a “decline”, which is recessionary. Here’s nonfarm payrolls, put through an MA3 to smooth things out. The trend: not BOOMING.
With a Disability
- Population 16+ (LNU00074597) 36,638k +1508k +4.29%
- Labor Force (LNU01074597) 9,592k +819k +9.34%
- Employed (LNU02074597) 8,924k +912k +11.38%
- Not In Labor Force (LNU05074597) 27,046k +689k +2.61%
The employed population saw a massive increase (percentage: +11.4%) in “With a Disability”.
by argentum47 
