First a note: This Insider will take the form of a running commentary. The new additions will be time stamped and located lower down, so as you scroll down, the material will be newer.
To begin, let me say that I am highly sensitive and empathetic to the extreme disappointment and shock that many of the people I know well are experiencing today. It’s going to take time for the dust and the emotions to settle here, on all sides, although I sincerely believe things will not be as bad as they seem today.
When GWB was in power I thought nothing could be worse, and any President would be better, and then Obama came along promising a lot of hope and change. None of that materialized for me as the most target rich environment of criminal financial activity went completely unpunished under Obama, Guantanamo remained open, drone strikes increased, and new countries were bombed without cause or even provocation.
My point being, no matter what intentions Obama arrived with the ship of state barely budged course from GWB to BO, and now I rather doubt it will budge much further with Trump installed. Sure, some, but probably not as much as many might be fearing right in this moment.
My view, as always, is to trust what people do more than what they say, which puts me at odds with those who hold the opposite orientation, but that’s who I am. So we’re just going to have to see who Trump appoints to his team, as that will tell me everything I need to know about whether the ship of state will chart a new course or not.
The critical positions to me are Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Chief of Staff. I’m less concerned about Treasury at this moment, but will be more concerned if/when that next financial crisis comes along. Well, since it’s coming, perhaps I should be equally concerned. Okay, I just talked myself into that position. Let’s add Treasury Secretary to that list.
Clearly, the election of Trump was a shocker, in the same sense that Brexit was a shocker. Almost identical in both cases. Polls had the exact wrong outcome predicted, by almost identical amounts.
One explanation for this is that people thinking of voting for Trump did not feel comfortable saying so to pollsters. The other explanation is that the pollsters, for whatever reasons, failed to conduct their polls properly.