Home Oil Makes a 12-Month Low; Guidance from Col. Hackworth

Oil Makes a 12-Month Low; Guidance from Col. Hackworth

user profile picture davefairtex Dec 11, 2022
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There were a pair of economic reports this week:

  • The Producer Price Index by Commodity (PPIACO): -0.72% month over month (m/m), +9.07% year over year (y/y). Producer price inflation is falling – it is less than half of what it was at the peak (23%) in October, 2021.
  • Durable Goods: Orders +1.06% m/m, New Orders: +0.61% m/m, shipments: +0.41%. New highs for everything. Positive.

No recession visible from this data; the falling PPI is probably driven by the plunging crude oil prices over the last 12 months – down $50-$60 from the high.

Rates were mixed this week: the one and three month rates fell, while the longer rates ticked higher. The market/CME (Source) is projecting a 78% chance of a 50 basis points increase at next week’s Fed meeting, and a 22% chance of a 75 bp increase. The labor market has not yet fallen apart – it remains relatively tight. I’m guessing that’s due to the hangover from the initial wave of disability from the 46 million people who signed up for the 8-mouse booster. See injury frequency at the ICAN (V-Safe) dashboard (Source – ICAN): 33% reported “unable to perform normal activities/missed work or school/required medical care.” Maybe that’s why 15% of the first-shot-vaxxed never got shot #2. (268 million Americans got dose #1, while 228 million received #1 and #2).

So, my current gut feeling: Powell will stay the course, in terms of his not-pivoting during next Wednesday’s press conference (at 14:30 Eastern). Market is predicting a 50 bp increase at the following (Feb 1 2023) meeting, although only with a 49% chance. So. 50 bp now, and 50 bp later, which puts Fed Funds just under 5% by early Feb.

The buck tried to rally this week, but mostly failed, up just 0.30 [+0.29%] to 104.80. To me it looks like the buck is struggling to put in a low here after falling nine points in nine weeks. The weekly/monthly downtrend remains in place.

In spite of the dollar’s slight rise, gold rose too, up 8.10 [+0.45%] to 1810.70. Gold fell early in the week, and spent the rest of the week rallying, managing to close back above the 200 MA. Gold also made a new 5-month high this week as well. Gold/Euros inched higher [+0.23%], but remains below the 200 moving average (MA). Gold’s Open Interest continues to fall, dropping 12k contracts. We last saw these OI levels back in late 2018, when gold was trading at around $1,200.

For context – this week I’ll show the COT (commitment of traders) report. The COT is a weekly report, which comes out a week delayed (because its too useful), and it shows us which trading group has how many long and short contracts: the trading groups comprise commercials, non-commercials, and non-reportables. This week’s COT shows a relatively low level of commercial (bankster) shorts, and also, a low level of non-commercial (hedge fund) longs.  My guess: the banksters don’t want to roll the dice short, and the hedgies aren’t interested in going long.  Usually, the banksters get it right.  Roughly speaking, when the blue line (hedgie longs) crosses the red line (bankster shorts), that signals a major low. Which it did about three weeks ago (gold=1630), as well as in the fall of 2018 (gold=1200).

Silver sold off fairly hard on Monday, but then rallied for the rest of the week to close at a new 10-month high. Silver is well above its 200 MA, and appears to be in a strong uptrend. Silver is outperforming gold, which tends to be bullish for the metals.

The miners had a bad week, with XAU falling 3.62%, dropping back below the 200 MA. This is a divergence from the metals, and is generally seen as bearish. Ratios: GDX:Gold -3.39% (bearish), GDXJ:GDX -1.30% (bearish), Gold/Silver ratio -1.49% (bullish). Part of the reason for the drop in the mining shares is the drop in SPX this week.

the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 3.37%, closing back below the 200 MA. The “swing high” candle print was moderately bearish. Sector map was bearish too: utilities (-0.28%) and sickcare (-1.30%)  did best, while energy (-9.23%) and communications (-5.06%) did worst. Ouch. A bad week for the energy sector. Looks like SPX ran into resistance at that 200 MA.

The master resource (crude oil) had an awful week, losing 8.96 [-11.20%], closing at 71.02, falling five days out of five. That’s a new 12-month low. Ouch again. Crude is in a strong downtrend. Gasoline fell too, losing 0.22 [-9.84%] to 2.06. It was a new 12-month low for gasoline as well.

In spite of the new low for crude, the Biden-Handlers continue to drain the SPR, sucking out 2.1 million barrels from our emergency reserve last week.  Here’s the drain-to-date on a yearly candlestick chart – it shows a loss of 387 MILLION barrels for 2022. There is no “emergency”, oil is around $70, and those Biden-Handlers are still sucking the oil out as though it was theirs to play with. Maybe someone should ask them why? Preferably under oath? How about: establishing an SPR Draining Commission? A guy can hope.

Since energy = civilization, the draining of the SPR by the Biden-Handlers is a serious and not-well-understood threat to the health and safety of all normal Americans. If this were executed by stealth by a foreign adversary (say – the CCP, or Bad Vlad Putin) we’d consider it an attack on the homeland, and it would warrant a military response.

From a chart perspective, Martin Armstrong calls this sort of dramatic change a “waterfall move” down. It is similar to what happened to the drop in silver content of Roman coins that marked the end of the Roman Empire. This plunge looks similar; given civilization’s reliance on energy, this really is an End of Empire event. I originally thought the Biden-Handlers were only doing this as an election gimmick. It now appears to be much more sinister. I plead guilty to having a certain amount of normalcy bias.

Consider: our hybrid war opponents destroyed Europe’s natgas supply after prodding Russia into attacking Ukraine, which is now leading inexorably (and predictably) to the de-industrialization of Western Europe. At the same time, this same group is systematically eviscerating America’s emergency energy reserve, which insures this nation will have no lifeboat if global oil production suddenly strikes an iceberg. Tanks won’t move, planes won’t fly, destroyers won’t steam, it will lead directly to a de facto civilian-and-military national lockdown.

The ongoing oil drain, occuring for no legitimate reason, makes me now think this whole op was planned by the Biden-Handlers – both the EU-de-industrialization op, as well as the U.S. reserve-oil-stripping op. Sure seems like the Handlers aren’t defending the Constitution of the United States.  In fact, the Handlers appear to be working overtime to destroy the country. When will the non-Uniparty reps in Congress wake up and take notice? Will they ever?



Yuval Noah Harari | Klaus Schwab Lead Advisor (Source – rumble);   [2020] first 30 seconds: “What Will Happen to Politics In Your Country When Somebody In San Francisco or Bejing Knows the Entire Medical and Personal History of Politician, Every Judge and Journalist In Your Country Including All of the Corrupt Dealings?” In literally 30 seconds, Yuval reveals (unintentionally?) the WEF/Intel “method of action” as to how they exercise control. Although Yuval got the city wrong: he should have said “Davos.”

Tulsi Responds to WEF Webpage: “I’ve Literally Not Had Anything to Do With the World Economic Forum” (Source – rumble/DrDrew); 2m18. “I’ve never gone to any of their events. I didn’t graduate from any (Young Global Leaders Academy). So I’ve literally not had anything to do with the World Economic Forum.”  If true – how much of the WEF’s “penetration” is bullshit?

Merkel Admits Minsk Agreement was to Trick Russia (Source – armstrong); “Merkel admitted that they negotiated in bad faith with Putin simply to allow Ukraine time to fortify itself thereby buying time to build its army.” If true, then the Ukraine component of our opponent’s European de-industrialization plan has been in place for at least eight years.


Senator Kyrsten Sinema Leaves Senate Democrats (Source – armstrong); a Uniparty independent or a real independent?

Elon Musk sacks 80% of Twitter staff as company descends into chaos (Source – lbc);  Censorship chaos.  Our opponents are not pleased.

Elon Musk tells Jack Dorsey ‘important’ Twitter files were ‘hidden’ from bosses, suggests some were ‘deleted’ (Source – fox); a coverup, exposed.

Twitter Files part two reveals ‘visibility filtering’ used at highest levels to ‘suppress what people see’ (Source – fox);  “We control visibility quite a bit,” a Twitter engineer admitted, and two Twitter employees confirmed to Weiss. “And we control the amplification of your content quite a bit. And normal people do not know how much we do.”

Twitter Files Part 3 reveals what led to Trump’s removal from social media platform (Source – fox); “Before the riots, the company was engaged in an inherently insane/impossible project, trying to create an ever-expanding, ostensibly rational set of rules to regulate every conceivable speech situation that might arise between humans,” Taibbi wrote. “This project was preposterous yet its leaders were unable to see this, having become infected with groupthing, coming to believe – sincerely – that it was Twitter’s responsibility to control, as much as possible, what people could talk about, how often, and with whom.”  Twitter censorship groupthink = Mass Formation.


China’s Xi at Saudi palace to meet royals on Mideast trip (Source – yahoo); China is the top oil importer in the world. About 50% comes from the Persian Gulf.   (Source – worldstopexports)

Biden Admin Drained Strategic Petroleum Reserve to Save ‘Global Economy’: White House Adviser (Source – ET); “….We were told it will take us time to increase production, it would take us six months, seven months to increase production and bring that to market. They thought that would be by the end of the year.”  The cover story.


American journalist Grant Wahl dies after collapsing at Qatar World Cup (Source – CNN); died suddenly at age 49. Cause of death is unknown at this time.

US pathologist falsely claims Covid-19 vaccines causing cancer (Source – AFP/factcheck); Dr Ryan Cole is making an impact.

EPISODE 297: BLEEDING TRUTH (Source – bitchute/Bigtree/Cole); starts @1:03:43, about 1 hour.  Del & camera crew visits Dr Cole’s lab.  Graphene?  Amoebas?  Blood clots?  Mass Spec?  Dr Cole tries to answer all these questions, and more. Microscopes are used. Blood is taken, then “vaccinated.” Result: “The cells don’t lie.” And: “this platform is dangerous.” Unaddressed: “snake venom.”

Country Singer’s Death Not Related to COVID-19 Vaccine (Source – factcheck); “the majority of people who receive the vaccines experience minor, temporary side effects or none at all….It’s also worth noting that Flint received his second vaccine dose more than a year and a half before his death.” Extracting value from a fact-check: notice what was omitted, and flip the script: 1) fact-checker didn’t say if/when Mr Flint had a booster – so he probably did, and 2) fact-checker just tacitly admitted that up to 49% of vax recipients may have serious post-vax adverse events.  Its the shot until proven otherwise, and this fact-checker didn’t prove otherwise.

Face masks may return amid holiday ‘tripledemic’ of covid, flu and RSV (Source – Washington Post); Walensky, Topol, Pan, Hochul weigh in. WAPO quotes a mask study that isn’t a gold-standard RCT. Best case: it describes what happens to really scared people (“always wear masks”), as well as the placebo effect. Prediction: WAPO – a modern day Völkischer Beobachter – goes under when the full truth emerges.

Australian Senator Gerard Rennick’s Amazing Vax Rant Leaves Opposition Parties Angry (Source – rumble/independent); 10m:18. Must see. He makes Ron Johnson look laid back.

News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller (source – substack); A weekly “Died Suddenly” log.

Vitamin C improves gut Bifidobacteria in humans (Source – hazan); “Patients receiving ascorbic acid supplementation had increased abundance of Bifidobacterium in their gut microbiome, which may help to explain some of the apparent health benefits and antiviral properties of vitamin C.” Bifido is plentiful when we are young, and it declines as we age. High Bifido is associated with less-severe Covid-19 outcomes. SC2 is often detected in stool samples months after the nasal swabs turn negative.

House passes defense bill that rescinds military Covid vaccine mandate (Source – CNN);  Military forced-vaccination is just about over. What’s more, CNN isn’t shrieking and calling for the end of the world. The tone of the article – and the lack of pushback in Congress suggests: we have arrived at a major turning point.

The Twitter Files keep getting more interesting. The bulk of the staff appears to have been infected with totalitarian groupthink/Mass Formation; this makes the 80% drop in employees a positive outcome. In addition to the groupthink, the effort was also directed by government – paid for by You and Me.  I’m sure more reveals are coming. Can you imagine a non-shadow-banned Twitter? The threats coming from the EU suggests this prospect really disturbs the other side.

The Armstrong article on Merkel, about how this whole Ukraine op was put into play back during the days of the Minsk agreement (8 years ago), strongly suggests the Ukraine op was a part of a long term plan by our opponents, who were targeting Russia.  Because – “climate change”?  Peak Oil?  Pole Shift?  An upcoming Maunder Minimum?  We can’t know for sure, but we should keep our eyes peeled.

Vax Mandates have been stopped for our warfighters.  I really hope most of the troops have avoided long term harm, for their sake, and for the sake of the country. The lack of fuss in the CNN article is key. “Ok, the shot mandate is over.” Yawn. No spin at all. Better than I expected. Good news.

They’re still fact-checking “died suddenly”, although not very effectively. I do notice that in today’s died-suddenly story, CNN editors avoided the use of the phrase, and instead are using the word “collapsed.” Looks like the “died suddenly” video (for all its faults) did have an impact.

While Event 201 reassured the perps they’d be able to muzzle vaccine deaths and get away with it (and they’ve certainly put a lot of wood behind this particular arrow), I do not think this will play out the way they war gamed it. What will they do?

It is commonly observed that “No Plan Survives Contact with the Enemy.” Since we’re engaged in a Hybrid War, I thought I’d consult one of the most-decorated small-unit commanders in U.S. history: Colonel David Hackworth. He wrote the list below years ago (Source – independent/Hackworth). I miss the Colonel, who opposed the Iraq War, and was a decorated combat veteran – a true subject matter expert. He died back in 2005, at age 74.  ( at archive)

Col. Hackworth suggests, when operating in a combat zone:

  • Never use trails.
  • Always take it for granted that the enemy’s watching.
  • Always have a go-to-hell plan.
  • Never assume anything.
  • Always expect the unexpected.
  • Talk to the Grunts, they always have the best feel for what’s going down.
  • Keep operations sledgehammer simple and remember: if it can be fucked up, it will be.
  • Train your force like a good football coach. Teamwork is the key and this is done by relentlessly repeating squad drills over and over until they are executed automatically and flawlessly. Then do them again!
  • And remember, squads who live by the basics of their trade make great armies; armies don’t make great squads. And these squads must be perfectly trained in the basic fundamentals of the killing trade.
  • And most importantly, NEVER, NEVER be in a hurry.

Viewed through this lens, we don’t really have to wonder what he’d think about “Operation Warp Speed”, or their “ticking clock”. Do our opponents have a go-to-hell plan? From what I can tell, when things go wrong, they double down, doing even more of what doesn’t work. Example: they try to muzzle, gaslight, and effectively kill the vaccine injured, rather than flipping the script and taking the opportunity to look kindly and benign by helping the “wounded vaxxed heroes” to heal. Likewise, they appear to be in a hurry. Lastly – do we think they care about what the grunts have to say? Grunts fly coach, not private, and one key attraction of being a member of this club is never, ever having to associate with a grunt. Heck, grunts will soon be replaced by robots. Or so they imagine. How does this end? My guess: they’ll be evacuating from the rooftops by helicopter in a few more years.

Our recent victories:

  • Twitter Files release, an attempted coverup by Mr. Russiagate, which failed, which makes everything that comes out much more credible. If Mr. Russiagate were an A player, he would have done nothing and remained in place.
  • Military Vax Mandates are over. More importantly, even CNN isn’t complaining. That feels like a trend change.
  • China’s Zero Covid is over. Many of the protesters will tragically pay for this victory with their lives (the CCP does not tolerate protest, because it makes them lose face), but due to their bravery, they were able to alter the trajectory of policy in their country. This is also a trend change, with a ton of implications.
  • “Died Suddenly” is now a meme, so much so that using this phrase now appears to be Verboten. At least at CNN anyway.
  • Fauci is out of power.

We have a long journey ahead. It is important to celebrate the victories. And, going forward, we might consider: expecting the unexpected, keeping things simple, assuming the enemy is watching, having a go-to-hell plan, and never being in a hurry. Lastly: we should talk to the grunts. They have the best feel for what is going down.

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