The master resource just keeps slogging higher, rising +3.98 [+4.58%] to 90.81, breaking out to the new 8-year high on Friday. Is it geopolitics? Shortages? Lack of exploration over the past two years? The end of the pandemic? Yes, I think so.
Fun fact: OPEC has raised its production quotas by 400,000 bpd, but the oil exporting nations were not able to (or maybe, “did not”) meet the quotas. There was a glut in 2020. Now there are shortages. The oil market is “inelastic” – relatively small differences in supply vs demand can move prices fairly dramatically. That’s what we are seeing now.
There were some economic releases this week:
- Nonfarm Payrolls: headline +467k [+0.31% m/m],way above consensus 150k.Avg hourly earnings +0.7% m/m.
- Durable Goods: orders -0.69% m/m, shipments +0.97%.That projects weakness ahead.
- Auto/Light Truck Sales: +16.63% m/m, a huge rebound off the “supply chain issue” lows.
Wolf discusses the Payrolls report – “for the pedants in the class”, as a math professor of mine used to say. [FD: I never actually saw any evidence that these “pedants” actually existed.] A lot of numbers were re-adjusted due to the pandemic.
Today’s Jobs Report Solves Some Headscratcher Mysteries
The Pandemic wreaked havoc on seasonal patterns; and “seasonally adjusted” numbers often misfired.
by westcoastjan 
