Home Oil hits $90; Shoes Left To Drop

Oil hits $90; Shoes Left To Drop

user profile picture davefairtex Feb 07, 2022
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The master resource just keeps slogging higher, rising +3.98 [+4.58%] to 90.81, breaking out to the new 8-year high on Friday. Is it geopolitics? Shortages? Lack of exploration over the past two years? The end of the pandemic? Yes, I think so.

Fun fact: OPEC has raised its production quotas by 400,000 bpd, but the oil exporting nations were not able to (or maybe, “did not”) meet the quotas. There was a glut in 2020. Now there are shortages. The oil market is “inelastic” – relatively small differences in supply vs demand can move prices fairly dramatically. That’s what we are seeing now.

Will OPEC+ Actually Deliver The Extra Barrels It Promised?

There were some economic releases this week:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls: headline +467k [+0.31% m/m],way above consensus 150k.Avg hourly earnings +0.7% m/m.
  • Durable Goods: orders -0.69% m/m, shipments +0.97%.That projects weakness ahead.
  • Auto/Light Truck Sales: +16.63% m/m, a huge rebound off the “supply chain issue” lows.

Wolf discusses the Payrolls report – “for the pedants in the class”, as a math professor of mine used to say.  [FD: I never actually saw any evidence that these “pedants” actually existed.]  A lot of numbers were re-adjusted due to the pandemic.

Today’s Jobs Report Solves Some Headscratcher Mysteries

The Pandemic wreaked havoc on seasonal patterns; and “seasonally adjusted” numbers often misfired. We knew that since mid-2020. Today, some of it was resolved.

Even though the payrolls report was positive, it didn’t move the markets too much.  In fact, at 8:30 am on Friday (the time of the payrolls release), both gold and equities sold off, but they both soon reversed.  It was a bit of a puzzle for me.

The buck reversed direction this week and plunged – it fell 4 days out of 5, losing -1.84% on the week and dropped back below both the 9 and 50 MA lines. It was a fairly dramatic sell-off – mirroring a large rally in the Euro.

So, what caused it?  Just a guess: many European nations (especially the smaller ones) are eyeing an end to the science-denying lockdown-and-mask nonsense, with Denmark leading the way.  I listed the nations last week that have scheduled lifting of restrictions.  I think this will only get larger over time.

Of course, Macron predictably can’t seem to let go of his forced vaccination plan, and neither can the birthplace-of-Hitler, Austria.  Both countries need a Canadian Trucker intervention.  “Someone” really enjoys their rules.

Anyhow – the daily chart for the buck – money seems to be headed back into the Euro, at least for now:

Equities rallied this week, rising +1.55%, and printing a reasonably-strong reversal candle pattern, although the rally faded a bit at end of week.  As a result of the fade, I’m not sure this is an actual bullish reversal for equities.  Part of the issue for me is crappy debt, which is up next.  Even so, the equity sector map was mostly bullish, with energy [+4.75%], financials [+3.44%], and consumer discretionary [+3.42%] in the lead.

Here’s the crappy debt daily chart – JNK rallied at the start of the week, then gave it all back and then some by Friday’s close.  JNK fell -0.96% on the week, making a new 16-month low.  JNK is a risk-on asset (crappy companies with BBB- debt tend to die in hard times), and for whatever reason, JNK doesn’t seem quite as subject to…shall we say…the attention paid to the big indexes such as SPX, DJI, and NDX.  The new low for JNK, on Friday, isn’t a great look, even though the candle print looks somewhat bullish.  Crappy debt remains in a fairly strong downtrend.  All of the lower lows: risk off, and a downtrend.

Even though the Euro rallied substantially, gold didn’t move up all that much, rising +16.83 [+0.94%] – this tells you that gold declined in real terms on the week.  Silver was virtually unchanged, up just +0.03 [+0.13%].  Basically, PM went nowhere.

I had hoped that silver would rally once the COMEX delivery date passed.  That didn’t happen.  Part of the problem appears to be semi-mysterious spikes down (in both gold and silver) just before market open.  This happened on both Thursday and Friday.  Prices bounce back within a few hours, but neither metal appears able to sustain any sort of rally right now.

That’s just where things are.

Palladium fell -85.94 [-3.62%] to 2287.10.   Why do we care again?  I use palladium (at least for now) as an indicator of “Wag The Dog – Russia Edition.”  The price drop this week seems to hint that, at least, things aren’t getting worse.  The Permanent War Weasels in Washington (Head Weasel: Lindsey Graham) are of course extremely enthusiastic about whipping up a winter war with nuclear-armed Russia, but palladium seems to suggest that things didn’t get worse this week.

America: Designed by Geniuses, Run by Corrupt Idiots.

Just in case you don’t know where the Most Important Country Ever happens to be – I’ve helpfully included a map. Just in case.  Our Warmongers in Washington tell us that the Borders of the Ukraine are Inviolable, and that the US will defend these sacred borders to the last breath of someone-else’s-child.  Because – Burisma held up their end of the bargain, and paid Hunter that well-earned $50k/month.  And a lot of other reasons besides: Biden-Handler poll numbers, Defense/Industrial profits, Three Letter Agency budgets, and so on.

And now, the news items that caught my eye

Facebook’s Stock Plunges After Profit Declines

Gloomy outlook startles investors as steep spending cuts into tech giant’s profits

That, and membership declined.  Turns out, censorship isn’t profitable.  Will Zuck do a rethink?  No chance. He’s one of those WEF “Young Global Leaders.”  Four words: “breach of fiduciary duty.”  To the shareholders.  Some of whom lost a ton of money this week. The 26% one-day drop was really astonishing.

A List of Young Global Leaders

WEF Young Global Leaders include: Anderson Cooper, Nate Silver, Chelsea Clinton, Sergei Brin, Leonardo Di Caprio, Jack Ma, Larry Page, Mark Zuckerberg, Pete Buttigieg, Tom Cotton. And many more.

Proof of Vaccination Not Effective in Battling Omicron, Israeli Experts Warn

The Health Ministry is likely to recommend later this week that the government abolish the Green Pass program, which restricts entry into many venues to people who are vaccinated, recovered from the coronavirus or recently tested negative. Many experts have argued for weeks that the Green Pass is pointless given the current high infection rate.

Uber-vaccinated-and-boosted Israel is cancelling the Green Pass…because – pandemic is ending.  And of course, the shots don’t work.

Pandemic is ending. No need for Zucker any longer. Now, its time for him to collect his reward.  This is causing a bit of consternation in the Jan 6 committee in Congress.  “OMG we are losing our Air Cover!”

Another sign the pandemic is ending:the GOP Oligarchy-factotums awake from their long, long slumber.  “Oh look.  The Trucker parade. Let’s jump in front of it before it’s too late!” Good idea, guys.

This is a poll of Canadians regarding Omicron and related issues. Dec-Jan Omicron incidence:20% of respondents report a C19 infection in their household. Experience among the Omicron infected across all age brackets: 48% mild, 48% moderate, 2% hospitalized. People’s personal risk estimates for hospitalization (age 18-24): 10%!!

My analysis: actually, getting Omicron has reduced the fear a great deal.  My read: “Whoa, so I wasn’t hospitalized after all. And neither was Mom or Dad. All this fuss over the flu?”

That may help explain why the Truckers have been so successful. Their timing was perfect. I’m guessing this same fear-reduction-by-experience transformation is playing out throughout the world. We owe a debt of gratitude to “the mouse that gave us Omicron.”

Even though the pandemic is ending, the CDC is desperate for the Plebes to remain terrified.  It appears as though masking will be the very last bit of tyranny we pry from their cold, dark talons.

FDA will rigorously review vaccines for children under 5, surgeon general says

“Please know that the FDA will not cut any corners in their review process” ~ Vivek Murthy

Why do we think this fine WEF Young Global Leader (and on the side, Vice-Admiral, the US Surgeon General Murthy) felt the need to reassure the public about the FDA review?

U.S. CDC backs full approval of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine

The vaccine will now be sold under the brand name as Spikevax.

Spikevax. Just the thing I want in my baby’s arm. Unfortunately, it doesn’t just stay in the arm. The name alone makes me vaccine hesitant.

Meanwhile, President Grandpa’s handlers are scrambling to improve their awful poll numbers.  Here are the approaches I’ve seen.

Biden aims to reduce cancer deaths by 50% over next 25 years

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden on Wednesday set a 25-year timeline to cut in half the cancer death rate, a lofty but perhaps unrealistic goal that is meant to “supercharge” an initiative started when he was vice president to eradicate the disease that killed his older son, Beau.

Nixon declared War on Cancer – back in 1971. Nixon seems to be the Grandpa-Handler’s Spirit Animal.  Or something.

So, President Grandpa, I have an idea:

Effect of Vitamin D3 Supplements on Development of Advanced Cancer

When stratified by BMI, there was a significant reduction for the vitamin D arm in incident metastatic or fatal cancer among those with normal BMI (BMI<25: HR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.45-0.86])

Translated: vitamin D, at 2000 IU/day, for people with a normal BMI, resulted in 38% less cancer incidence over a 5 year period.

It could also cut flu deaths in half.  And it would eliminate almost all the COVID-19 deaths!

I’m sure the Biden-Handlers will get right on it.  Vitamin D: Saving Lives, for $12/year.

‘The Answer Is Not to Defund the Police’

Turns out, being honest about the defund-the-police strategy (defunding local police, while ramping up funding for the more-willing-to-oppress-the-locals Federal police) didn’t play well with the Independents. The answer from the Biden-Handlers: just focus on increasing funding for the more obedient Federal Police.

President Grandpa (and his Handlers!) are showing us just how manly and capable they are by ordering the military to kill the ISIS guy nobody knows about. Is ISIS still a thing? Doesn’t matter! Flex-flex-flex; Grandpa is just that masculine. Well, minus the Afghanistan disaster. Was anyone held accountable for Fall of Saigon 2.0? I can’t remember that far back.

Looks like we have a scapegoat for all that “mishandling” of the pandemic: HHS chief Xavier Becerra.  His job qualifications? Well, he was a lawyer, and he is also the first Hispanic (“latinex”) to hold the position of HHS secretary.

If it were me, I’d have picked Ladapo. Early Treatment Saves Lives, after all. Hispanic Attorney Becerra apparently doesn’t realize this. But at least Becerra is a Latino, so that should make everyone feel better about all the pandemic deaths in 2021.

Hey, I thought false flag operations were just an Alex Jones conspiracy theory.  Those amazing Russians.  What aren’t they capable of?

Can’t change horses in mid-stream.  Definitely not an attempt at Wag The Dog here. [“Wag the Dog” a movie worth reviewing. I had forgotten just how convincing DeNiro was in his role. I think there is a zero percent chance such a movie could be made today. In ten years?  Oh yeah. “How to kill a few million people without really trying.”]

Wag the Dog with Russia to raise the Biden-Handler poll numbers – what could possibly go wrong??!

That, or this was yet another Xi-dividend from his plan: “10 held by H for the Big Guy.”

Regime Change (Democracy 2.0):

Turns out I’m not the only one with the idea:

Kamala Harris to Supreme Court would open the VP door for Hillary Clinton

Here are three things I’ve suggested that Joe Biden could do to save his train wreck of a presidency.

First get U.S. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, 82, to retire. All right, that is done.

Now nominate Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place.

And then name Hillary Clinton, 74, to take Kamala’s place.

The writer of the piece hasn’t gone to step #4 – the DOJ investigations of President Grandpa that would start mere seconds after Horrible Hillary assumed the VP slot. “My goodness. We found this laptop. All sorts of things are on it. We’re simply shocked.”

In the poll, above, Horrible Hillary beats Grandpa in Florida (46 to 43) in the Primary, but then gets handily beaten by either Trump or DeSantis.

I’m guessing Hillary is pulling every lever she can reach, in order to sneak in in via the back door. I just don’t think she passes the Senate, especially now with Senator Lujan (D-NM) out with a stroke. But it won’t be for lack of trying.

 Michelle Obama: Democrats’ 2024 ‘break glass in case of emergency’ candidate

Michelle Obama. I mean – maybe?

Add her to the following list:

Most Democrats Want Biden to Run in 2024. But if He Doesn’t, Harris Looks Best-Positioned for the Nomination

  • 31% Kamala Harris
  • 25% Not Sure
  • 11% Pete Buttigieg
  • 8% Elizabeth Warren
  • 8% Sandy Cortez
  • 5% Cory Booker
  • 3% Gavin Newsom
  • 3% Amy Klobuchar
  • 5% Other

Not exactly a “deep bench.” Then again, they could always pick that “Not Sure” fellow. He’s looking reasonably popular. Cackles goes to the Supreme Court. She is a Black Female, after all, so she’s fully qualified for the job. That’s how she got to be VP, and that’s how she’ll make it to SCOTUS. But they might have to trot out a really lame candidate first, and then “back off” to Cackles, which everyone will finally vote for as a “great-relief-bullet-dodged” mainstream candidate.

Finally, The Shoes Left to Drop

First Shoe/My Trade of the Month

Long Funeral Homes, Short Life Insurers? Ex-Blackrock Fund Manager Discovers Disturbing Trends In Mortality

I’m guessing the trade might be legit – although the author points out, this is not financial advice – but it might be a decent opportunity at least as long as the insurers continue to swallow the Safe & Effective party line.  Since there is real money involved, I’m also guessing this opportunity won’t last too long.

If they really “follow the money”, the life insurers will raise life insurance rates on the vaccinated.  How long can they deny reality?  Again, real money depends on the outcome here.  And no part of the Oligarchy likes to lose money.

I have no position at this time.

The Second Shoe

The Pfizer FDA data, which both FDA and Pfizer are desperate to keep concealed.  We don’t know what’s in there, but from the near-panic displayed by both organizations to keep this information under wraps, we can assume the information is career-ending-bad.

Just imagine: a whistleblower is so shocked by the contents, he walks out of FDA bearing a disk with all the files on it.

The Third Shoe

This medical data from the US DoD is explosive. Mainstream media has been ordered to ignore it.

According to an insider I spoke to, around 40% of military docs realize what is going on, but doctors in the military can’t speak out against the vaccine because they are ordered not to say anything.

The DoD is in a panic about this leaking out. This data wasn’t ever supposed to leak out. The only reason it leaked out is due to the efforts of three whistleblowers inside the DoD. According to an insider I spoke to, the DoD has no idea how they are going to cover it up

“Faith in military medicine among the force was already somewhere near the garbage can pre-COVID…now it is sitting somewhere six feet under in the landfill. Between the mask and vaccine coercion the rank and file’s trust of the medical community is at an all time low.”

There is evidence that mainstream media reporters have been instructed not to cover this story or talk to Tom Renz.

The correct numbers are shown below (a 200% increase means the numbers increased by a factor of 3).

  1. Hypertension – 2,081% increase
  2. Diseases of the nervous system – 948% increase
  3. Malignant neoplasms of esophagus – 794% increase
  4. Multiple sclerosis – 580% increase
  5. Malignant neoplasms of digestive organs – 524% increase
  6. Guillain-Barre syndrome – 451% increase
  7. Breast cancer – 387% increase
  8. Demyelinating – 387% increase
  9. Neoplasms of thyroid and other endocrine glands – 374% increase
  10. Female infertility – 372% increase
  11. Pulmonary embolism – 368% increase
  12. Migraines – 352% increase
  13. Ovarian dysfunction – 337% increase
  14. Testicular cancer – 269% increase
  15. Tachycardia – 202% increase

These are huge numbers. Steve Kirsch presents a fantastic case. I’ve seen the spreadsheet he’s referring to; it is just emotionally overwhelming.

This news will eventually get out, although I can’t say when. Too many insiders know. I mean, 40% of all military doctors? That’s a very large number.

Any politician standing in the way – attempting to keep this coverup going, which is vastly more important than Watergate ever was, at the expense of the lives of our soldiers – will be removed from government service. Anyone responsible for instituting any part of this forced “vaccination” campaign will also be removed from government service.

My advice: flee now, while you still can. Sec Def Austin: I recommend you run back to Raytheon. No liability at all there. Tell the press: “you want to spend more time with your family.” Or whatever.

If all three of these “shoes” drop prior to the midterms – it is possible that the Democratic Party will simply cease to exist, as a large number of rats flee this particular sinking ship.

Their only hope is for “something bigger” to come along. An asteroid striking the earth – something like that.

Never a dull moment!